A Bayesian Framework for Evaluating Scenario Compatibility in Generative Population Synthesis
Authors: Zhenlin Qin, Leizhen Wang, Yancheng Ling, Zhenliang Ma
Abstract
Scenario-based transportation analysis specifies future assumptions through aggregate population targets, whereas generative population synthesis models produce detailed individual-level realizations. When scenario targets are imposed on generative models, current practice relies on deterministic marginal calibration, implicitly assuming that the targets are compatible with the model's learned structural support. However, whether scenario-level constraints lie within the generative support--and how strongly they distort structural uncertainty--remains largely unexamined. We propose an ensemble-based Bayesian updating framework to quantify scenario compatibility in conditional population synthesis. A population-aware conditional variational autoencoder is developed to learn a distribution over plausible population structures while preserving aggregate fidelity. An ensemble of realizations sampled from the learned prior provides an empirical approximation of structural uncertainty. Scenario targets are treated as probabilistic evidence over aggregate statistics, and posterior weights are obtained through Bayesian updating across the ensemble. Scenario compatibility is quantified using effective sample size (ESS), which measures posterior concentration and the compression of structural uncertainty induced by conditioning. Experiments demonstrate that scenario impact depends not only on target magnitude but also on alignment with the learned joint structure, and reveal structural failure modes when targets fall outside prior ensemble support. The proposed framework provides a probabilistic diagnostic model for evaluating scenario feasibility and structural consistency before downstream projection and transportation planning.
Data-driven generative models can extend partially observed simulation trajectories into ensembles of alternative future scenarios. However, consistency with a learned trajectory distribution does not ensure that generated continuations satisfy the structural conditions of the simulated system. This paper presents a method for learned scenario continuation and post-generation structural validation in dynamic graph simulations. A conditional diffusion model generates future graph-state trajectories from partial histories, while an external symbolic layer evaluates each continuation using a Boolean admissibility indicator and a continuous violation score. This information supports hard filtering and soft weighting, with optional projection considered as a deterministic repair baseline. The method is evaluated on two controlled dynamic-graph regimes sharing the same continuation architecture and training protocol but differing in dimensionality and dependency complexity. Evaluation considers invalid probability mass, scenario retention, effective sample size, diversity, robustness, and calibration. In the compact positive-control regime, unconstrained invalid mass is 0.002996, indicating near-complete overlap between the learned and admissible scenario spaces. In the medium-complexity regime, invalid mass rises to 0.155929. Hard filtering removes all invalid scenarios while retaining 84.4% of generated continuations. Soft weighting preserves an effective sample size ratio of 0.998764 but reduces invalid mass only to 0.148807. These results show that learned-distribution support, structural admissibility, and probability calibration can diverge and should therefore be assessed separately in learned simulation-scenario generation and management.
Michael Romei de Socio, Gian Luca Pozzato, Alessio Merlo
Travel survey data are essential for transportation planning and travel behavior analysis, yet collecting large-scale representative samples is costly and time-consuming. A practical alternative is to generate synthetic survey records from a few-shot sample. However, such samples provide incomplete coverage of heterogeneous traveler groups and insufficient evidence for recovering the complex dependencies between demographic characteristics and travel behavior. Existing approaches have complementary limitations. Probabilistic generative models such as Bayesian networks (BNs) offer explicit distributional control, but structures learned from few-shot samples may omit meaningful dependencies or retain spurious ones. Large language models (LLMs) can help address these difficulties in BN structure learning by providing behavioral knowledge that complements the limited statistical evidence. We therefore propose LEBGen, an LLM-enhanced BN framework that uses this knowledge to refine network structure for few-shot travel survey data generation. Specifically, the LLM first identifies traveler personas from demographic attribute and travel behavior statistics, then recovers dependencies missed by the persona-augmented BN structure and prune spurious ones. The refined BN is parameterized exclusively from the observed data to generate synthetic records. Under a 2% few-shot setting on the 2022 Hong Kong Travel Characteristics Survey, LEBGen reduces the mean marginal Jensen-Shannon divergence from 0.0671 to 0.0091 and the mean absolute Cramer's V error by 14.3% over the best-performing baseline, substantially improving both distributional and dependency fidelity.
Closed-loop traffic simulation remains challenging because it must generate interactive multi-agent behaviors that are scene-consistent and controllable throughout rollout. Prior diffusion-based approaches achieve strong realism, but their computational cost can hinder deployment in time-constrained replanning loops for autonomous vehicle planning and simulation. We present a diffusion-based scenario generation framework conditioned on instance-centric scene context and multimodal proposal priors, with optional test-time guidance for shaping safety-critical behaviors. A compact action-latent representation and proposal-based initialization improve sampling efficiency and reduce per-step runtime without retraining. Experiments on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset demonstrate a favorable balance among realism, safety, and controllability across diverse interactive scenarios, while showing that test-time guidance enables systematic trade-offs among competing objectives.
Shubham Vaijanath Phoolari, Aleyna Kara, Christoph Lauer +1