Bayesian Continuum Robot Dynamics and State Estimation

In this paper, we present a fully discrete approach for the accurate and numerically efficient dynamical modeling and state estimation of continuum robots. The model is based on geometrically exact beams in a minimal, strain-based formulation and derived in the framework of Lie group variational integrators, allowing to preserve important geometric properties that we exploit to achieve high accuracy and numerical efficiency. We then propose a disturbance observer based on an extended Kalman filter formulation that reliably estimates system states as well as model uncertainties and external disturbances. Experiments on a real system validate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model and observer.

Reconstructing the shape of continuum manipulators from sparse, noisy sensor data is a challenging task, owing to the infinite-dimensional nature of such systems. Existing approaches broadly trade off between parametric methods that yield compact state representations but lack probabilistic structure, and Cosserat rod inference on factor graphs, which provides principled uncertainty quantification at the cost of a state dimension that grows with the spatial discretization. This letter combines the strength of both paradigms by estimating the coefficients of a low-dimensional Geometric Variable Strain (GVS) parameterization within a factor graph framework. A novel kinematic factor, derived from the Magnus expansion of the strain field, encodes the closed-form rod geometry as a prior constraint linking the GVS strain coefficients to the backbone pose variables. The resulting formulation yields a compact state vector directly amenable to model-based control, while retaining the modularity, probabilistic treatment and computational efficiency of factor graph inference. The proposed method is evaluated in simulation on a 0.4 m long tendon-driven continuum robot under three measurement configurations, achieving mean position errors below 2 mm for all three scenarios and demonstrating a sixfold reduction in orientation error compared to a Gaussian process regression baseline when only position measurements are available.

Deterministic dynamics modeling of tendon-driven continuum robots remains challenging owing to uncertainties in material behavior, tendon transmission, friction, and contact. Measured joint configurations and nominal tendon commands do not fully characterize these internal mechanical factors, leaving uncertainty in the subsequent motion. We therefore develop a history-conditioned, physics-informed flow-matching framework for probabilistic dynamics prediction, using motion and actuation histories to predict the distribution of the next complete joint configuration. By recursively sampling next-step configurations under prescribed commands, the model predicts distributions of future whole-body motions. In simulation, scenario-specific models achieve five-second trajectory Energy Scores (lower is better) of 12.05 mm under internal friction variation and 9.29 mm under unobserved actuation disturbances. Relative to the conditional variational autoencoder and diffusion baselines, Flow attains lower Energy Scores and coverage closer to the nominal level in both scenarios. Ablations support history and structural conditioning in both scenarios. On the physical robot, predictions under two tendon-command profiles excluded from training capture the principal motion sequences, with five-second Energy Scores of 11.91 and 11.42 mm, lower than the compared baselines. The predicted-to-measured spread ratios are 1.65 and 1.22 (closer to 1 is better). These results support history-conditioned probabilistic dynamics prediction under incomplete mechanical observations.