From extreme weather to agricultural consequences with agentic AI

Accurate crop yield forecasting in commercial soft fruit production is constrained by the data available in typical commercial farm records, which lack the sensor networks, satellite imagery, and high-resolution meteorological inputs that most state-of-the-art approaches assume. We propose a structured LLM agent framework that performs post-hoc correction of existing model predictions, encoding agricultural domain knowledge across tools for phase detection, bias learning, and range validation. Evaluated on a proprietary strawberry yield dataset and a public USDA corn harvest dataset, agent refinement of XGBoost reduced MAE by 20% and MASE by 56% on strawberry, with consistent improvements across Moirai2 (MAE 24%, MASE 22%) and Random Forest (MAE 28%, MASE 66%) baselines. Using Llama 3.1 8B as the agent produced the strongest corrections across all configurations; LLaVA 13B showed inconsistent gains, highlighting sensitivity to the choice of refinement model.

Existing agricultural advisories to farmers suffer from several limitations: (a) remain largely expert-driven, (b) do not adequately account for in-season weather, and (c) do not scale to individual farms. In this paper, our objective is to close these gaps by developing Agri-SCHOLAR (Simulation-Grounded Crop Harvest Optimization with LLM-Guided In-Season Advisory Rollouts). Agri-SCHOLAR is a rolling, in-season advisory framework that issues, at intervals of every few days or every week, a personalized advisory using the following information: soil and crop properties, observed weather to date, short-range forecast of weather, and a season extrapolation of weather based on historical analogs. The novelty and depth of Agri-SCHOLAR lies in each advisory being produced by a closed-loop system which couples multiple LLM agents with a powerful crop simulator (such as APSIM in our case). The simulator crucially serves as an evaluation oracle. In Agri-SCHOLAR, the LLM agents propose agronomically sound and feasible bounds on actionable parameters and an optimizer searches within those bounds against a multi-objective reward spanning yield, resource utilization, and economic feasibility. We conduct a detailed 11-year analysis of the maize crop in two selected locations of South Asia and show that Agri-SCHOLAR consistently outperforms the region's standard packages of practice and satisfactorily addresses the limitations of existing agricultural advisories.

Early warning of extreme weather is essential for mitigating the societal, economic, and environmental risks posed by hazardous weather events. However, expert-centered warning workflows are costly, labor-intensive, and difficult to scale throughout the warning-to-action process. Although recent advances in Large Language Model (LLM) agents have enabled the automation of weather-related tasks, existing studies remain centered on isolated scientific tasks and overlook the chain of interdependent processes required for operational extreme-weather early warning. To bridge this gap, this study investigates automated end-to-end extreme-weather early warning through LLM agents. We first develop SIREN-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark comprising 600 question-answer instances across 19 tasks, and covering four individual warning procedures and an end-to-end warning chain. Evaluation on SIREN-Bench reveals substantial capability gaps in existing weather agent frameworks. This motivates us to develop SIREN, an experience-grounded agent framework inspired by experts' use of historical cases, which combines an agentic execution environment integrating heterogeneous weather evidence and tools with a family of agent harnesses that exploit historical cases through retrieval, skill distillation, and predictive modeling. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SIREN outperforms weather-agent baselines on both individual warning procedures and end-to-end warning chains.