Longitudinal Bayesian Learning of Continuous Disease Position across the Alzheimer's Disease Continuum

Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression is a longitudinal process with subtle pathological cues in the early stages. Yet, computational constraints have limited most neuroimaging models to either compromise spatial information or limit the number of longitudinal scans. We aim to overcome this bottleneck and fully leverage high-resolution, variable-length T1w structural MRI (4D sMRI) scan sequences. We introduce Parcel2Progression (P2P), a Longitudinal Transformer Framework which tackles this challenge using an Atlas-guided Parcel Encoder that tokenizes 3D scans into a set of richer anatomically grounded representations. A Longitudinal Transformer then integrates irregular, arbitrary-length longitudinal visits with patient age. This synergy delivers two key advantages: (1) parcel-specific interpretability, and (2) computational tractability for long-term analysis, which scales linearly with the number of scans compared to a naive quadratic 4D ViT cost. P2P outperforms prior works and baselines in both MCI (Mild Cognitive Impairment) to AD conversion prediction and AD vs. CN (Cognitively Normal) classification tasks across ADNI, AIBL, and MIRIAD datasets. Leveraging longitudinal scans boosts performance over single-scan baselines by up to 5% and 7% in balanced accuracy for AD classification and MCI conversion prediction tasks, respectively. Interpretability analysis using parcel saliencies and attention rollouts reveals clinically consistent atrophy patterns in AD and MCI subjects. We also demonstrate the frameworks' reliability in anomaly detection using a synthetic dataset, and test the model's generalizability for other neurodegenerative diseases like Frontotemporal Dementia.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression is often described through the amyloid-tau-neurodegeneration, or AT(N), cascade. However, most longitudinal models represent this cascade either as a fixed sequence of biomarkers or as a black-box forecasting task. This makes it difficult to determine when biologically guided biomarker relationships influence future regional pathology. In this study, we introduce Bayesian Networks with Latent Time Embedding (BN-LTE), a Bayesian structural framework for stage-aware modeling of AD progression. BN-LTE estimates disease pseudotime from baseline biomarker profiles and constrains directed dependencies according to biologically plausible AT(N) ordering. Posterior spline-varying structural equations are then used to link initial multimodal measurements with future annualized regional tau-PET change. Across repeated subject-disjoint evaluations using ADNI data, BN-LTE shows strong spatial reconstruction of tau progression compared with the included forecasting baselines. Beyond spatial reconstruction, BN-LTE recovers posterior stage-varying AT(N)-constrained effects and identifies a mid-pseudotime window of amyloid sensitivity. This window is supported by model-implied g-formula contrasts, root-adjusted AIPW, mechanism-sensitive ablations, and robustness analyses across spline and prior specifications. Overall, these findings position BN-LTE as a Bayesian structural framework for forecasting tau progression while examining stage-dependent AT(N)-cascade mechanisms in observational longitudinal neuroimaging data. Our code is available at https://github.com/danleneurocom/BN-LTE.

Predicting whether an individual with Alzheimer's disease will experience mild or severe disease progression is essential for personalized treatment. Typically, practitioners seek to predict the distribution of a discrete disease score, conditional on an individual's current MRI volume and their historical disease trajectory. Classical statistical regression models and single-task neural networks are not well-suited for this purpose because fitting separate models is infeasible (since each individual typically has few observations), while ignoring individual-level correlation leads to poor generalization. Meta-learning, in contrast, provides a natural avenue to dynamically predict distributions without retraining and model nonlinear relationships between the outcome and covariates. Motivated by this, we propose a Bayesian meta-learner that is trained on multiple individuals but tailors the predictive disease score distribution to each individual's historical data. Our model predicts on unseen individuals without retraining, scales linearly with the number of historical observations, and is guaranteed to be less overconfident when predicting long-term disease scores compared to its deterministic counterpart. On real-world data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database, our model achieves performance competitive with both single-task models and deterministic meta-learners, while substantially improving performance when predicting long-term disease progression.