Clinical Risk Prediction

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Overview

Clinical risk prediction estimates the likelihood and timing of outcomes such as deterioration, complications, readmission, or disease onset to support screening and care decisions. Methods range from logistic and Cox regression and clinical scores to gradient-boosted trees, survival models, temporal neural networks, and multimodal systems combining EHR data, notes, images, and wearable signals. Current work also explores calibration, uncertainty estimates, explainability, and privacy-preserving learning across hospitals. A central challenge is ensuring that strong results reflect genuine future risk and remain reliable across populations and settings, rather than being inflated by data leakage or weakened by distribution shift.

Latest papers

CardsList

218 papers21 papers in the last four weeks, down 5% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

  1. AI Chatbot Suicide Risk Detection and Response: Human Validation Study of the Open-Source VERA-MH Safety Evaluation

    Feb 4, 2026Kate H. Bentley, Luca Belli, Adam M. Chekroud +7Language Model Safety EvaluationHuman-AI Agreement

    Spring Health · UC Berkeley · Yale University

  2. Extending ROC Analysis to Uncertainty-Aware Risk Prediction with an Interval-Based AUC (iAUC)

    Feb 4, 2026Yuqi Li, Matthew M. EngelhardUncertainty QuantificationClinical Risk Prediction

    Department of Biostatistics & Bioinformatics, Duke University

  3. Improving Forecasts of Suicide Attempts for Patients with Little Data

    Nov 22, 2025Genesis Hang, Annie Chen, Hope Neveux +2Latent Variable ModelsGaussian Processes

    Wellesley College · Harvard University

  4. Neural Stochastic Differential Equations on Compact State Spaces: Theory, Methods, and Application to Suicide Risk Modeling

    Aug 23, 2025Malinda Lu, Yue-Jane Liu, Matthew K. Nock +1Stochastic Differential EquationsLatent Dynamics Modeling

    Wellesley College · Harvard University

  5. GlaBoost: A Multimodal Structured Framework for Glaucoma Risk Stratification

    Aug 3, 2025Cheng Huang, Zeyu Han, Weizheng Xie +4Multimodal FusionClinical Risk Prediction

    Department of Computer Science, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX 75205, USA · Department of Ophthalmology, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX 75390, USA · High Performance Computing Program, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, DC 20546, USA

  6. Stroke Prediction using Clinical and Social Features in Machine Learning

    Dec 27, 2024Aidan ChadhaMultilayer PerceptronsLogistic Regression

    Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA

  7. Narrative Feature or Structured Feature? A Study of Large Language Models to Identify Cancer Patients at Risk of Heart Failure

    Mar 18, 2024Ziyi Chen, Mengyuan Zhang, Mustafa Mohammed Ahmed +4HealthcareOncology

    Department of Health Outcomes and Biomedical Informatics, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA · Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA · Division of Hematology & Oncology, Department of Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA

  8. Subtyping patients with chronic disease using longitudinal BMI patterns

    Nov 9, 2021Md Mozaharul Mottalib, Jessica C Jones-Smith, Bethany Sheridan +1Clinical Risk Prediction