Change

We adapted the Reliable Change Index (RCI; Jacobson and Truax, 1991) from clinical psychology to item-level LLM version comparison on 2,000 MMLU-Pro items (K=10 samples at T=0.7). Two within-family pairs were tested: Llama 3 to 3.1 (+1.6 points) and Qwen 2.5 to 3 (+2.8 points). On the full benchmark, most items showed no reliable change (79% and 72%). However, over half the items were floor/ceiling. Among analysable items, change was bidirectional with large effect sizes: 34% improved and 28% deteriorated for Llama; 47% improved and 39% deteriorated for Qwen (median |delta p| = 0.50 and 0.90). Churn was asymmetric by difficulty: low-accuracy items improved, high-accuracy items deteriorated. Domain-level decomposition revealed family-specific reversals: Llama lost physics while Qwen lost law. Greedy single-shot evaluation missed 42% of reliably changed items and falsely flagged 25% of unchanged items. The aggregate accuracy gain is the net residual of opposing item-level movements. We recommend reporting churn rate alongside aggregate accuracy.

Open-vocabulary change detection aims to identify semantic changes in bi-temporal remote sensing images without predefined categories. Recent methods combine foundation models such as SAM, DINO and CLIP, but typically process each timestamp independently or interact only at the final comparison stage. Such paradigms suffer from insufficient temporal coupling during semantic reasoning, which limits their ability to distinguish genuine semantic changes from non-semantic appearance discrepancies. In addition, patch-dominant inference on high-resolution images often weakens global semantic continuity and produces fragmented change regions. To address these issues, we propose MemOVCD, a training-free open-vocabulary change detection framework based on cross-temporal memory reasoning and global-local adaptive rectification. Specifically, we reformulate bi-temporal change detection as a two-frame tracking problem and introduce weighted bidirectional propagation to aggregate semantic evidence from both temporal directions. To stabilize memory propagation across large temporal gaps, we construct histogram-aligned transition frames to smooth abrupt appearance changes. Moreover, a global-local adaptive rectification strategy adaptively fuses local and global-view predictions, improving spatial consistency while preserving fine-grained details. Experiments on five benchmarks demonstrate that MemOVCD achieves favorable performance on two change detection tasks, validating its effectiveness and generalization under diverse open-vocabulary settings.

The vulnerabilities of deep neural networks against singularities have raised serious concerns regarding their deployment in the physical world. One of the most prominent and impactful physical-world adversarial perturbations is the attachment of patches to clean images, known as an adversarial patch attack. Similarly, natural noises such as Gaussian and Salt&Pepper are highly prevalent in the real world. The current research need arises from the above vulnerabilities and the lack of efforts to tackle these two singularities independently and, especially, in combination. In this research, we have, for the first time, combined these two prominent singularities and proposed a novel dataset. Using this dataset, we have conducted a benchmark study of singularity data-point detection using features from several convolutional neural networks. For classification, rather than the popular neural network-based parameter tuning, we have used traditional yet effective machine learning classifiers. The extensive experiments across various in- and out-of-distribution (OOD) singularities reveal several interesting findings about the effectiveness of classifiers and show that it is hard to defend against adversaries when they are treated independently, and inefficient classifiers are selected.

Nonlinear dynamical systems with regime transitions are typically described by ordinary differential equations with jumping parameters parameters. Traditional methods often treat change-point detection and parameter estimation as separate tasks, ignoring the inherent coupling between them. To address this, we propose residual-loss anomaly analysis of physics-informed neural networks, a unified framework that leverages dynamical consistency within the physics-informed learning paradigm. This approach jointly infers piecewise parameters and transition points under a single set of constraints. The method follows a two-stage strategy: First, local physical residuals are analyzed through overlapping subinterval decomposition. When a subinterval spans a true transition point, the residual exhibits a distinct structural elevation in noise-free conditions, which has a non-zero lower bound, enabling effective localization of potential transition intervals. Second, within our framework, change-point locations and piecewise parameters are integrated into a unified physical loss function for joint optimization, enabling simultaneous identification. Experiments on benchmark nonlinear dynamical systems, including Malthusian and logistic growth models, Van der Pol oscillator, Lotka-Volterra model and Lorenz system, demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms traditional decoupled approaches in both change-point localization and parameter estimation accuracy. This study provides an efficient, unified solution for structurally coupled inverse problems in nonlinear dynamical systems with regime switching.

Wearable devices running Human Activity Recognition(HAR) on Inertial Measurement Units~(IMUs) waste energy by performing continuous classification for each window, even during long periods of unchanged activity. We address this with a lightweight change-detection gate: a non-parametric algorithm based on dynamic template matching that runs continuously at only approximately 16kFLOPs per step, requires no offline training, and does not need prior definition of target activity classes. The gate invokes the full HAR network only when it detects an activity change, reducing the computational load by over 67% in realistic monitoring settings. The algorithm is evaluated on smart glasses, smartwatch, and smartphone data, requiring only a brief device-specific calibration phase. The gate achieves 98% sensitivity on UCA-EHAR, ensuring no genuine activity transition is missed, while 75% specificity keeps unnecessary HAR invocations low. Results on WISDM are 97% sensitivity and 76% specificity, demonstrating robustness and flexibility to various settings.

Rapid situational awareness is critical in post-disaster response. While remote sensing damage assessment is evolving from pixel-level change detection to high-level semantic analysis, existing vision-language methodologies still struggle to provide actionable intelligence for complex strategic queries. They remain severely constrained by unimodal optical dependence, a prevailing bias towards natural disasters, and a fundamental lack of grounded interactivity. To address these limitations, we present ChangeQuery, a unified multimodal framework designed for comprehensive, all-weather disaster situation awareness. To overcome modality constraints and scenario biases, we construct the Disaster-Induced Change Query (DICQ) dataset, a large-scale benchmark coupling pre-event optical semantics with post-event SAR structural features across a balanced distribution of natural catastrophes and armed conflicts. Furthermore, to provide the high-quality supervision required for interactive reasoning, we propose a novel Automated Semantic Annotation Pipeline. Adhering to a ``statistics-first, generation-later'' paradigm, this engine automatically transforms raw segmentation masks into grounded, hierarchical instruction sets, effectively equipping the model with fine-grained spatial and quantitative awareness. Trained on this structured data, the ChangeQuery architecture operates as an interactive disaster analyst. It supports multi-task reasoning driven by diverse user queries, delivering precise damage quantification, region-specific descriptions, and holistic post-disaster summaries. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ChangeQuery establishes a new state-of-the-art, providing a robust and interpretable solution for complex disaster monitoring. The code is available at \href{https://sundongwei.github.io/changequery/}{https://sundongwei.github.io/changequery/}.

Moral judgements form the foundation of human social behavior and societal systems. While Artificial Intelligence chatbots increasingly serve as personal advisors, their influence on moral judgments remains largely unexplored. Here, we examined whether directive AI conversations shift moral evaluations using a within-subject naturalistic paradigm. Fifty-three participants rated moral scenarios, then discussed four with a chatbot prompted to shift moral judgments and four with a control agent. The brief conversations induced significant directional shifts in moral judgments, accepting stricter standards as well as advocating greater leniency (ps < 0.05; Cohen's d = 0.735-1.576), with increasing strengths of this effect during a two-week follow-up (Cohen's d = 1.038-2.069). Critically, the control condition produced no changes, and the effects did not extend to punishment while participants remained unaware of the persuasive intent, and both agents were rated equally likable and convincing, suggesting a vulnerability to undetected and lasting manipulation of foundational moral values.

Limit order books can transition rapidly from stable to stressed conditions, yet standard early-warning signals such as order flow imbalance and short-term volatility are inherently reactive. We formalise this limitation via a three-regime causal data-generating process (stable $\to$ latent build-up $\to$ stress) in which a latent deterioration phase creates a prediction window prior to observable stress. Under mild assumptions on temporal drift and regime persistence, we establish identifiability of the latent build-up regime and derive guarantees for strictly positive expected lead-time and non-trivial probability of early detection. We propose a trigger-based detector combining MAX aggregation of complementary signal channels, a rising-edge condition, and adaptive thresholding. Across 200 simulations, the method achieves mean lead-time $+18.6 \pm 3.2$ timesteps with perfect precision and moderate coverage, outperforming classical change-point and microstructure baselines. A preliminary application to one week of BTC/USDT order book data shows consistent positive lead-times while baselines remain reactive. Results degrade in low signal-to-noise and short build-up regimes, consistent with theory.

Traditional change detection identifies where changes occur, but does not explain what changed in natural language. Existing remote sensing change captioning datasets typically describe overall image-level differences, leaving fine-grained localized semantic reasoning largely unexplored. To close this gap, we present RSRCC, a new benchmark for remote sensing change question-answering containing 126k questions, split into 87k training, 17.1k validation, and 22k test instances. Unlike prior datasets, RSRCC is built around localized, change-specific questions that require reasoning about a particular semantic change. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first remote sensing change question-answering benchmark designed explicitly for such fine-grained reasoning-based supervision. To construct RSRCC, we introduce a hierarchical semi-supervised curation pipeline that uses Best-of-N ranking as a critical final ambiguity-resolution stage. First, candidate change regions are extracted from semantic segmentation masks, then initially screened using an image-text embedding model, and finally validated through retrieval-augmented vision-language curation with Best-of-N ranking. This process enables scalable filtering of noisy and ambiguous candidates while preserving semantically meaningful changes. The dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/google/RSRCC.

This technical note provides a first-order formalisation of the logit shift and fact-margin change induced by Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA). Using a first-order Fréchet approximation around the base model trajectory, we show that the multi-layer LoRA effect can be decomposed into a linear summation of layerwise contributions and a higher-order remainder term representing inter-layer coupling.

Non-stationary sequences arise naturally in control, forecasting, and decision-making. The data-generating process shifts at unknown times, and models must detect the change, discard or downweight obsolete evidence, and adapt to new dynamics on the fly. Transformer-based foundation models increasingly rely on in-context learning for time series forecasting, tabular prediction, and continuous control. As these models are deployed in non-stationary environments, understanding their ability to detect and adapt to regime shifts is important. We formalize this as an in-context change-point detection problem and formally establish the existence of transformer models that solve this problem. Our construction demonstrates that model complexity, in layers and parameters, depends on the level of information available about the change-point location, from no knowledge to knowing exact timing. We validate our results with experiments on synthetic linear regression and linear dynamical systems, where trained transformers match the performance of optimal baselines across information levels. We also show that encoding and incorporating changepoint knowledge indeed improves the real-world performance of a pretrained foundation models on infectious disease forecasting and on financial volatility forecasting around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements without retraining, demonstrating practical applicability to real-world regime changes.

We study model-free reinforcement learning (RL) in non-stationary finite-horizon episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs) without prior knowledge of the non-stationarity. We focus on the piecewise stationary (PS) setting, where both rewards and transition dynamics can change at unknown times. We first revisit existing state-of-the-art approaches and identify theoretical and practical limitations that change the current landscape of performance guarantees. To characterize the difficulty of the problem, we establish the first minimax lower bounds for PS-RL in tabular and linear MDPs. We then introduce Detection Augmented Reinforcement Learning (DARLING), a modular wrapper for PS-RL that applies to both tabular and linear MDPs, without knowledge of the changes. In tabular MDPs, under change-point separability and reachability conditions, DARLING improves the best known dynamic regret bounds and matches our minimax lower bound. In linear MDPs, DARLING matches the minimax lower bound when the relevant reachability parameters are known, and our analysis clarifies the structural obstacles that distinguish this setting from the tabular case. Finally, through extensive experimentation across diverse non-stationary benchmarks, we show that DARLING consistently surpasses the state-of-the-art methods.

Diffusion models can be challenged in the low signal-to-noise regime, where they have to make pixel-level predictions despite the presence of high noise. The geometric intuition is akin to using the finest stroke for oil painting throughout, which may be ineffective. We therefore study \emph{stroke-size control} as a controlled intervention that changes the roughness of the supervised target, predictions and perturbations across timesteps, in an attempt to ease the low signal-to-noise challenge via prediction target simplification.

Unsupervised remote sensing change detection (UCD) aims to localise changes between two images of the same region without relying on labelled training data. Most recent approaches either use a frozen foundation model in a training-free manner or train with synthetic changes generated in pixel space. Both strategies inherently rely on predefined assumptions about change types, typically introduced through handcrafted rules, external datasets, or auxiliary generative models. Due to these assumptions, such methods fail to generalise beyond a few change types, limiting their real-world usage, especially in rare or complex scenarios. To address this, we propose MaSoN (Make Some Noise), an end-to-end UCD framework that synthesises diverse changes directly in the latent feature space during training. It generates changes dynamically estimated from feature statistics of the target data, enabling diverse yet data-driven variation aligned with the target domain. Since synthesis happens in latent space, it also easily extends to new modalities, such as SAR and multispectral data. MaSoN generalises strongly across diverse change types and improves the average F1 score across five benchmarks by 14.1 percentage points. Project page: https://blaz-r.github.io/mason_ucd/

Persistent entropy is a scalar summary of persistence barcodes widely used to detect regime changes, yet there is no account of when a structural change in a barcode must produce a detectable change in entropy. We establish a model-agnostic theorem supplying such conditions. Treating persistence diagrams as random objects indexed by a control parameter, we identify a dispersion-condensation mechanism in the normalized persistence weights and derive an explicit lower bound on the entropy difference between the two regimes, valid with high probability at finite sample size and insensitive to the absolute scale of bar lifetimes. We also give a procedure for verifying the hypotheses on empirical barcodes. Applied to convolutional networks, the criterion shows that the circular organization of learned filters reported by Gabrielsson and Carlsson emerges through a sharp topological phase transition, and locates its onset: within a few hundred iterations on MNIST, but an order of magnitude later on CIFAR-10. The same criterion detects the Kuramoto synchronization and Vicsek order-disorder transitions.

Inspired by graph-based methodologies, we introduce a novel graph-spanning algorithm designed to identify changes in both offline and online data across low to high dimensions. This versatile approach is applicable to Euclidean and graph-structured data with unknown distributions, while maintaining control over error probabilities. Theoretically, we demonstrate that the algorithm achieves high detection power when the magnitude of the change surpasses the lower bound of the minimax separation rate, which scales on the order of $\sqrt{nd}$. Our method outperforms other techniques in terms of accuracy for both Gaussian and non-Gaussian data. Notably, it maintains strong detection power even with small observation windows, making it particularly effective for online environments where timely and precise change detection is critical.

[Corrected v2: an audit found that the score, threshold, and latency descriptions below are not what the shared codebase implements, and that the evaluation streams are assembled constructions. See the correction note on the title page and the corrected companion work, arXiv:2605.24696 (corrected v3), artifact doi:10.5281/zenodo.22673735.] We present a risk-calibrated approach to streaming intrusion detection that couples Bayesian Online Changepoint Detection (BOCPD) with decision thresholds aligned to Site Reliability Engineering (SRE) error budgets. BOCPD provides run-length posteriors that adapt to distribution shift and concept drift; we map these posteriors to alert decisions by optimizing expected operational cost under false-positive and false-negative budgets. We detail the hazard model, conjugate updates, and an O(1)-per-event implementation. A concrete SRE example shows how a 99.9% availability SLO (43.2 minutes per month error budget) yields a probability threshold near 0.91 when missed incidents are 10x more costly than false alarms. We evaluate on the full UNSW-NB15 and CIC-IDS2017 benchmarks with chronological splits, comparing against strong unsupervised baselines (ECOD, COPOD, and LOF). Metrics include PR-AUC, ROC-AUC, Brier score, calibration reliability diagrams, and detection latency measured in events. Results indicate improved precision-recall at mid to high recall and better probability calibration relative to baselines. We release implementation details, hyperparameters, and ablations for hazard sensitivity and computational footprint. Code and reproducibility materials will be made available upon publication; datasets and implementation are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

We propose a method for evaluating the robustness of widely used LLM ranking systems -- variants of a Bradley--Terry model -- to dropping a worst-case very small fraction of preference data. Our approach is computationally fast and easy to adopt. When we apply our method to matchups from popular LLM ranking platforms, including Chatbot Arena and derivatives, we find that the rankings of top-performing models can be remarkably sensitive to the removal of a small fraction of preferences; for instance, dropping just 0.003% of human preferences can change the top-ranked model on Chatbot Arena. Our robustness check identifies the specific preferences most responsible for such ranking flips, allowing for inspection of these influential preferences. We observe that the rankings derived from MT-bench preferences are notably more robust than those from Chatbot Arena, likely due to MT-bench's use of expert annotators and carefully constructed prompts. Finally, we find that neither rankings based on crowdsourced human evaluations nor those based on LLM-as-a-judge preferences are systematically more sensitive than the other.