LM-X: Explainable Vision--Language--Action Modeling via Progress, Event, and Uncertainty Prediction

Vision-language-action (VLA) models have emerged as generalist robotic controllers capable of mapping visual observations and natural language instructions to continuous action sequences. However, VLAs provide no calibrated measure of confidence in their action predictions, thus limiting their reliability in real-world settings where uncertainty and failures must be anticipated. To address this problem we introduce ReconVLA, a reliable conformal model that produces uncertainty-guided and failure-aware control signals. Concretely, our approach applies conformal prediction directly to the action token outputs of pretrained VLA policies, yielding calibrated uncertainty estimates that correlate with execution quality and task success. Furthermore, we extend conformal prediction to the robot state space to detect outliers or unsafe states before failures occur, providing a simple yet effective failure detection mechanism that complements the action-level uncertainty. We evaluate ReconVLA in both simulation and real robot experiments across diverse manipulation tasks. Our results show that conformalized action predictions consistently improve failure anticipation, reduce catastrophic errors, and provide a calibrated measure of confidence without retraining or modifying the underlying VLA.

Recent progress in large-scale robotic datasets and vision-language models (VLMs) has advanced research on vision-language-action (VLA) models. However, existing VLA models still face two fundamental challenges: (i) producing precise low-level actions from high-dimensional observations, (ii) bridging domain gaps across heterogeneous data sources, including diverse robot embodiments and human demonstrations. Existing methods often encode latent variables from either visual dynamics or robotic actions to guide policy learning, but they fail to fully exploit the complementary multi-modal knowledge present in large-scale, heterogeneous datasets. In this work, we present X Robotic Model 1 (XR-1), a novel framework for versatile and scalable VLA learning across diverse robots, tasks, and environments. XR-1 introduces the \emph{Unified Vision-Motion Codes (UVMC)}, a discrete latent representation learned via a dual-branch VQ-VAE that jointly encodes visual dynamics and robotic motion. UVMC addresses these challenges by (i) serving as an intermediate representation between the observations and actions, and (ii) aligning multimodal dynamic information from heterogeneous data sources to capture complementary knowledge. To effectively exploit UVMC, we propose a three-stage training paradigm: (i) self-supervised UVMC learning, (ii) UVMC-guided pretraining on large-scale cross-embodiment robotic datasets, and (iii) task-specific post-training. We validate XR-1 through extensive real-world experiments with more than 14,000 rollouts on six different robot embodiments, spanning over 120 diverse manipulation tasks. XR-1 consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines such as $π_{0.5}$, $π_0$, RDT, UniVLA, and GR00T-N1.5 while demonstrating strong generalization to novel objects, background variations, distractors, and illumination changes. Our project is at https://xr-1-vla.github.io/.

Vision-language-action models (VLAs) are moving rapidly towards deployment as general-purpose manipulation policies, but we currently lack basic tools for understanding what these models represent internally or for monitoring them at runtime. Leveraging ideas from mechanistic interpretability, we probe the residual stream of $π_{0.5}$ and find that task progress, the normalized time remaining in a trajectory, is linearly readable from the activations. We find that this signal is present in the pretrained PaliGemma backbone prior to training on any robot-specific data. A single linear probe generalizes to unseen tasks and varies under language counterfactuals when trained on multi-prompt data, but does not enable meaningful steering of the policy. These properties make the signal directly useful for instrumenting deployed VLAs. We use the probe as a simple label-free OOD detector, which detects stalled task progress, and find it competitive with state-of-the-art methods. Our results suggest that VLAs have rich, linearly readable internal representations of semantic quantities like task progress, and that learning to read these signals offers a lightweight, interpretable path toward monitoring deployed visuomotor policies.