The Curvature Shadow: An Apparent Failure of Maximum-Entropy Equilibrium Selection is a Removable Artifact

Many two-player zero-sum games admit not a unique Nash equilibrium but a convex set of them: a polytope of profiles that all share the minimax value V* yet prescribe different behaviour. Standard solvers each converge to some equilibrium and are treated as interchangeable. We ask whether they instead select different members of the Nash set, systematically as a function of the algorithm rather than the seed. Using a tabular, exactly solvable testbed of six games with analytically known Nash sets -- including a two-dimensional Nash polytope and Kuhn poker -- we find that (i) selection is determined by the algorithm, not the seed, but families differ only on asymmetric Nash sets; (ii) regularized last-iterate methods (R-NaD, magnetic mirror descent) select the maximum-entropy member, the information projection of their uniform reference onto the Nash set -- exactly on the 2-D polytope and at 99.7% of maximum entropy in Kuhn -- while regret-averaging methods (CFR, CFR+, fictitious play) drift to a lower-entropy face; we confirm this on a randomized 180-game ensemble, where R-NaD attains the maximum-entropy member in 100% of converged games while CFR+ sits strictly below it in 94% (paired Wilcoxon p < 10^-27); (iii) the selected member has downstream consequences against sub-optimal opponents that scale with sequential/hidden-information structure but stay bounded -- in Kuhn the max-entropy member is a strictly better hedge, whereas on the matrix games the members differ without either dominating. We also report two negative results correcting common intuitions: removing CFR's positive-orthant (max(R,0)) projection does not eliminate boundary drift; and R-NaD's selection is anchor-following, not initialization-independent. We state the maximum-entropy / I-projection characterization as a strongly data-supported conjecture, checked throughout against analytic ground truth.

Regularized self-play -- the family behind DeepNash's Stratego play -- drives a two-player zero-sum policy to a Nash equilibrium by best-responding to a slowly moving, entropy-regularized reference policy $ρ$. When the game has a polytope of value-equivalent equilibria, the regularizer silently breaks the tie: with a uniform reference it selects the maximum-entropy member, the I-projection of $ρ$ onto the Nash set. Can the reference be used to choose the equilibrium on purpose? On five exactly solvable games plus a 2-D polytope, with exact best responses and equivalence tests over independent seeds, anchoring the reference at a target member and refining steers self-play to that member with mean coordinate error 0.007 at median exploitability $5\times10^{-5}$, TOST-equivalent to the request within $\pm0.05$; the anchoring persists through refinement and follows the reference, not the initialization. Selection follows the reach-weighted I-projection (slope 0.969 [0.950, 0.987]). We report with equal emphasis where the story breaks: fixed off-manifold references cost 0.08-0.25 exploitability; stiff or flat families require a smaller mirror step, set by a pre-registered rule; boundary targets undershoot; curvature predicts where boundary saturation bites (rank correlation 0.90, p=0.037) while interior precision is curvature-independent. Table and MLP steering maps are equivalent within $\pm0.03$ at every target (30 seeds); matched control arms show attention's robust signature is excess seed variance, any systematic shift bounded at 0.018 and not significant. Against a best response the selection-robustness trade-off is degenerate: steering matters only against fixed, non-equilibrium opponents. The recipe -- anchor the reference at the desired member and refine -- reinterprets the KL anchor of RLHF-style RL as a selection knob, not only a stability leash.

There has been significant recent progress in algorithms for approximation of Nash equilibrium in large two-player zero-sum imperfect-information games and exact computation of Nash equilibrium in multiplayer strategic-form games. While counterfactual regret minimization and fictitious play are scalable to large games and have convergence guarantees in two-player zero-sum games, they do not guarantee convergence to Nash equilibrium in multiplayer games. We present an approach for exact computation of Nash equilibrium in multiplayer imperfect-information games that solves a quadratically-constrained program based on a nonlinear complementarity problem formulation from the sequence-form game representation. This approach capitalizes on recent advances for solving nonconvex quadratic programs. Our algorithm is able to quickly solve three-player Kuhn poker after removal of dominated actions. Of the available algorithms in the Gambit software suite, only the logit quantal response approach is successfully able to solve the game; however, the approach takes longer than our algorithm and also involves a degree of approximation. Our formulation also leads to a new approach for computing Nash equilibrium in multiplayer strategic-form games which we demonstrate to outperform a previous quadratically-constrained program formulation.