ReForesight: Occlusion-Robust Re-Identification and Future Occupancy Forecasting for Dynamic Semantic Mapping

Accurate motion forecasting is critical for autonomous driving, yet most predictors rely on multi-object tracking (MOT) with identity association, assuming that objects are correctly and continuously tracked. When tracking fails due to, e.g., occlusion, identity switches, or missed detections, prediction quality degrades and safety risks increase. We present HiMAP, a tracking-free, trajectory prediction framework that remains reliable under MOT failures. HiMAP converts past detections into spatiotemporally invariant historical occupancy maps and introduces a historical query module that conditions on the current agent state to iteratively retrieve agent-specific history from unlabeled occupancy representations. The retrieved history is summarized by a temporal map embedding and, together with the final query and map context, drives a DETR-style decoder to produce multi-modal future trajectories. This design lifts identity reliance, supports streaming inference via reusable encodings, and serves as a robust fallback when tracking is unavailable. On Argoverse~2, HiMAP achieves performance comparable to tracking-based methods while operating without IDs, and it substantially outperforms strong baselines in the no-tracking setting, yielding relative gains of 11% in FDE, 12% in ADE, and a 4% reduction in MR over a fine-tuned QCNet. Beyond aggregate metrics, HiMAP delivers stable forecasts for all agents simultaneously without waiting for tracking to recover, highlighting its practical value for safety-critical autonomy. The code is available under: https://github.com/XuYiMing83/HiMAP.

Predictive mapping can support robotic exploration and navigation by estimating unseen geometric layouts from partial occupancy observations. However, occupancy-only representations may fail to distinguish semantically different structures with similar geometry. This is particularly relevant for indoor doors, which may appear as occupied cells like walls but indicate possible connected rooms or corridors beyond the observed region. This work investigates whether semantic door cues improve predictive geometric occupancy mapping around such ambiguous regions. We modify a subset of the CogniPlan dataset by inserting door-induced ambiguities into partial occupancy maps while keeping the ground-truth layouts unchanged. We compare a geometry-only control model with a semantic-cued model trained on the same modified dataset, where the semantic-cued model receives an additional door channel. Evaluation uses L1 error, F1 score, and Intersection over Union (IoU) over both the full map and a 10-pixel door-region mask. Full-map performance remains broadly similar between models, but localized door-region results show a clear qualitative improvement: L1 decreases from 0.004342 to 0.000025, while F1 and IoU improve from 0.031311 and 0.015905 to 1.000000 and 1.000000, respectively. These results suggest that semantic cues can improve predictive occupancy completion in regions where geometric observations alone are ambiguous.

Existing learning-based occupancy prediction methods rely on large-scale 3D annotations and generalize poorly across environments. We present FreeOcc, a training-free framework for open-vocabulary occupancy prediction from monocular or RGB-D sequences. Unlike prior approaches that require voxel-level supervision and ground-truth camera poses, FreeOcc operates without 3D annotations, pose ground truth, or any learning stage. FreeOcc incrementally builds a globally consistent occupancy map via a four-layer pipeline: a SLAM backbone estimates poses and sparse geometry; a geometrically consistent Gaussian update constructs dense 3D Gaussian maps; open-vocabulary semantics from off-the-shelf vision-language models are associated with Gaussian primitives; and a probabilistic Gaussian-to-occupancy projection produces dense voxel occupancy. Despite being entirely training-free and pose-agnostic, FreeOcc achieves over $2\times$ improvements in IoU and mIoU on EmbodiedOcc-ScanNet compared to prior self-supervised methods. We further introduce ReplicaOcc, a benchmark for indoor open-vocabulary occupancy prediction, and show that FreeOcc transfers zero-shot to novel environments, substantially outperforming both supervised and self-supervised baselines. Project page: https://the-masses.github.io/freeocc-web/.