Adaptive Inference

When a model knows when it does not know, many possibilities emerge. The first question is how to enable a model to recognize that it does not know. A promising approach is to use confidence, computed from the model's internal signals, to reflect its ignorance. Prior work in specific domains has shown that calibration can provide reliable confidence estimates. In this work, we propose a simple, effective, and universal training-free method that applies to both vision and language models, performing model calibration, cascading, and data cleaning to better exploit a model's ability to recognize when it does not know. We first highlight two key empirical observations: higher confidence corresponds to higher accuracy within a single model, and models calibrated on the validation set remain calibrated on a held-out test set. These findings empirically establish the reliability and comparability of calibrated confidence. Building on this, we introduce two applications: (1) model cascading with calibrated advantage routing and (2) data cleaning based on model ensemble. Using the routing signal derived from the comparability of calibrated confidences, we cascade large and small models to improve efficiency with almost no compromise in accuracy, and we further cascade two models of comparable scale to achieve performance beyond either model alone. Leveraging multiple experts and their calibrated confidences, we design a simple yet effective data-cleaning method that balances precision and detection rate to identify mislabeled samples in ImageNet and Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) datasets. Our results demonstrate that enabling models to recognize when they do not know is a practical step toward more efficient, reliable, and trustworthy AI.

Existing studies on quality enhancement for compressed video (QECV) predominantly rely on known quantization parameters (QPs), training separate enhancement models for each QP setting, which are referred to as non-blind methods. However, in practical scenarios such as transcoding and transmission, QPs may be partially or entirely unavailable, which limits the applicability of these methods and motivates the development of blind QECV techniques. Existing blind methods typically generate degradation vectors using classification models trained with cross-entropy loss, and employ them as channel attention to guide artifact reduction. Nevertheless, such degradation representations mainly capture global compression information and lack fine-grained spatial cues, making them less effective in handling spatially varying artifact patterns. To address this issue, we propose a pre-trained degradation representation learning module that decouples and extracts high-dimensional, multi-scale degradation representations from compressed video content, providing fine-grained guidance for artifact reduction. Furthermore, most existing blind and nonblind methods adopt a uniform inference architecture for all compression levels, ignoring the distinct computational demands of different QPs. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a sequential inference strategy that adaptively adjusts the number of artifact reduction stages according to the estimated compression level. Extensive experiments show that the proposed method significantly improves enhancement performance. In particular, at QP = 22, it raises PSNR improvement from 0.31 dB to 0.65 dB over the previous state-of-the-art blind method. Meanwhile, with the proposed sequential inference strategy, the average inference time at QP = 22 is reduced by 50% compared with that at QP = 42.

Likelihood-free inference (LFI) enables system identification in complex tasks via black-box modelling, abstracting nonlinearity and stochasticity, and infers a domain distribution for adapting agents to parametric deployment conditions. LFI assumes an arbitrary support for sampling, which remains fixed as the initial generic prior is refined to increasingly descriptive posteriors. Misspecified support can therefore yield suboptimal yet overconfident posteriors. We address this issue by using the posterior of an inference step to guide the adaptation of the support using three illustrative heuristics: EDGE, MODE, and CENTRE. Each heuristic interprets the updated belief and enables support adaptation alongside posterior inference. For illustrative purposes, we first study misspecified support in LFI and evaluate the utility of our heuristics using stochastic dynamical benchmarks. We then evaluate posterior-driven heuristic support adaptation for parameter inference and policy learning in a dynamic deformable linear object (DLO) manipulation task. Inference results in a finer length and stiffness classification for a parametric set of DLOs. When the resulting posteriors are used as domain distributions for sim-based policy learning, they lead to more robust object-centric agent performance.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are widely used for their ability to model complex patterns across domains such as computer vision, speech recognition, and robotics. However, larger models, while often more accurate, are computationally expensive and energy-intensive. Since such a cost is typically needed only for challenging inputs, dynamically selecting lighter models for simpler inputs can improve efficiency with minimal impact on accuracy. We introduce PERTINENCE, a runtime method that selects, from a set of pre-trained models, the lightest model likely to process each input correctly. An ML-based dispatcher performs this selection, and a genetic algorithm explores dispatcher training strategies to identify Pareto-optimal trade-offs between accuracy and computational cost. We evaluate PERTINENCE on CNNs trained on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100, ViTs trained on TinyImageNet, and a YOLO-based road occupancy estimation application using real-time intersection camera feeds. Results show that PERTINENCE matches or improves the accuracy of state-of-the-art pre-trained models while reducing operations by up to 36%, with equivalent or lower end-to-end inference time through tunable invocation intervals.

Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI) is a popular strategy for combining gold-standard and possibly noisy pseudo-labels to perform statistical estimation. Prior work has shown an asymptotic \enquote{free lunch} for PPI++, an adaptive form of PPI, showing that the asymptotic variance of PPI++ is always less than or equal to the variance obtained from using gold-standard labels alone. Notably, this result holds regardless of the quality of the pseudo-labels. In this work, we demystify this result by conducting an exact finite-sample analysis of the estimation error of PPI++ on the mean estimation problem. We give a \enquote{no free lunch} result, characterizing the settings (and sample sizes) where PPI++ has provably worse estimation error than using gold-standard labels alone. Specifically, PPI++ will outperform if and only if the correlation between pseudo- and gold-standard is above a certain level that depends on the number of labeled samples ($n$). In some cases our results simplify considerably: For Gaussian data, for instance, the correlation must be at least $1/\sqrt{n - 2}$ in order to see improvement. More broadly, by providing exact non-asymptotic expressions for the variance of PPI++ under sample splitting, we aim to empower practitioners to transparently reason about the benefits of PPI++ in specific applications. In experiments, we illustrate that our theoretical findings hold on real-world datasets.