Adaptive Conformal Inference

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Overview

Adaptive conformal inference studies how to update prediction thresholds as outcomes arrive, helping prediction intervals or sets maintain target error rates when data drift or are selected online. Most methods use coverage feedback to adjust a quantile or significance level; variants add sliding windows, recency or density weighting, regime-specific calibration, and score correction. Researchers assess both coverage and efficiency, such as interval width, in settings including time-series forecasting, anomaly detection, and safety-critical control, alongside analyses using online learning and game theory. The central challenge is balancing narrow predictions and responsive adaptation against reliable guarantees: exchangeability supports finite-sample marginal validity for classical conformal methods, while distribution shift and sparse calibration data can cause undercoverage, and stronger conditional guarantees often require tradeoffs or extra assumptions.

Latest papers

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26 papers3 papers in the last four weeks, against 2 the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

  1. Dynamic Dual-Feedback Conformal Inference for Time Series Forecasting

    Oct 19, 2026Songlin Du, Ling Luo, Uwe AickelinConformal PredictionAdaptive Conformal Inference

    Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, School of Computing and Information Systems, University of Melbourne

  2. Adaptive conformal prediction on the Grassmannian

    Oct 16, 2026Dimitrios Loukrezis, Zachary J. Grey, Dimitris G. GiovanisConformal PredictionRegression Prediction Intervals

    Scientific Computing Group Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica Amsterdam, The Netherlands · Applied & Computational Mathematics Division National Institute of Standards & Technology Boulder, CO, USA · Dpt. of Civil & Systems Engineering Dpt. of Applied Mathematics and Statistics Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, MD, USA

  3. Coverage You Can Steer: Online Conformal Calibration for RL-Driven Hardware-Aware NAS

    Oct 2, 2026Pedro Brandimarte, Nerea Aranjuelo, Marcos Nieto +1Neural Architecture SearchConformal Prediction

    Vicomtech Foundation, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA) Donostia-San Sebasti´an, Spain

  4. Two Conformal Constructions for Adaptive Within-Document AI-Text Screening

    Sep 25, 2026Marco Mandap, Jerahmeel Hipolito, Arcel Galvez +4AI-Generated Text DetectionAdaptive Conformal Inference

    Bulacan State University.

  5. Learning to Adapt and Calibrate: Score Distribution Alignment for Few-Shot Uncertainty Prediction in Medical VLMs

    Sep 9, 2026Xuan Cuong Ngo, Ngan LeVLM AdaptationConformal Prediction

    University of Arkansas Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA

  6. Reaching the Tail: Calibration Diversity Drives Conformal Coverage under Data Scarcity

    Aug 21, 2026Donald AadithiyanRare-Event PredictionConformal Prediction

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Moratuwa, Moratuwa, Sri Lanka

  7. SPACE: Sample-cloud Predictive Adaptive Conformal Ellipsoids for Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting

    Aug 18, 2026Baishi Li, Kelvin J. L. Koa, Ke-Wei HuangConformal PredictionMultivariate Time Series Forecasting

    Department of Information Systems and Analytics, National University of Singapore · Asian Institute of Digital Finance, National University of Singapore

  8. Dynamic Regime-Aware Conformal Calibration for Reliable Economic Forecast Intervals under Multiple Distribution Shifts

    Aug 17, 2026Bogdan OanceaWeighted Conformal PredictionAdaptive Conformal Inference

    University of Bucharest, Romania · National Institute of Research and Development for Biological Sciences

  9. ConformalShift: Targeted Event Reordering Against Adaptive ECG Monitoring

    Aug 4, 2026Arash Vashagh, Yasmin VashaghAdversarial AttacksElectrocardiography

    Faculty of Computer Science, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, New Brunswick E3B 5A3, Canada · Farzanegan Amin 2 High School, Isfahan, Iran

  10. Conformalized Rate-Adaptive Sensing

    Jul 29, 2026Jiawei Yang, Yao ZhangImage ReconstructionComputational Imaging

    Department of Statistics and Data Science National University of Singapore

  11. Simultaneous Coverage and Efficiency Guarantee in Online Conformal Prediction

    Jul 29, 2026Rahul VazeSet PredictionConformal Prediction

    Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Mumbai

  12. Adaptive Multi-Scale Forecasting and Gate-Localized Conformal Prediction for Multivariate Nonstationary Time Series

    Jul 25, 2026Ziling Ma, Junshu Jiang, Ángel López-Oriona +2Multivariate Time Series ForecastingConformal Prediction

    Statistics Department, Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia · NeuroAI Laboratory, Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia

  13. Adaptive Bayesian Online Learning via Expert Aggregation

    Jul 22, 2026Jungbin Jun, Ilsang OhnBayesian InferenceAdaptive Conformal Inference

    Department of Statistics Inha University Incheon, 22212, South Korea

  14. tsbootstrap: Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification and Conformal Prediction for Time Series

    Jul 7, 2026Sankalp GildaUncertainty QuantificationConformal Prediction

    DeepThought Solutions

  15. Doubly Robust Adaptive Conformal Inference for Causal Effects Under Temporal Dependence

    Jun 29, 2026Andreas Koukorinis, Ricardo SilvaCausal Effect EstimationConformal Prediction

    Department of Computer Science University College London · Department of Statistical Science University College London

  16. When Can Conformal Risk Control Certify LLM Outputs? Bounds, Impossibility, and Adaptation for Structured Generation

    Jun 27, 2026Varun KotteConformal PredictionLLM Reliability

    Independent Researcher

  17. SPACR: Single-Pass Adaptive Training of Uncertainty-Aware Conformal Regressors

    Jun 9, 2026Soundouss Messoudi, Sylvain Rousseau, Sébastien DesterckeConformal PredictionAdaptive Conformal Inference

    Heudiasyc - UMR CNRS 7253, Université de Technologie de Compiègne

  18. Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification for Continuous AI Agent Evaluation

    May 19, 2026Yuxuan Gao, Megan Wang, Yi Ling YuUncertainty QuantificationAI Agent Evaluation

    OpenMesh · University of Pennsylvania · Columbia Univer

  19. Efficient Online Conformal Selection with Limited Feedback

    May 14, 2026Sreenivas Gollapudi, Kostas Kollias, Kamesh Munagala +1Conformal PredictionAdaptive Conformal Inference

    Google Research, Mountain View, CA, USA. · Department of Computer Science, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.

  20. RareCP: Regime-Aware Retrieval for Efficient Conformal Prediction

    May 9, 2026Manuel Heurich, Maximilian Granz, Tim LandgrafWeighted Conformal PredictionTime Series Forecasting

    Institute for Computer Science Freie Universität Berlin Arnimallee 7 14195 Berlin

  21. Adaptive Geodesic Conformal Prediction for Egocentric Camera Pose Estimation

    Apr 30, 2026Aishani Pathak, Hasti SeifiUncertainty QuantificationCamera Pose Estimation

    Arizona State University

  22. Safe Control using Learned Safety Filters and Adaptive Conformal Inference

    Apr 20, 2026Sacha Huriot, Ihab Tabbara, Hussein SibaiSafety-Critical ControlConformal Prediction

    Computer Science & Engineering Washington University in St. Louis

  23. Bias-Corrected Adaptive Conformal Inference for Multi-Horizon Time Series Forecasting

    Apr 14, 2026Ankit Lade, Sai Krishna J., Indar KumarAdaptive Conformal InferenceTime Series Forecasting

  24. Staggered Integral Online Conformal Prediction for Safe Dynamics Adaptation with Multi-Step Coverage Guarantees

    Apr 7, 2026Daniel M. Cherenson, Dimitra PanagouConformal PredictionAdaptive Conformal Inference

    Robotics Department, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

  25. Between Resolution Collapse and Variance Inflation: Weighted Conformal Anomaly Detection in Low-Data Regimes

    Mar 24, 2026Oliver Hennhöfer, Christine PreisachAnomaly DetectionWeighted Conformal Prediction

    Intelligent Systems Research Group (ISRG), Karlsruhe University of Applied Sciences, Germany

  26. Adaptive Conformal Inference through the Lens of Blackwell Approachability

    Oct 17, 2025Guillaume Principato, Gilles StoltzBlackwell ApproachabilityConformal Prediction

    Universit´e Paris-Saclay, CNRS, Inria, Laboratoire de math´ematiques d’Orsay, 91405, Orsay, France · EDF R&D, Palaiseau, France · HEC Paris, Jouy-en-Josas, France