From Visual Attribution to Clinical Reasoning: Explainable Parkinson's Disease Screening from Hand-Drawn Patterns

Parkinson's disease (PD) is the second most common neurodegenerative disorder. Typical machine learning screening methods require PD labels, but the available data is limited by privacy concerns and the need for expert annotation. We propose a label-free face-plus-voice PD screen built entirely on frozen pretrained encoders--a face-expression Vision Transformer and HuBERT--in which no PD label touches any fit; the reference is training controls only. The voice modality uses a synthetic-dysarthria contrastive activation addition (CAA) direction built from time-stretch and breathy degradation of healthy speech; the face modality uses a k-nearest-neighbor anomaly score to the control embedding cluster. We introduce the alignment principle, a post-hoc analysis showing that a synthetic-degradation CAA detector works when the cosine similarity between the synthetic and real disease directions exceeds zero. Measured on the YouTubePD benchmark, this cosine is +0.37 for voice (CAA works, AUROC 0.765) and -0.48 for face (CAA fails; anomaly succeeds, AUROC 0.751). Equal-weight late fusion reaches AUROC 0.802 (95% CI [0.70,0.89]) with NPV 0.95, supporting a rule-out triage interpretation. An overfitting audit shows the voice detector transfers cleanly, while the face-side--and thus fused--AUROC is potentially optimistic pending external validation.

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive disorder in which symptom burden and functional impairment evolve over time, making severity staging essential for clinical monitoring and treatment planning. However, many computational studies emphasize binary PD detection and do not fully use repeated follow-up clinical assessments for stage-aware prediction. This study proposes STEP-PD, a severity-aware machine learning framework to classify PD severity using clinically interpretable boundaries. It leverages all available visits from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) and integrates routinely collected subjective questionnaires and objective clinician-assessed measures. Disease severity is defined using Hoehn and Yahr staging and grouped into three clinically meaningful categories: Healthy, Mild PD (stages 1-2), and Moderate-to-Severe PD (stages 3-5). Three binary classification problems and a three-class severity task were evaluated using stratified cross-validation with imbalance-aware training. To enhance interpretability, SHAP was used to provide global explanations and local patient-level waterfall explanations. Across all tasks, XGBoost achieved the strongest and most stable performance, with accuracies of 95.48% (Healthy vs. Mild), 99.44% (Healthy vs. Moderate-to-Severe), and 96.78% (Mild vs. Moderate-to-Severe), and 94.14% accuracy with 0.8775 Macro-F1 for three-class severity classification. Explainability results highlight a shift from early motor features to progression-related axial and balance impairments. These findings show that multimodal clinical assessments within the PPMI cohort can support accurate and interpretable visit-level PD severity stratification.

Introduction: Objective neuroimaging biomarkers may improve Parkinson's disease motor assessment by capturing brain variation not directly observable from clinical examination. We used interpretable machine learning to predict current motor severity, measured by MDS-UPDRS Part III, from QSM and multiband multi-echo resting-state fMRI-derived ReHo features. Methods: Regional QSM and ReHo features were extracted from 28 participants, including 24 individuals with Parkinson's disease and 4 controls. Thirteen feature-set experiments evaluated imaging-only, clinical-only, imaging-plus-clinical, full, reduced, and multimodal inputs. Support vector regression, Elastic Net, Random Forest, and XGBoost models were trained using nested cross-validation. Performance was assessed using pooled held-out R^2, RMSE, MAE, Pearson correlation, permutation testing, and the proportion of participants predicted within +/-5 MDS-UPDRS Part III points. Results: Imaging-only models carried meaningful predictive signal, whereas the clinical-only model performed weakly. Full fMRI, full QSM, and clinical variables provided the strongest global fit, explaining 45.4% of variance in motor severity. Selected QSM plus clinical variables produced the most clinically close predictions, with 75.0% of participants predicted within +/-5 points and the lowest MAE among top-performing models. SHAP highlighted cerebellar, thalamic, striatal, insular, and motor cortical features. Conclusion: QSM and multiband multi-echo fMRI-derived ReHo capture distinct, interpretable dimensions of Parkinson's disease motor severity. These findings show that structural and functional imaging contribute differently depending on the clinical prediction goal.