Technical Comparative Benchmarking Study: Advanced AI Hybrid Methods for Renewable Energy Farm Optimization and Forecasting

Wound rotor synchronous motors have emerged as a strong alternative that eliminates dependence on REEs. However, WRSM design requires the simultaneous optimization of numerous geometric and electromagnetic parameters, and the high computational cost of conventional finite element analysis severely limits the rapid exploration of the large parameter space. Although there are machine-learning-based surrogate modeling studies in the literature, they generally compare only a limited number of models, exclude deep learning architectures, and do not provide a comprehensive benchmark specific to WRSM. In this study, the performance of a total of eight machine learning and deep learning models from four different algorithmic families was systematically compared for the prediction of WRSM torque and motor efficiency. On a dataset of 3351 samples generated using Latin Hypercube Sampling in the Motor-CAD simulation environment, each model was trained with 10 different random seed values and tuned via Optuna hyperparameter optimization. Different from the existing literature, this study jointly offers a broad model spectrum including recent deep learning architectures such as FT Transformer, a multi-seed reproducibility protocol, and a Pareto analysis of the computational cost-accuracy trade-off. The results revealed that neural-network-based models systematically outperform tree-based models. The FT-Transformer model achieved the highest single-model accuracy with R^2 = 0.9928, producing predictions in 0.33 milliseconds and thus obtaining several orders of magnitude speedup compared to FEA. Model performances were evaluated in a multidimensional manner using R^2, MAE, RMSE, and MAPE metrics.

Accurate production forecasts are essential for the integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid. This paper illustrates how to obtain probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation using gradient boosting trees and an ensemble of weather forecasts. To this end, we perform a comparative analysis across three state-of-the-art probabilistic prediction methods-conformalized quantile regression, natural gradient boosting and conditional diffusion models-all of which can be combined with tree-based machine learning. The methods are validated using four years of data for all Belgian offshore wind farms. We benchmark the models against the power curve and a calibrated wake model as well as a probabilistic method using stochastic variational Gaussian process regression. The tree-based models significantly reduce the mean absolute error in comparison to the deterministic baselines. Additionally, all three methods outperform the Gaussian process baseline in probabilistic skill, while two out of the three also improve point forecast accuracy. The conditional diffusion model attains the best performance, with improvements of 5% in mean absolute error and 12% in continuous rank probability score compared to the probabilistic baseline. Last, the results indicate an average improvement in point forecast accuracy of 17% by using an ensemble of weather forecasts instead of a single provider.

Wind power ramp events which are sudden, large swings in turbine output over short windows are difficult to estimate, and standard models often miss them. Hybrid forecasting approach is built which augments semantic context to ramp-event forecast. Rather than applying an extensive language model directly to predict turbine operating data, we have implemented a pipeline where turbine operating data is converted to simplified text, which is then converted to dense embeddings to be used as inputs for ensemble models incorporated with other features. Testing runs are performed at multiple intervals within the SDWPF dataset, including 10-minute, 30-minute, and 60- minute horizons, with ramp events constituting the highest change in future power output. We check robustness against autoregressive, LSTM, and GRU baselines plus several ensemble configurations, using Diebold-Mariano tests and bootstrap confidence intervals, and we vary the ramp threshold, compress the embeddings with PCA, and validate externally on Kaggle SCADA and NREL data with uncertainty-aware scoring. The semantic-context features produce negligible yet statistically significant gains over the baselines in multiple paired ensemble runs, most clearly at the 30- and 60-minute horizons where these gains hold across different ramp-threshold definitions, and PCA compression helps in some longer-horizon cases. The best context- augmented ensembles rank near the top overall, though the GRU model still posts the lowest ramp-event RMSE at 30 and 60 minutes. External tests confirm the error reduction generalizes across datasets, but the size of the gain depends on both model and dataset. Prediction intervals cover most test cases well but weaken during ramp events, pointing to a localized shift in the data distribution.