Towards Enriching Design-Time Models with Evidence from Simulation and Operational Activities

Cyber-physical systems (CPS) are typically developed by multiple stakeholders who produce artefacts tailored to their specific domains of expertise. The behaviour of these systems emerges from the interaction between those artefacts and their operational environment. Simulation and co-simulation have become essential approaches for analysing CPS behaviour and, through simulation campaigns, developers can explore system responses under changing conditions, including interactions with the environment. However, the lack of details and understanding of some environmentmediated interactions (typically the ones beyond direct sensing and actuation), which remain unmodelled due to their complexity, a lack of time, or a lack of domain experience, hinders the proper comprehension and exploitation of simulation results. To address these limitations, we propose a conceptual framework leveraging the novel concept of Influences to support the iterative and incremental refinement of simulation campaigns and deepen the understanding of the system behaviour. We demonstrate the proposed approach through a case study involving a mobile robot implemented using Simulink/Gazebo co-simulation.

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) operate through a continuous sense-compute-act loop within an open context environment, making it impossible to anticipate all the situations the system will face. To cope with this openness, stakeholders rely on assumptions, formalized into design models. However, these assumptions may no longer hold once the system is confronted with runtime reality, resulting in a discrepancy between expected and observed behaviour known in literature as the reality gap. Existing approaches mainly focus on reducing or overcoming it by making simulations more faithful to reality, with no unified methodology to structure and exploit invalidated assumptions that give rise to this gap as reusable design knowledge. We refer to the persistent reliance on invalidated assumptions -and the resulting false confidence in the design model's operational validity -as design illusions, and argue that they need to be made explicit, structured, and exploited as knowledge to support better design decisions. We propose a conceptual pipeline for illusions-awareness that identifies, classifies, characterizes, and leverages illusions to transform them into actionable design knowledge.

Simulation plays a central role in scientific discovery. In many applications, the bottleneck is no longer running a simulator; it is choosing among large families of plausible simulators, each corresponding to different forward models/hypotheses consistent with observations. Over large model families, classical Bayesian workflows for model selection are impractical. Furthermore, amortized model selection methods typically hard-code a fixed model prior or complexity penalty at training time, requiring users to commit to a particular parsimony assumption before seeing the data. We introduce PRISM, a simulation-based encoder-decoder that infers a joint posterior over both discrete model structures and associated continuous parameters, while enabling test-time control of model complexity via a tunable model prior that the network is conditioned on. We show that PRISM scales to families with combinatorially many (up to billions) of model instantiations on a synthetic symbolic regression task. As a scientific application, we evaluate PRISM on biophysical modeling for diffusion MRI data, showing the ability to perform model selection across several multi-compartment models, on both synthetic and in vivo neuroimaging data.