Belief Propagation

We study community recovery in the sparse symmetric stochastic block model with $q$ communities, average degree $d$ and signal strength $λ$ through statistical decision theory and Fisher information, and obtain three characterizations of the Kesten-Stigum threshold $dλ^2=1$ and of the information-computation gap below it. First, on each community-size profile the minimax risk of any class of rules closed under averaging and vertex relabeling equals its Bayes risk under the uniform prior; the posterior mean is the unique Bayes rule and is admissible, and the Bayes risk of degree-$D$ polynomial rules is the trivial risk times $1-\mathrm{Corr}_D^2$. Combined with known low-degree and information-theoretic results, this gives the gap as a worst-case statement: for $q\ge 5$ there is a window below the threshold in which no low-degree rule beats the trivial risk asymptotically, while an exponential-time rule does on a set of labelings of probability $1-o(1)$. Second, the Fisher information about $λ$ carried by cycle counts is a series with terms of order $k(dλ^2)^k$, convergent exactly when $dλ^2<1$; below the threshold the relative error of every unbiased cycle-based estimator of $λ^k$ stays above an explicit constant, and every cycle-count test has success probability bounded below one. Third, the derivative of belief propagation at its uninformative fixed point multiplies a random perturbation by $|λ|\sqrt{d}$ per iteration, and one EM step taken there leaves $λ$ unchanged. A signal-to-noise computation recovers the condition $dλ^{1/χ}>1$ of Chin et al. for $q=n^χ$ communities and identifies personalized PageRank as a walk count with suboptimal weights. Experiments on networks with up to $3\times 10^5$ vertices confirm the threshold for $q=2$, the hard window for $q=5$, and the many-community scaling.

Representations of translated sentences are similar in the inner layers of multilingual language models -- an observation connected to the platonic representation hypothesis, yet unexplained theoretically. We provide an explanation based on the assumption that data have a hidden hierarchical structure whose abstract levels are shared across languages while surface levels are modality- or language-specific. Concretely, we generate synthetic languages from probabilistic context-free grammars sharing upper-level but not lower-level production rules. In this setting the Bayes-optimal next-token predictor is belief propagation (BP); encoding its messages in successive layers yields analytical predictions that agree well with transformers trained on the same data. The framework explains why cross-lingual similarity peaks in middle layers, coexists with language-specific structure, and strengthens with language proximity, model quality and data exposure. It distinguishes similarity (shared neighborhood geometry) from alignment (shared coordinates), showing that the latter occurs when code-switched data, i.e. mixed-language sentences, are abundant enough. It further predicts that subtracting from each layer the component linearly predictable from the preceding one increases cross-lingual similarity, which we confirm in pretrained LLMs.

Gaussian Belief Propagation (GBP) is a distributed inference algorithm that passes messages in graphical models, making it attractive for scalable spatial intelligence. However, we find GBP most effective locally: it rapidly smooths message errors that vary sharply between neighbor variables, but corrects global errors across distant graph regions incrementally through long-range message propagations. We propose Hierarchy-GBP (H-GBP), an iterative, two-stage framework that accelerates GBP by first solving these global errors with a coarse graph approximation (abstraction) and projecting the results back to the original graph (recovery), then refining the remaining local errors with GBP. We prove H-GBP convergence to the optimum by deriving the combined matrix operator of our abstraction and recovery steps and analyzing its spectral radius. Experiments on linear sparse graphs show that H-GBP converges fundamentally faster than standard GBP. Moreover, we validate H-GBP on two important spatial problems: Pose Graph Optimization (PGO) and Bundle Adjustment (BA). H-GBP markedly accelerates large-scale PGO and achieves state-of-the-art runtime across all tested BA scales.

This paper presents a Bayesian control framework that integrates spike-based dynamics with probabilistic inference for adaptive control. Bayesian inference is widely regarded as a core computational principle of brain function, providing a normative framework for perception, decision-making, and learning under uncertainty. By combining a biologically inspired spiking neural model with Bayesian inference principles, we propose a brain-like control algorithm capable of operating in uncertain environments. We use the mountain car parking problem as a benchmark with non-linear dynamics. Our results demonstrate that the proposed controller can successfully update states in real time and generate goal-directed action plans through spike-driven dynamics. The results highlight the proposed model's potential as a bridge between computational neuroscience and probabilistic control theory.

Multi-robot patrolling requires a team to visit all areas of an environment at regular intervals, typically minimising idleness. A practical extension, motivated by security and environmental monitoring, is to additionally form a collective ranking of all patrol locations by some measured signal, a generalisation of the best-of-n problem to the many-option, continuous-valued regime. We observe that the patrol graph admits a natural dual interpretation: it is simultaneously the topology that dictates agent movement and a factor graph over which spatial beliefs can be propagated. Exploiting this equivalence, we apply Gaussian Belief Propagation (GBP), a graph-based algorithm, to collective ranking using unary measurement factors at visited nodes and pairwise smoothness factors along patrol edges. We compare GBP against simple and visit-count-weighted averaging across a range of sensor-noise conditions in simulation, and validate the approach on four Leo Rovers tracking a propagating radio signal in an office lobby. GBP outperforms both baselines on ranking accuracy, mean squared error, and time to consensus. We find that as noise increases and the task becomes harder, GBP degrades gracefully in simulation while both averaging methods degrade substantially. Hardware trials reproduce the same performance ordering on a real propagating radio signal, supporting the practical relevance of the simulated results.

We show that the natural-gradient stationary condition of variational inference has an edge-local form on a Forney-style factor graph. We start from the Bethe free energy and constrain a selected edge marginal to an exponential family. At a stationary point, the natural parameter of that edge equals the sum of two projected messages, one from each incident factor. Each projected message is the natural-gradient projection of the exact belief-propagation log-message at the current receiving marginal, or equivalently, the gradient of its expectation in the so-called mean coordinates. We call the resulting scheme natural-gradient message passing (NGMP). The rule is local; each edge may carry its own exponential family, and the message a factor sends depends on the marginal that receives it. Compared with variational message passing, NGMP keeps the part of the exact message that the receiving family can represent instead of averaging the factor under the neighboring beliefs. The two coincide when the uncertainty on the edges entering a non-conjugate factor vanishes, and NGMP is more accurate when that uncertainty persists, for example, along a partially observed latent chain or when parameters are filtered through successive data batches. Experiments on Poisson smoothing, heteroskedastic regression, and hourly ETTh forecasting confirm this and show that the gain appears mainly in uncertainty calibration.

Programming adaptive behaviors at the cellular level is a long-standing goal that raises the question of how probabilistic computation can be implemented in biochemical systems. Chemical reaction networks (CRNs) provide such a substrate and have been shown to realize probabilistic models, including hidden Markov models and factor graphs, with dynamics reproducing Bayesian inference and belief propagation. However, encoding these algorithms typically requires prohibitively large reaction networks, and classical CRN reduction techniques do not directly apply. By recovering the factor graph structure encoded in Napp--Adams-compiled CRNs, we transport recent factor-graph reduction results to their chemical implementations, obtaining significantly smaller CRNs while preserving the belief-propagation fixed points on surviving variables.

Probabilistic inference over spatially embedded variables requires beliefs that respect $SE(3)$ symmetry, yet existing equivariant networks produce only scalars and vectors -- not the rank-2 precision tensors needed for anisotropic uncertainty, and single-component messages collapse multi-modal energy landscapes to physically meaningless averages. We introduce Equivariant Neural Belief Propagation (ENBP), a factor-graph framework whose messages are equivariant Gaussian mixture models with sufficient statistics that transform exactly under $SE(3)$. Rank-2 precision matrices are synthesised via equivariant outer products, ingested through differentiable spectral decomposition, and kept tractable by a greedy KL-based mixture reduction that provably commutes with $SE(3)$. On GEOM-QM9 and GEOM-Drugs, ENBP achieves 98.9% conformational coverage at 0.090 $\mathring{A}$ error with sub-second latency -- over $100\times$ faster than diffusion baselines at higher accuracy. On multi-body robotic inference, vanilla loopy BP diverges at 15+ agents while ENBP converges with near-zero collision rates and machine-precision equivariance error (${\sim}10^{-7}$ vs.\ $10^{-1}$ for augmented baselines).

Variable-order Markov models generate sequences over a finite alphabet by conditioning each symbol on the longest available suffix of the generated history. Regular constraints, by contrast, describe finite-horizon control requirements by an automaton: fixed positions, forced endings, metrical patterns, and forbidden copied fragments are all special cases. Existing exact methods already handle regular constraints with belief propagation for first-order Markov chains. The contribution here is the variable-order extension: identifying the state space on which the existing BP-regular machinery must be run when the generator is a variable-order/backoff model. A first-order constraint layer can enforce useful support conditions, but it computes future mass after merging histories that a variable-order generator deliberately keeps distinct. We formalize this mismatch and give the sparse construction obtained by replacing the first-order Markov state with the observed context state, then taking the standard product with the regular constraint automaton. For a fixed trained context graph and automaton, inference is linear in the sequence horizon; in general it is polynomial in the number of reachable product edges. This gives the correct variable-order distribution conditioned on regular constraints without expanding to all K-tuples. The same finite-source interface supports reversible data augmentation by inverse count lookup, matching materialized transposition augmentation without storing transformed corpora. We also separate exact BP inference from generation-time backoff policies, such as singleton avoidance, whose stochastic semantics must be made explicit if exactness is claimed.

Harnessing the predictive capability of Markov process models requires propagating probability density functions (beliefs) through the model. For many existing models however, belief propagation is analytically infeasible, requiring approximation or sampling to generate predictions. This paper proposes a functional modeling framework leveraging sparse Sum-of-Squares (SoS) forms for valid (conditional) density estimation. We study the theoretical restrictions of modeling conditional densities using the SoS form, and propose a novel functional form for addressing such limitations. The proposed architecture enables generalized simultaneous learning of basis functions and coefficients, while preserving analytical belief propagation. In addition, we propose a training method that allows for exact adherence to the normalization and non-negativity constraints. Our results show that the proposed method achieves accuracy comparable to state-of-the-art approaches while requiring significantly less memory in low-dimensional spaces, and it further scales to 12D systems when existing methods fail beyond 2D.

Transformers are the dominant architecture in AI, yet why they work remains poorly understood. This paper offers a precise answer: a transformer is a Bayesian network. We establish this in five ways. First, we prove that every sigmoid transformer with any weights implements weighted loopy belief propagation on its implicit factor graph. One layer is one round of BP. This holds for any weights -- trained, random, or constructed. Formally verified against standard mathematical axioms. Second, we give a constructive proof that a transformer can implement exact belief propagation on any declared knowledge base. On knowledge bases without circular dependencies this yields provably correct probability estimates at every node. Formally verified against standard mathematical axioms. Third, we prove uniqueness: a sigmoid transformer that produces exact posteriors necessarily has BP weights. There is no other path through the sigmoid architecture to exact posteriors. Formally verified against standard mathematical axioms. Fourth, we delineate the AND/OR boolean structure of the transformer layer: attention is AND, the FFN is OR, and their strict alternation is Pearl's gather/update algorithm exactly. Fifth, we confirm all formal results experimentally, corroborating the Bayesian network characterization in practice. We also establish the practical viability of loopy belief propagation despite the current lack of a theoretical convergence guarantee. We further prove that verifiable inference requires a finite concept space. Any finite verification procedure can distinguish at most finitely many concepts. Without grounding, correctness is not defined. Hallucination is not a bug that scaling can fix. It is the structural consequence of operating without concepts. Formally verified against standard mathematical axioms.