Change-Point Detection

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Overview

Change-point detection studies when and where a time series, data stream, or evolving system shifts between regimes, helping people respond to failures, drift, or changing conditions. Offline methods segment data using dynamic programming and penalized costs, while online methods such as CUSUM, EWMA, and martingale tests trade detection speed against false alarms; Bayesian, kernel, graph-based, and neural approaches handle richer data. Work spans settings from multivariate monitoring and dynamic networks to deployed machine-learning models, with growing attention to confidence sets, attribution, and early-warning evaluation. A central challenge is maintaining reliable guarantees under dependence, adaptation, and unknown shifts without making detection too slow or too prone to alarms.

Latest papers

CardsList

83 papers12 papers in the last four weeks, up 33% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

  1. The Sample Complexity of Multiple Change Point Identification under Bandit Feedback

    May 13, 2026Maximilian Graf, Victor ThuotSample ComplexityAdaptive Sampling

    INRAE, Mistea, Institut Agro, Univ Montpellier, Montpellier, France

  2. Accurate Evaluation of Quickest Changepoint Detectors via Non-parametric Survival Analysis

    May 11, 2026Taiki Miyagawa, Akinori F. EbiharaChange-Point DetectionSequential Hypothesis Testing

    NEC Corporation, Japan

  3. Distributional Spectral Diagnostics for Localizing Grokking Transitions

    May 7, 2026Ziyue Wang, Yufeng Ying, Takafumi KanamoriChange-Point DetectionGrokking

    Institute of Science Tokyo · University of Science and Technology of China

  4. Multiscale Euclidean Network Trajectories: Second-Moment Geometry, Attribution, and Change Points

    May 6, 2026Haruka Ezoe, Ryohei HisanoSpectral Graph EmbeddingDynamic Graph Learning

    Graduate School of Information Science and Technology The University of Tokyo · The Canon Institute for Global Studies

  5. Segmenting Human-LLM Co-authored Text via Change Point Detection

    May 5, 2026Mengchu Li, Jin Zhu, Jinglai Li +1AI-Generated Text DetectionChange-Point Detection

    School of Mathematics University of Birmingham Birmingham, UK · Department of Statistics London School of Economics and Political Science London, UK

  6. Pi-Change: A Prior-Informed Multiple Change Point Detection Algorithm

    May 1, 2026Jonathon Jacobs, Shanshan ChenChange-Point Detection

    Department of Biostatistics Virginia Commonwealth University Richmond, VA, USA

  7. TransVLM: A Vision-Language Framework and Benchmark for Detecting Any Shot Transitions

    Apr 30, 2026Ce Chen, Yi Ren, Yuanming Li +5Vision-Language ModelsChange-Point Detection

    University of Melbourne · 2HeyGen Research · 3Nanyang Technological University

  8. Residual-loss Anomaly Analysis of Physics-Informed Neural Networks: An Inverse Method for Change-point Detection in Nonlinear Dynamical Systems with Regime Switching

    Apr 28, 2026Yuhe Bai, Chengli Tan, Jiaqi Li +2Dynamical SystemsRegime-Switching Dynamical Systems

    School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430074, China · School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an, 710072, China

  9. Information-Geometric First-Passage Monitoring of Distributional Stability in Stochastic Systems

    Apr 27, 2026Hikmat Karimov, Rahid Zahid AlekberliInformation GeometryDistribution Shift

    Institute of Defense Technologies and Cybersecurity„ Azerbaijan Technical University, Azerbaijan

  10. An Algorithm for On-Sensor Agnostic Detection of Changes in Human Activity for Ultra-Low-Power Applications

    Apr 24, 2026Sara Rimoldi, Arianna De Vecchi, Hazem Hesham Yousef Shalby +1Adaptive InferenceHuman Activity Recognition

    Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria (DEIB), Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy

  11. Early Detection of Latent Microstructure Regimes in Limit Order Books

    Apr 22, 2026Prakul Sunil Hiremath, Vruksha Arun HiremathQuantitative FinanceLatent Dynamics Modeling

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering Visvesvaraya Technological University, Belagavi · Department of Business Administration K.L.E. Society’s College of Business Administration

  12. In-Context Learning Under Regime Change

    Apr 18, 2026Carson Dudley, Yutong Bi, Xiaofeng Liu +1TransformerDistribution Shift Detection

    Department of Mathematics, University of Michigan · Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Michigan · Michigan Institute for AI and Data in Society, University of Michigan

  13. A Nonparametric Adaptive EWMA Control Chart for Binary Monitoring of Multiple Stream Processes

    Apr 13, 2026Faruk Muritala, Austin Brown, Dhrubajyoti Ghosh +1Change-Point Detection

    School of Data Science and Analytics, Kennesaw State University, Kennesaw, United States of America.

  14. Non-Stationarity in the Embedding Space of Time Series Foundation Models

    Apr 6, 2026Jinmyeong Choi, Brad Shook, Artur DubrawskiTime-Series Foundation ModelsNon-Stationary Time Series

    Auton Lab Robotics Institute Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA

  15. The Hiremath Early Detection (HED) Score: A Measure-Theoretic Evaluation Standard for Temporal Intelligence

    Apr 5, 2026Prakul Sunil HiremathEarly Warning DetectionAnomaly Detection

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Visvesvaraya Technological University (VTU), Belagavi, India · Aliens on Earth (AoE) Autonomous Research Group, Belagavi, India

  16. TRACE: Traceroute-based Internet Route change Analysis with Ensemble Learning

    Mar 21, 2026Raul Suzuki, Rodrigo Moreira, Pedro Henrique A. Damaso de Melo +2Change-Point Detection

    Institute of Exact and Technological Sciences – Federal University of Viçosa (UFV), Rio Paranaíba – MG – Brazil · Department of Informatics – School of Engineering, University of Minho (UMinho) – Braga – Portugal

  17. Generalized Hierarchical Bayesian Segmentation with Irregular Designs, Multi-Sequence Hierarchies, and Grouped/Latent-Group Designs

    Mar 16, 2026Omid Shams SolariChange-Point DetectionHierarchical Bayesian Modeling

    sAIm Labs

  18. Latent Dynamics-Aware OOD Monitoring for Trajectory Prediction with Provable Guarantees

    Mar 15, 2026Tongfei Guo, Lili SuOOD DetectionChange-Point Detection

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.

  19. Towards Differentiating Between Failures and Domain Shifts in Industrial Data Streams

    Mar 9, 2026Natalia Wojak-Strzelecka, Szymon Bobek, Grzegorz J. Nalepa +1Industrial Anomaly DetectionFault Detection

    1Jagiellonian Human-Centered AI Lab, Mark Kac Center for Complex Systems Research, Institute of Applied Computer Science, Faculty of Physics, Astronomy and Applied Computer Science, Jagiellonian University, ul. prof. Stanisława Łojasiewicza 11, 30-348 Krakow, Poland · Institute of Computing Science, Poznań University of Technology, 60-965 Poznań, Poland

  20. Locally Private Parametric Methods for Change-Point Detection

    Feb 14, 2026Anuj Kumar Yadav, Cemre Cadir, Yanina Y. Shkel +1Change-Point DetectionDifferential Privacy

    School of Computer and Communication Sciences, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Vaud, Switzerland.

  21. High-Dimensional Change Point Detection via Graph Spanning Ratio

    Dec 8, 2025Katerina Papagiannouli, Yang-wen Sun, Vladimir SpokoinyChange-Point Detection

    Department of Mathematics, University or Pisa · Department of Mathematics, Humboldt University of Berlin · Weierstrass Institut

  22. Monitoring the calibration of probability forecasts with an application to concept drift detection involving image classification

    Oct 29, 2025Christopher T. Franck, Anne R. Driscoll, Zoe Szajnfarber +1Concept DriftModel Calibration

  23. Diffusion-Based Hypothesis Testing and Change-Point Detection

    Jun 19, 2025Sean Moushegian, Taposh Banerjee, Vahid TarokhChange-Point DetectionStatistical Hypothesis Testing

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708. · Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213.