Air Traffic Management

Collaborative virtual queueing has been proposed as a mechanism to mitigate airport surface congestion while preserving airline autonomy over aircraft-level pushback decisions. A central coordinator can regulate aggregate pushback capacity but cannot directly control which specific aircraft are released, limiting its ability to steer system-level performance. We propose a noncooperative coordination mechanism for collaborative virtual queueing based on the correlated equilibrium concept, which enables the coordinator to provide incentive-compatible recommendations on aircraft-level pushback decisions without overriding airline autonomy. To account for uncertainty in airlines' internal cost assessments, we introduce chance constraints into the correlated equilibrium formulation. This formulation provides explicit probabilistic guarantees on incentive compatibility, allowing the coordinator to adjust the confidence level with which airlines are expected to follow the recommended actions. We further propose a scalable algorithm for computing chance-constrained correlated equilibria by exploiting a reduced-rank structure. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method scales to realistic traffic levels up to 210 eligible pushbacks per hour, reduces accumulated delay by up to approximately 8.9% compared to current first-come-first-served schemes, and reveals a trade-off between confidence level, deviation robustness, and achievable cost efficiency.

Accurate and reliable aircraft landing time prediction is essential for effective resource allocation in air traffic management. However, the inherent uncertainty of aircraft trajectories and traffic flows poses significant challenges to both prediction accuracy and trustworthiness. Therefore, prediction models should not only provide point estimates of aircraft landing times but also the uncertainties associated with these predictions. Furthermore, aircraft trajectories are frequently influenced by the presence of nearby aircraft through air traffic control interventions such as radar vectoring. Consequently, landing time prediction models must account for multi-agent interactions in the airspace. In this work, we propose a probabilistic multi-agent aircraft landing time prediction framework that provides the landing times of multiple aircraft as distributions. We evaluate the proposed framework using an air traffic surveillance dataset collected from the terminal airspace of the Incheon International Airport in South Korea. The results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves higher prediction accuracy than the baselines and quantifies the associated uncertainties of its outcomes. In addition, the model uncovered underlying patterns in air traffic control through its attention scores, thereby enhancing explainability.

Decentralized air traffic management systems offer a scalable alternative to centralized control, but often assume high levels of cooperation. In practice, such assumptions frequently break down since airspace sectors operate independently and prioritize local objectives. We address the problem of sector overload in decentralized air traffic management by proposing a regulated decentralized protocol that models self-interested behaviors based on best response dynamics. Each sector adjusts the departure times of flights under its control to reduce its own congestion, without requiring centralized joint optimization. A tunable cooperativeness factor models the degree to which each sector accounts for overload in other sectors, while a minimal admissibility rule prevents local updates from creating new overloads. We prove that the proposed protocol satisfies a potential game structure, ensuring that best response dynamics converge to a pure Nash equilibrium under this restriction. In addition, we identify a sufficient condition under which an overload-free solution corresponds to a global minimizer of the potential function. Numerical experiments using 24 hours of European flight data demonstrate that the proposed algorithm substantially reduces overload even with only minimal cooperation between sectors, while maintaining scalability and achieving solution quality comparable to the centralized benchmark.

Flight delay prediction has become a key focus in air traffic management (ATM), as delays reflect inefficiencies in the system. This paper proposes LLM4Delay, a large language model (LLM)-based framework for predicting flight delays from the perspective of air traffic controllers monitoring aircraft after they enter the terminal maneuvering area (TMA). LLM4Delay is designed to integrate textual aeronautical information, including flight data, weather reports, and aerodrome notices, together with multiple trajectories that model airspace conditions, forming a comprehensive delay-relevant context. By jointly leveraging comprehensive textual and trajectory contexts via instance-level projection, an effective cross-modality adaptation strategy that maps multiple instance-level trajectory representations into the language modality, the framework improves delay prediction accuracy. LLM4Delay demonstrates superior performance compared to existing ATM frameworks and prior time-series-to-language adaptation methods. This highlights the complementary roles of textual and trajectory data while leveraging knowledge from both the pretrained trajectory encoder and the pretrained LLM. The proposed framework enables continuous updates to predictions as new information becomes available, indicating potential operational relevance.

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) envisions the widespread use of small aerial vehicles to transform transportation in dense urban environments. However, UAM faces critical operational challenges, particularly the balance between minimizing noise exposure and maintaining safe separation in low-altitude urban airspace, two potentially conflicting objectives that are often addressed separately. We propose a reinforcement learning (RL)-based air traffic management system that integrates both noise and safety considerations within a unified, decentralized framework. Under this scalable air traffic coordination solution, agents operate in a structured, multi-layered airspace and learn altitude adjustment policies to jointly manage noise impact and separation constraints. The system demonstrates strong performance across both objectives and reveals tradeoffs among separation, noise exposure, and energy efficiency under high traffic density. Among the three objectives, safe separation is accorded the highest priority, whereas the relative significance of noise and energy varies by location and is contingent upon financial and public policy considerations. The findings highlight the potential of RL and multi-objective coordination strategies in enhancing the safety, quietness, and efficiency of UAM operations.

Understanding how air traffic controllers construct a mental 'picture' of complex air traffic situations is crucial but remains a challenge due to the inherently intricate, high-dimensional interactions between aircraft, pilots, and controllers. Previous work on modeling the strategies of air traffic controllers and their mental image of traffic situations often centers on specific air traffic control tasks or pairwise interactions between aircraft, neglecting to capture the comprehensive dynamics of an air traffic situation. To address this issue, we propose a machine learning-based framework for explaining air traffic situations. Specifically, we employ a Transformer-based multi-agent trajectory model that encapsulates both the spatio-temporal movement of aircraft and social interaction between them. By deriving attention scores from the model, we can quantify the influence of individual aircraft on overall traffic dynamics. This provides explainable insights into how air traffic controllers perceive and understand the traffic situation. Trained on real-world air traffic surveillance data collected from the terminal airspace around Incheon International Airport in South Korea, our framework effectively explicates air traffic situations. This could potentially support and enhance the decision-making and situational awareness of air traffic controllers.