Beyond Physical Illness: Can Clinical Narratives Reveal Emerging Mental Health Risks in Chronically Ill Patients?

Mental-health risks such as depression, dementia, and suicidal ideation can emerge during hospitalization among chronically ill patients and may worsen without timely recognition and intervention. However, most existing mental health studies focus on patients with established psychiatric conditions rather than patients hospitalized primarily for physical illness. In this work, we investigate whether latent mental-health risk in chronically ill patients can be inferred from longitudinal clinical narratives. We construct a weakly supervised cohort around 4,000 patients from MIMIC-III using mental-health evidence extracted from discharge summaries. A hierarchical state-space framework derives mental-health representations from day-wise clinical narratives and models their temporal evolution for risk estimation throughout hospitalization. Preliminary results demonstrate improved binary risk prediction using the proposed representations and show distinct model derived risk trajectories between risk and no-risk cohorts, providing a foundation for studying emerging mental-health risks in chronically ill patients.