Landscape-Dependent Performance of Photonic Quantum Solvers in QUBO Feature Selection for Financial Risk Detection

Credit default prediction is a tabular classification problem in which modest gains in F1 translate directly into reduced financial exposure. We ask whether Instantaneous Quantum Polynomial-time (IQP) circuits can produce features that improve a classifier over both its raw classical baseline and Kernel PCA - the strongest unsupervised classical non-linear alternative - at an equal feature budget. The dataset provides 23 financial attributes per client; for an n-qubit circuit we select n of them, encode each as a rotation angle, and read 2n expectation values back out as new features. The motivation for using a quantum circuit is computational: an n-qubit IQP circuit runs in constant depth and encodes feature correlations in a 2^n-dimensional Hilbert space, whereas classical simulation of its exact output statistics scales exponentially in n. Using the UCI Default of Credit Card Clients dataset and five-fold cross-validation, we find that appending 16 IQP features (n = 8 qubits) to a Logistic Regression model raises F1 from 0.462 to 0.517 (+0.055, p < 0.0001). Kernel PCA, the next-best method, reaches only 0.493 at the same feature count; the gap survives Benjamini-Hochberg correction across 12 tests (p = 0.00007). No other classifier - Random Forest, SVM, XGBoost, or k-NN - benefits, which points to a linear-expressivity mechanism rather than a generic improvement. We also show that how the 8 input features are chosen matters: Random Forest importance-guided selection reaches F1 = 0.523, while encoding maximally uncorrelated features drops it to 0.496, demonstrating that the circuit amplifies informative structure rather than creating it from scratch.

We present a quantum feature-selection framework based on a higher-order unconstrained binary optimization (HUBO) formulation that explicitly incorporates multivariate dependencies beyond standard quadratic encodings. In contrast to QUBO-based approaches, the proposed model includes one-, two-, and three-body interaction terms derived from mutual-information measures, enabling the objective function to capture feature relevance, pairwise redundancy, and higher-order statistical structure within a unified energy model. To suppress trivial all-selected solutions, we further include structured linear penalties that promote sparsity while preserving informative variables. The resulting HUBO instances are optimized with digitized counterdiabatic quantum optimization on IonQ Forte and compared against noiseless quantum simulation as well as two classical dimensionality-reduction baselines: SelectKBest based on mutual information and principal component analysis (PCA). We evaluate the proposed workflow on two benchmark classification datasets, namely the Gallstone dataset and the Spambase dataset, and analyze both predictive performance and selected-subset structure. The results show good qualitative agreement between hardware executions and noiseless simulations, supporting the feasibility of implementing higher-order feature-selection Hamiltonians on current trapped-ion processors. In addition, the quantum approach yields competitive classification performance while producing compact and informative feature subsets, highlighting the potential of higher-order quantum optimization for machine-learning preprocessing tasks.

Detecting credit card fraud is notoriously difficult because fraudulent charges make up less than 0.2% of total transactions. Quantum Machine Learning (QML), particularly Quantum Kernel Support Vector Machines (QSVM), promises richer feature representations by embedding classical data into high-dimensional Hilbert spaces. However, whether this theoretical advantage holds up when managing real-world financial data bottlenecks remains unclear. We designed a controlled benchmark comparing three quantum encodings, Angle, ZZFeatureMap, and IQP against classical models while keeping sample sizes, feature counts, and scaling strictly matched. To handle class skew without corrupting quantum state overlaps, we embedded synthetic minority oversampling (SMOTE) directly into the quantum Gram matrix workflow, raising PR-AUC scores by roughly +0.04 across feature maps. When trained on the full European credit card dataset with 30 features, classical baselines reached a top PR-AUC of 0.983. However, restricting classical models to match QSVM hardware constraints (500 samples, 4 PCA features) dropped their PR-AUC to 0.750. This puts our best quantum result 0.730 PR-AUC using IQP encoding on 150 samples into realistic context. Testing on physical quantum hardware reduced performance further to 0.62 due to CNOT gate errors and thermal noise. Overall, our findings pinpoint two main operational bottlenecks for near-term quantum kernels: the scaling of Gram matrix evaluation and heavy information loss from squeezing features onto small qubit registers.