Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to generate, complete, and transform information in settings where their outputs can shape consequential decisions, raising concerns about their impact on demographic disparities. In this context, causal inference provides a principled basis for assessing fairness, because it attributes observed disparities to the mechanisms that generated them, which a purely statistical approach cannot do even with infinite data. In LLM generation, a query may request several causally related variables, each of which is both an outcome of interest and a possible cause of other outputs, and the information supplied in the prompt need not follow a topological or a temporal order. This calls for methods that can analyze and selectively remove disparities from such a flexible generation process. In this paper we introduce Causally Fair Generation with LLMs (CFG, for short). CFG extracts relevant concepts, grounds generation in a reference population and causal diagram, and removes user-selected causal effects. CFG also allows pathways deemed justifiable for the task's utility to be retained, which is known in legal literature as business necessity. Further, we provide formal guarantees for our method when eliminating all discriminatory causal effects in the adapted population model, under appropriate causal assumptions. We evaluate CFG with four LLMs in three real-world settings based on population data and on a synthetic dataset with a known causal ground truth.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Causal diagrams for the standard fairness model and its LLM adaptation. Panel (b) orders outputs topologically from left to right. Its template includes Yi→Yj for every i<j ; only selected forward edges are drawn for readability. The general formulation permits any subset of these edges.
Figure 2: Overview of Cfg for causally fair LLM generation. A concept agent extracts and annotates concepts from a fairness-relevant query. Cfg then estimates a population model and obtains a causal diagram. A debiasing agent presents the user with supported debiasing choices, checks their compatibility across outputs, and records the selected effects and business-necessity assumptions. Finally, Cfg constructs a causally fair output.
Figure 3: Absolute recovery residuals under topological and non-topological queries.
Figure 5: Twin-network over counterfactual outcomes, related to the hybrid completion setting where the user supplies descendants of X . The upper path represents the factual values of X and the supplied prefix Y≤i , and the generated suffix Y>i ; the lower path represents the recursively substituted world obtained by setting X=x0 .
Figure 6: Standard fairness models for NSDUH, BRFSS, ACS, and Census-Synth. Generated attributes appear in topological order from left to right. In panels (a)–(c), nonconsecutive forward edges are omitted for clarity; each generated attribute also points to every later attribute. Panel (d) is shown in full.
Generator
Agreement (%)
Qwen3-4B
98.96
Llama 3-8B
98.73
Qwen3.8-27B
99.75
Gemma-4-31B
99.99
Appendix
Table 1: Sampled–annotated agreement for Cfg .
Figure 7: Empirical cumulative distributions of absolute recovery residuals.
Generator
Order
Method
Intermediate target
Final target
TV
DE
IE
SE
TV
DE
IE
SE
Qwen3-4B
Topo.
Vanilla
7.79
4.56
2.26
1.11
10.25
8.58
0.83
2.43
CoT
9.64
5.51
4.04
0.81
7.62
9.51
0.73
2.48
RAG
13.92
5.88
7.16
0.88
1.74
4.80
2.30
5.36
Cfg
0.41
0.77
0.36
0.20
0.66
0.49
0.40
0.47
Non-topo.
Vanilla
19.90
12.38
7.85
4.99
30.68
14.59
10.04
17.58
Appendix
Table 2: Mean absolute recovery error in percentage points by generator, query order, and target position for Cfg and the prompting baselines. Dataset contributions are weighted equally after averaging ACS employer categories. Bold values indicate the smallest error within each comparison.
Figure 8: Extended effect-removal results with an empty BN set. The upper four rows show final outcomes under topological queries; the bottom row shows Census-Synth employment under non-topological queries. Columns report the selected effect, or TV when all effects are selected for removal. Intervals indicate 95% confidence intervals.
Figure 9: Causal effect removal for intermediate outcomes under topological queries. Each panel compares the effect selected for removal after debiasing with its original reference value; zero corresponds to complete removal.
Removal setting
Effect
Intermediate target
Final target
Reference
Cfg
Reference
Cfg
Direct effect
DE
5.59
0.75
6.82
1.32
Indirect effect
IE
3.33
1.04
2.62
0.97
Spurious effect
SE
0.76
0.09
2.98
0.08
All effects
TV
8.65
0.64
6.56
0.54
DE
5.59
0.69
6.82
0.40
Appendix
Table 3: Mean absolute effects in percentage points for the reference and Cfg -debiased distributions under topological queries. When all effects are selected for removal, we report both TV and its components.
Removal setting
Effect
Reference
Cfg
Direct effect
DE
5.39
0.19
Indirect effect
IE
4.49
0.98
Spurious effect
SE
1.44
0.07
All effects
TV
8.44
0.97
All effects
DE
5.39
0.26
All effects
IE
4.49
0.65
Appendix
Table 4: Mean absolute Census-Synth employment effects in percentage points for the reference and Cfg -debiased distributions under non-topological queries, averaged across four generators.
Figure 10: Extended effect-removal results for Census-Synth salary with B={education} , for both topological and non-topological queries. Intervals indicate 95% confidence intervals.
Removal setting
Effect
Reference
Topological
Non-topological
Direct effect
DE
6.65
2.25
1.22
Indirect effect
IE
6.96
7.26
6.33
Spurious effect
SE
4.34
0.05
0.08
All effects
TV
9.27
4.15
4.06
Appendix
Table 5: Mean absolute Census-Synth salary effects in percentage points for the reference and Cfg -debiased distributions with B={education} , averaged across four generators.
Model
Name F1
Record F1
In-domain
Out-of-domain
Challenge
Qwen3-4B
95.5
90.8
93.1
87.7
92.3
Llama 3-8B
91.6
85.7
90.4
83.0
78.9
Qwen3.8-27B
97.9
94.3
96.2
91.1
97.5
Gemma 4-31B
95.9
91.4
94.1
86.8
95.7
Appendix
Table 6: Few-shot performance of the concept agent for Cfg on the 100-prompt benchmark. All entries are percentages. Name and record scores are micro-averaged after semantic normalization; the final three columns report record F1 within each benchmark split.
Estimator
Log loss ↓
Brier score ↓
DRF
1.1016±0.0150
0.5487±0.0073
XGBoost
1.1169±0.0036
0.5519±0.0070
Appendix
Table 7: Survey-weighted held-out goodness of fit on NSDUH for the population estimators available in Cfg . Entries are means ± standard deviations across five stratified 80/20 splits.
Case
X
Z
Reference Y order
NSDUH
race
sex, age
education ≺ income ≺ monthly marijuana use
ACS
sex
age group, race, economic region
education ≺ weekly hours worked ≺ employer type ≺ annual salary
Table 8: The twelve graphs used to evaluate causal-diagram acquisition for Cfg . The first two are paper references; the remaining ten are hand-curated examples. Spaces replace underscores in variable identifiers for readability. The symbol ≺ denotes precedence in the topological order. Adding every forward outcome edge to the fixed SFM template fully specifies each reference graph. The target input supplies only X and the unordered remaining names; the Z memberships and Y orders shown here are withheld.
Model
Role macro- F1
Order agreement
Exact graph
Valid output
Qwen3-4B
78.1
56.4
23.3
78.3
Llama 3-8B
73.2
45.8
11.7
78.3
Qwen3.8-27B
95.3
83.3
58.3
100.0
Gemma 4-31B
94.5
87.5
60.0
100.0
ChatGPT 6 Astra (high)
97.1
95.8
85.0
100.0
Appendix
Table 9: SFM diagram retrieval for Cfg on twelve graphs, with five variable-order presentations per graph and model. All entries are percentages, and higher is better.
Method
TV
DE
SE
IE
Vanilla
9.18
7.25
4.92
3.87
CoT
9.96
6.85
5.48
3.82
RAG
9.20
5.07
3.43
9.19
Cfg
1.59
1.85
1.19
0.73
Appendix
Table 10: Mean absolute errors in reference-effect matching with supplied (X,Z) , averaged across generators, in percentage points.
Figure 11: Effect removal for final outcomes with supplied (X,Z) .
Algorithmic fairness studies how automated decisions distribute errors, opportunities, and harms across groups, and how to measure and reduce disparities.
Automated systems built on artificial intelligence (AI) are increasingly deployed across high-stakes domains, raising critical concerns about fairness and the perpetuation of demographic disparities that exist in the world. In this context, causal inference provides a principled framework for reasoning about fairness, as it links observed disparities to underlying mechanisms and aligns naturally with human intuition and legal notions of discrimination. Prior work on causal fairness primarily focuses on the standard machine learning setting, where a decision-maker constructs a single predictive mechanism fY for an outcome variable Y, while inheriting the causal mechanisms of all other covariates from the real world. The generative AI setting, however, is markedly more complex: generative models can sample from arbitrary conditionals over any set of variables, implicitly constructing their own beliefs about all causal mechanisms rather than learning a single predictive function. This fundamental difference requires new developments in causal fairness methodology. We formalize the problem of causal fairness in generative AI and unify it with the standard ML setting under a common theoretical framework. We then derive new causal decomposition results that enable granular quantification of fairness impacts along both (a) different causal pathways and (b) the replacement of real-world mechanisms by the generative model's mechanisms. We establish identification conditions and introduce efficient estimators for causal quantities of interest, and demonstrate the value of our methodology by analyzing race and gender bias in large language models across different datasets.
Large language models (LLMs) can reveal and amplify societal biases during chain-of-thought (CoT) generation. We present COFT (Chain of Fair Thought), a training-free decoding method that applies token-level fairness control at decode time, with distribution-free marginal validity guarantees (under exchangeability) for any frozen causal language model. COFT operates in three stages. First, it creates a masked counterfactual prompt by replacing sensitive spans with neutral tokens. Second, it compares the factual and masked logit distributions through lightweight logit fusion to attenuate attribute-driven biases. Third, it uses dual-branch split-conformal calibration to certify per-step candidate token sets at a user-chosen risk level. We evaluate COFT across six models and multiple bias benchmarks. Our method reduces standard bias metrics by 30-55% (median 38%) while preserving task utility and language quality. Reasoning accuracies remain unchanged within run-to-run noise margins. The computational overhead is modest, equivalent to one additional cached forward pass (<=11%). COFT offers a clear, auditable path to safer CoT generation with significant bias reduction, negligible utility loss, and no requirement for retraining, auxiliary classifiers, or weight access.
Arya Fayyazi, Mehdi Kamal, Massoud Pedram
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA.
AutoML, intended as the process of automating the application of machine learning to real-world problems, is a key step for AI popularisation. Most AutoML frameworks are not accounting for the potential lack of fairness in the training data and in the corresponding predictions. We introduce FairMind, a software prototype aiming to automatise fairness analysis at the dataset level. We achieve that by resorting to the assumptions of the standard fairness model, recently proposed by Plečko and Bareinboim. This allows for a sound fairness evaluation in terms of causal effects, based on counterfactual queries involving the target, possibly confounders and mediators, and the different values of an input feature we regard as protected. After the necessary data preprocessing, the tool implements a closed-form computation of the effects. LLMs are consequently exploited to generate accurate reports on the fairness levels detected in the training dataset. We achieve that in a zero-shot setup and show by examples the expected advantages with respect to a direct analysis performed by the LLM. To favour applications, extensions to ordinal protected variable and continuous targets and novel decomposition results are also discussed.
Alessia Berarducci, Eric Rossetto, Alessandro Antonucci +1
Istituto Dalle Molle di Studi sull’Intelligenza Artificiale (IDSIA), USI-SUPSI, Lugano, Switzerland