Drift Inspector: Exploring and Measuring Scientific Drift with Atomic Contribution Claims

Scientific papers advance $\textit{claims}$ that later work supports, extends, or sometimes refutes. Yet existing methods for citation and claim analysis capture only fragments of this dialogue. In this work, we make these interactions explicit at the level of individual scientific claims. We introduce $\texttt{ClaimFlow}$, a claim-centric view of the NLP literature, built from $1{,}617$ ACL Anthology papers $(1979 - 2025)$ that are manually annotated with $5{,}689$ claims and $4{,}871$ cross-paper claim relations, indicating whether a citing paper $\texttt{supports}$, $\texttt{extends}$, $\texttt{qualifies}$, $\texttt{refutes}$, or references a cited claim as $\texttt{background}$. Building on $\texttt{ClaimFlow}$, we define a new task -- $\textit{Claim Relation Classification}$ -- which requires models to infer the scientific stance toward a cited claim from the text and citation context. Evaluating neural models and large language models on this task, we report baseline performance of $0.81$ macro-F1, suggesting that the task is tractable while leaving room for improvement. We then scale this framework to \sim$$13k NLP papers to study claim evolution across decades of NLP research. We show that $63.5\%$ claims are never reused; only $11.1\%$ are ever challenged. Widely propagated claims are more often $\textit{reshaped}$ through qualification and extension than supported or refuted. Overall, $\texttt{ClaimFlow}$ offers a lens for examining how ideas shift and mature within NLP.

How does research evolve, and what substrate would let us forecast where it goes next? Scientific progress is not simply a uniform accumulation of facts: ideas extend prior methods, address known limitations, realize proposed future directions, and sometimes dispute earlier claims. Existing citation graphs usually collapse these roles into a single homogeneous edge type, limiting how we can analyze scientific progress. We address this gap by proposing the SciTraj corpus, the first claim-grounded typed citation graph in which each edge is linked to the specific claim sentence that motivates it. Claim-bearing sentences are extracted from paper sections; four claim-driven relations are verified by NLI entailment against in-paper context, while two similarity-only relations are gated by abstract cosine and year-gap rules. SciTraj contains 32,559 papers from NLP, ML, and Vision (2015--2024), connected by 573,126 directed edges across six relation types, with NLI-verified claim seeds. Using SciTraj, we identify disciplinary siloing in typed citation flow and topic emergence concentrated in Vision and LLM-related work. The corpus also contains 287M typed trajectories of length $\geq 3$, covering 72.8% of papers, and supports a temporally split typed link-prediction benchmark. A year-shuffle falsifiability test separates temporal structure from year-correlated content, and a 3-annotator pilot reports $κ= 0.74$ with 79.9% precision.

Every scientific text is embedded in the writing norms of its time: it reflects earlier publications while also shaping the texts that follow. The growing use of LLM-based writing tools introduces a new factor in this evolving system, but the linguistic changes coinciding with their emergence remain insufficiently understood. We investigate whether the trajectories of scientific-preprint writing changed in rate or direction after conversational LLMs became publicly accessible, using the release of ChatGPT in November 2022 as the observational breakpoint. We compare pre- and post-2022 trajectories across vocabulary, punctuation, readability, and syntax in abstracts from arXiv's artificial intelligence, statistics, and quantitative biology categories and from medRxiv. Using interrupted time-series regression, we find substantial post-2022 changes across multiple feature families and research domains, including increases in average word length, reduced formula-based readability, and declines in maximum dependency-tree depth and sentence-level depth variation. Individual features follow different dynamics: some lexical markers accelerate persistently, while others rise and then recede. Our findings show that isolated marker frequencies capture only part of the shift: changes in the rate, direction, and structure of linguistic trajectories provide complementary evidence of broader post-2022 change in scientific-preprint writing. More broadly, these findings motivate monitoring scientific writing as a multidimensional, evolving system rather than through a fixed set of LLM-associated markers.