Predictive Zonotope Reduction: Precise Runtime Monitoring under Uncertainty
Authors: Vladimir Krsmanovic, Florian Kohn, Bernd Finkbeiner, Milan Simovic
Abstract
Robots operating in physical environments make control decisions based on uncertain sensor measurements, which can lead to unsafe or suboptimal actions. Runtime monitors that check their behavior against safety specifications must represent this uncertainty soundly. Zonotopes are a widely used representation, but continuously incorporating new measurements grows their order unboundedly, so monitors must periodically apply an over-approximating reduction. The choice of the reduction method substantially affects the zonotope's precision, yet existing approaches typically utilize a fixed method throughout the run, even though the optimal choice depends on the current state. This paper presents a Predictive Zonotope Reduction (PZR) approach, which frames reducer selection as an optimal control problem and solves it using beam-search model predictive control. Policy distillation into a small neural policy further provides substantially higher execution speed than model predictive control while maintaining improved performance, enabling uncertainty-aware runtime monitoring on resource-constrained real-time systems. We implement our approach in the RLola runtime monitoring framework and evaluate it on a 5-degree-of-freedom robotic arm simulated in MuJoCo, with sensor uncertainty modeled according to ISO 5725. Experiments on a Raspberry Pi 5 show that dynamic reduction significantly lowers false-positive rates in monitoring compared with static reduction strategies.
Robotic systems must operate under uncertainty while satisfying complex task and safety specifications. Monitoring such specifications under uncertainty remains challenging, as existing formulations typically require extensive data or explicit uncertainty distributions. In this paper, we propose a real-time monitoring framework that reduces data requirements by leveraging data-driven reachable sets for specification evaluation. We instantiate the framework for maritime navigation, where complex specifications arise from traffic rules. We develop a data-efficient pipeline for constructing reachable sets and derive a monitoring formulation suitable for real-time deployment. Simulation and hardware experiments demonstrate robust monitoring under realistic disturbances, achieving improved risk detection compared to state-of-the-art metrics.
Elizabeth Dietrich, Hanna Krasowski, Emir Cem Gezer +3
Sampling-Based Model-Predictive Control (MPC) algorithms are a flexible class of controllers used for navigation on a wide range of robotic systems. Historically, such approaches have lacked hard safety guarantees, a shortcoming which we remedy in this work by computing guaranteed reachable-set overapproximations online with a fast, interval-based pipeline. We show that our method achieves similar performance to a state-of-the-art reachability-based planner without the need for the expensive pre-computation step, and can be scaled to systems that are infeasible using existing approaches. Finally, we demonstrate that our technique reduces safety violations by over 99% in a racing simulation and successfully controls a model racecar on real hardware experiments without crashes.
Probabilistic prediction heads in neural networks typically output either a Gaussian mixture or a single conformal region. Neither separates the distinct sources of uncertainty often present in real prediction tasks: a discrete choice among modes, bounded systematic drift within the chosen mode, and irreducible stochastic noise. We introduce the Hybrid Probabilistic Zonotope (HProbZ), an output head that represents these three sources as binary, bounded, and stochastic generators of a zonotope, and admits a closed-form likelihood by convolution. Sharing the bounded generator across prediction steps couples future predictions algebraically, so observing one step refines the predictive distribution at every remaining step in a single forward pass. We establish that the three generators are identifiable from the likelihood up to permutation, and that an HProbZ density is representationally distinct from any finite Gaussian mixture. The same shared structure provides analytic per-mode risk and distribution-free multi-modal conformal sets at inference time. Empirical analysis on representative prediction benchmarks supports the effectiveness of the design relative to same-encoder mixture baselines, while offering structural properties that mixture or convex-conformal predictors do not jointly provide.