Runtime hazard monitors for autonomous naviga- tion are conventionally built from geometric quantities: predicted clearance, time to collision, and required deceleration. A model-predictive controller that enforces safety through explicit con- straints computes, as a by-product of every control step, a second information channel that such monitors ignore: the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker multipliers of its constrained optimization, which measure the marginal control effort spent to maintain safety against each obstacle. This paper evaluates whether a horizon-weighted sum of those multipliers, a dual stress signal, provides a hazard monitor complementary to the geometric warnings the same state already supports. We compare it against a battery of fifteen geometric detectors tuned to a matched false-alarm budget, on preregistered held-out crossing scenarios driven through a physics simulator. The stress alarm actionably flags 4.7 times as many collisions missed by the entire geometric battery as the geometric battery flags in return (85 versus 18); combined, the two channels warn of three quarters of the collisions for which braking remained feasible, against under half for the geometric battery alone.
Chance-constrained Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) control is increasingly adopted for navigation in dynamic environments to explicitly bound collision risk. However, these probabilistic guarantees implicitly assume that upstream uncertainties from localization and perception are well-calibrated. In practice, estimators are often miscalibrated, inducing characteristic closed-loop failure modes: overconfidence leads to systematic safety violations, while underconfidence triggers overly conservative freezing or probability dilution. To address this critical gap, our primary contribution is a rigorous evaluation methodology applying proper scoring rules to assess the statistical validity of predicted collision risks during closed-loop execution. Concurrently, Dual-Uncertainty Chance-Constrained Tube MPPI (DUCCT-MPPI) is proposed as a real-time, risk-aware planning architecture. DUCCT-MPPI jointly integrates localization uncertainty via a one-tube Unscented Transform (UT) approximation and dynamic obstacle prediction uncertainty via Monte Carlo aggregation. Through extensive physics-based simulations, the framework demonstrates robust failure-mitigation, seamlessly transitioning to safe, conservative maneuvering without succumbing to functional deadlocks in highly cluttered environments. In highly cluttered environments, DUCCT-MPPI achieves superior robustness, outperforming established Monte Carlo MPPI baselines by nearly 28% in navigation success rate, while simultaneously recording the lowest travel times and minimizing induced social forces. Ultimately, these findings establish that reliable probabilistic safety in autonomous navigation dictates not only expressive risk models but statistically valid uncertainty estimates throughout the entire autonomy stack.
Autonomous systems are increasingly deployed in real-world environments, where they must achieve high performance while maintaining safety under state and input constraints. Although Model Predictive Control (MPC) provides a principled framework for constrained optimal control, guaranteeing safety beyond its finite planning horizon remains a fundamental challenge. In this work, we augment MPC with a safety value function-based terminal constraint that enforces membership in a control-invariant safe set at the end of each planning horizon. This formulation enables real-time synthesis of trajectories that are both high-performing and provably safe. We show that, under an exact safety value function and a feasible initialization, the proposed MPC scheme is recursively feasible, thereby ensuring persistent safety. In contrast to traditional terminal set constructions that rely on local linearizations or conservative approximations, our approach incorporates a reachability-based safety value function for terminal constraints, yielding less conservative and more expressive safety guarantees. We validate the proposed framework through simulation and hardware experiments on a Flexiv Rizon 10s manipulator. Results demonstrate improved constraint satisfaction and robustness compared to standard state-constrained MPC and reactive safety filtering, while maintaining competitive task performance. The full implementation and experiments are available on the project website.
Sampling-Based Model-Predictive Control (MPC) algorithms are a flexible class of controllers used for navigation on a wide range of robotic systems. Historically, such approaches have lacked hard safety guarantees, a shortcoming which we remedy in this work by computing guaranteed reachable-set overapproximations online with a fast, interval-based pipeline. We show that our method achieves similar performance to a state-of-the-art reachability-based planner without the need for the expensive pre-computation step, and can be scaled to systems that are infeasible using existing approaches. Finally, we demonstrate that our technique reduces safety violations by over 99% in a racing simulation and successfully controls a model racecar on real hardware experiments without crashes.