Med-AR: Autoregressive Vision-Language Pretraining for Long-Tailed Chest X-Ray Classification and Uncertainty-Aware Evaluation

Chest X-ray (CXR) interpretation is hindered by the long-tailed distribution of pathologies and the open-world nature of clinical environments. Existing benchmarks often rely on closed-set classes from a single institution, failing to capture the prevalence of rare diseases or the appearance of novel findings. To address this, we present the CXR-LT challenge. The first event, CXR-LT 2023, established a large-scale benchmark for long-tailed multi-label CXR classification and identified key challenges in rare disease recognition. CXR-LT 2024 further expanded the label space and introduced a zero-shot task to study generalization to unseen findings. Building on the success of CXR-LT 2023 and 2024, this third iteration of the benchmark introduces a multi-center dataset comprising over 145,000 images from PadChest and NIH Chest X-ray datasets. Additionally, all development and test sets in CXR-LT 2026 are annotated by radiologists, providing a more reliable and clinically grounded evaluation than report-derived labels. The challenge defines two core tasks this year: (1) Robust Multi-Label Classification on 30 known classes and (2) Open-World Generalization to 6 unseen (out-of-distribution) rare disease classes. This paper summarizes the overview of the CXR-LT 2026 challenge. We describe the data collection and annotation procedures, analyze solution strategies adopted by participating teams, and evaluate head-versus-tail performance, calibration, and cross-center generalization gaps. Our results show that vision-language foundation models improve both in-distribution and zero-shot performance, but detecting rare findings under multi-center shift remains challenging. Our study provides a foundation for developing and evaluating AI systems in realistic long-tailed and open-world clinical conditions.

A clinically useful chest X-ray system must go beyond fluent report generation: it should classify findings with tunable decision thresholds, localize them spatially, and derive the anatomical measurements upon which many diagnoses depend. Today's Vision-Language Models (VLMs) treat these as separate problems, if they address them at all, leaving a gap between what radiologists need and what generative models provide. We introduce CARE-X, a chest X-ray VLM that narrows this gap by unifying auxiliary discriminative supervision with reward-aligned generation. CARE-X augments its generative backbone with focal-loss classification and composite-loss grounding heads, co-trained alongside the language-modeling objective. This auxiliary supervision produces discriminative diagnostic predictions with tunable decision thresholds and precise spatial localization while also improving report quality, providing evidence that structured prediction and generation reinforce one another. Building on this foundation, Decoupled Clip and Dynamic Sampling Policy Optimization (DAPO) leverages task-specific reward signals for report generation, visual question answering (VQA), and spatial grounding, directly optimizing the clinical quality metrics that matter in practice. The result is state-of-the-art performance on the majority of metrics across four report-generation benchmarks, 94.0% VQA accuracy on ReXVQA (+6.0 pp over the next-best baseline), and generative spatial decoding that reaches near parity with dedicated detection heads. Separately, to address measurement-dependent diagnoses, we couple Qwen3-VL-4B-Instruct with native tool-calling capabilities for invoking deterministic measurement tools, while retaining full visual access to the image. This hybrid inference yields +43.6 pp average F1 over perception-only baselines across five measurement-dependent conditions.

Vision-language models that answer questions about chest radiographs are evaluated by their accuracy on labels derived from radiology reports. High benchmark accuracy is often interpreted as evidence that the model uses the image. A model that answers from the finding named in the question can score as well as a model that uses the radiograph. Keeping the question fixed, we audit eight open-weight systems by swapping in another patient's radiograph with the same or the opposite label, occluding the radiologist-marked region or an equal region elsewhere, and removing the radiograph or replacing it with noise or a photograph. On 2,548 yes-or-no questions from MIMIC-CXR, one multimodal model answers Yes regardless of the image, another multimodal model changes its answers without following the label, and four systems use the image but keep about half of their correct answers when the radiograph is swapped for an opposite-label radiograph. A medical model that receives only the question text scores 55.3% on the pooled questions, higher than two multimodal systems. It scores 91.8% where every finding is present, and answering Yes to every question scores 100% there. Where the image is necessary, the best multimodal system exceeds this model by 10.4% in balanced accuracy. The categories are unchanged on CheXpert. Confidence is not higher when a correct answer depends on the marked region. In a reader study with three radiologists, the two radiologists who read a balanced set of 200 cases score 86.0% and 82.0%, and the systems score 50.0% to 73.0%. Accuracy does not establish image use, but an intervention on the image can test it.