Learning to Forecast Crop Growth from Earth Observation Data

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is a fundamental biophysical variable governing land-atmosphere interactions; however, LAI forecasting at high spatial resolution remains an unsolved challenge. While recent machine learning approaches have demonstrated LAI estimation at point or regional scales, none provides a gridded, meteorology-driven prognostic forecast suitable for subseasonal land surface and climate modeling applications. Here we present a sequence-to-sequence Convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) framework that generates daily 1-km LAI forecasts up to 30 days ahead, driven by historical LAI sequences and daily meteorological forcing including temperature and precipitation. Trained and evaluated over the South-Central United States -- a region of strong climate gradients and diverse vegetation -- the model achieves a domain-averaged RMSE of 0.36 at a 30-day lead time, more than a third lower than the persistence baseline. Forecast skill remains robust across seasons, geographic distributions, and plant functional types, including forests, grasslands, shrublands, and croplands. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of skillful LAI forecasting at a 30-day horizon at 1-km resolution.

Machine learning, and deep networks in particular, are increasingly used to derive higher-level Earth observation (EO) products such as annual land-cover and crop-type maps. Many are generated operationally: each year a new acquisition is processed, typically with the same model, extending a multi-year archive. In the process these systems accumulate two kinds of useful signal that are almost never fed back into the model: the system's own archive of past predictions, and ancillary layers produced by other partners in a processing consortium. Both are normally used outside the network, as rule-based post-processing or a fixed input mask. Using the Copernicus Land Monitoring Service High Resolution Layer (HRL) Croplands crop-type product as a testbed, we show that bringing both signals inside the model turns a single-year, single-task pixel classifier into one that reasons across years. We introduce a Crop Type (CTY) embedding encoder that represents each past prediction as a confidence-scaled, time-ordered categorical token and attends over the year axis, and we study how the externally provided Base Vegetation Layer (BVL) mask should be represented in the model's inputs and outputs. To compare designs fairly when they relabel non-crop pixels, we evaluate on the 18 crop classes only and report precision and recall separately. On a pan-European dataset of about 5.4M labelled pixels, adding the prediction history raises crop-only F1 by 1.6 percentage points (pp) and, more importantly, corrects a recall-skewed error profile, with the largest gains on perennial and tree crops (olives +4.6, fruits +3.7, nuts +3.2 pp). Representing the BVL mask consistently in both the history and the target year adds about 2.5 pp on the crop classes. The approach is a low-cost recipe for any recurring geospatial or foundation model that emits class maps.

The bottleneck of Earth Observation processing chains is not the arrival of new imagery but whether the surface is actually visible when the image arrives. We study this as an observability forecasting problem on EarthNet2021. Given recent multispectral imagery and exogenous weather drivers, the goal is to predict whether the next acquisition will be usable and, if not, when a usable view is likely to return. To do this, we adapt LeWorldModel, a joint-embedding predictive architecture world model, to cloud-aware Earth Observation sequences. The final pipeline converts raw minicubes into episodic HDF5 sequences with five image channels (blue, green, red, near-infrared, cloud mask) and eight meteorological and calendar covariates. The resulting model has 18.0M trainable parameters and is trained from scratch on 23,904 training episodes. The trained leWorldModel is evaluated under a locked protocol: linear probes are fit on train only, calibration choices are set on an internal validation split, and the fitted heads are then frozen for valsplit, IID, OOD, and extreme evaluation. On the full frozen-bundle observability benchmark, LeWorldModel consistently outperforms persistence. For next-step usability, balanced accuracy ranges from 0.769 to 0.887, compared with 0.493 to 0.556 for persistence. For exact first-usable-horizon prediction, accuracy ranges from 0.602 to 0.806, compared with 0.120 to 0.369 for persistence. Against a frozen LightGBM baseline fit on the same training windows, LeWorldModel is better on continuous clear/cloud regression and on exact recovery timing on valsplit, IID, and extreme, while LightGBM is stronger on the simpler binary any-usable-within-six task and is more robust on OOD. In separate sampled diagnostic analyses, LeWM also produces strong ranking-based anomaly signals under synthetic temporal inconsistencies.