Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation

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3 papers in the last four weeks, against 2 the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

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Prediction-Powered Data Fusion for Treatment Effect Estimation
Oct 8, 2026Yonghan Jung, Shu YangCausal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign · North Carolina State University
ProximalFM: Amortized Proximal Causal Inference under Hidden Confounding
Oct 6, 2026Christophe Muller, Ayub Kharel, Alex Luedtke +6Amortized Inference Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation
University of Oxford · Harvard University · University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign +5
Diverse Geometries, Frozen Weights: Robust Heterogeneous Treatment-Effect Estimation via Causal Expert Ensembles
Sep 24, 2026Ali Haghpanah Jahromi, Mohammad TaheriConditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation Causal Inference
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Shiraz, Shiraz, Iran
Feature Space Selection and Heterogeneous Effect Estimation for Blood-Brain Barrier Permeability: A Random Forest to the Generalized Random Forest Pipeline
Sep 24, 2026Tshemollo Rapolai, Seite Makgai, Mohammad ArashiConditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation Molecular Property Prediction
Department of Statistics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa · Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematical Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, P.O. Box 1159, Mashhad, 91775, Iran
Splitting the Difference: Interpretable Causal Forests for Treatment Effect Heterogeneity and Bias
Sep 15, 2026Nicolas Alexander Ihlo, Merle BehrCausal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation
Faculty of Informatics and Data Science University of Regensburg, Germany
FunnelCausalNet: Funnel-aware Joint Conversion-Revenue Uplift for Multi-tier Coupon Allocation
Aug 12, 2026Yu Zhang, Zhihan Wang, Guanlin Chen +2Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation Online Resource Allocation
AMap Alibaba Group, Beijing, China · AMap Alibaba Group · Beijing, China
Observational Policy Ranking for SMB Financial Guidance from Multi-Action Accounting Logs
Aug 10, 2026Shrutendra Harsola, Vignesh Subrahmaniam, Vikas Raturi +7Causal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation
1Foresight-AI, Intuit
Target-Weighted Neyman Allocation: Experimental Design for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects under Population Shift
Aug 6, 2026Hoang Dang, Luan Pham, Minh NguyenDistribution Shift Robustness Causal Effect Estimation
Independent Researcher · University of New South Wales, Australia · Florida Atlantic University, USA
UpliftBench: Revealing Outcome-Regime and Objective Mismatch in Uplift Evaluation
Aug 2, 2026Binshuang LiConditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation Benchmark Design
Independent Researcher USA
Uncertainty-Guided LLM Semantic Augmentation for Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimation
Jul 29, 2026Jialu Xu, Mengkun Liang, Guannan Liu +2Representation Learning Causal Representation Learning
MIIT Key Laboratory of Data and Decision Intelligence, Beihang University Beijing, China
TLRNet: Estimating Individual Treatment Effect based on Local Information and Single Learner Structure
Jul 23, 2026Ali Haghpanah Jahromi, Mohammad Taheri, Zohreh AzimifarCausal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Shiraz, Shiraz, Iran
Climate-resilient electric vehicle charging infrastructure for sustainable cities: An interpretable causal-ensemble framework for preventive maintenance and low-carbon mobility
Jul 23, 2026Cande Lian, Wentao Zeng, Jiabin Wu +2Ensemble Learning Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation
School of Management, Foshan University, Foshan, China · School of Management, Foshan University, Foshan 528000, China · School of Mathematics, Foshan University, Foshan 528000, China +5
Learning Who to Treat When Treatment is Missing
Jul 15, 2026Johnna Sundberg, Rayid Ghani, Eli Ben-Michael +1Causal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
The Spectral Structure of Latent Treatment Effects
Jul 12, 2026Hamza Virk, Bijan Mazaheri, Yihren WuCausal Effect Estimation Latent Variable Models
1Dartmouth College · 2Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard · 3Hofstra University
Machine Learning for Depression Screening and Intervention: an Original Circadian Rhythm Score-based Methodology
Jul 6, 2026Bin Wang, Shuo Lian, Yuanyuan Hou +5Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation Depression Detection
Faculty of Information Science and Engineering Ocean University of China Qingdao, China · Department of Rehabilitation Medicine The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University Qingdao, China · School of Intelligent Medicine Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine Chengdu, China +1
Significance-First Splitting: Aligning Treatment Heterogeneity Detection with Honest Estimation
Jul 4, 2026Pantelis Z. Hadjipantelis, Weng Man Chiang, Karthik NageshCausal Effect Estimation Confidence Region Estimation
TripAdvisor, UK
Denoised Conformal Alignment for Reliable Selection of Conditional Average Treatment Effect Predictions
Jul 3, 2026Xinyun Lu, Haoang Chi, Zhiheng ZhangCausal Effect Estimation Selective Prediction
Shanghai University of Finance and Economics · Shanghai Jiao Tong University · National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, China +2
From Tokens to Policy: Causal and Interpretable Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Identification
Jun 15, 2026Riccardo Cadei, Frank Otchere, Nyasha Tirivayi +3Causal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation
ISTA · UNICEF · UCLA
A Guide to Estimating Conditional Average Treatment Effects in Competing Risks Settings
Jun 8, 2026Daniel Klippert, Sarah Friedrich, Markus PaulyCausal Effect Estimation Meta-Learning
Department of Statistics, TU Dortmund University · Research Center Trustworthy Data Science and Security, University Alliance Ruhr (UA Ruhr) · Institute for Mathematics, University of Augsburg
Heterogeneous Effects of Green Finance on Urban Decarbonization: Evidence from 285 Cities in China
Jun 5, 2026Xueyang Li, Jinlei MaConditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation
1and2School of Business, Anhui University of Technology, Anhui 243002, China
Transfer learning for causal forest
Jun 5, 2026Bérénice-Alexia Jocteur, Véronique Maume-Deschamps, Pierre RibereauCausal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation
ICJ, PSPM · Universit´e Lyon 1, Centrale Lyon, INSA Lyon · Universit´e Jean Monnet, CNRS, ICJ UMR5208, 69622 Villeurbanne, France. +1
Improved Guarantees for Heterogeneous Treatment-Effect Estimation via Matrix Completion
May 28, 2026Anay Mehrotra, Phuc Tran, Van H. Vu +1Causal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation
Vin University · The University of Hong Kong · Yale University
Calibrated Inference for the Conditional Average Treatment Effect in the Few-Placebo Regime via Gaussian Processes
May 26, 2026Eichi UeharaCausal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation
AFLO
Beyond Differences: Doubly Robust Meta-Learners for Ratio-Based Treatment Effects
May 25, 2026Michael Fuchs, Dominik KreissCausal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation
Actuarial Department Allianz Versicherungs-AG Munich, Germany
CausalGuard: Conformal Inference under Graph Uncertainty
May 21, 2026Vikash Singh, Weicong Chen, Debargha Ganguly +12Causal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation
1Case Western Reserve University
Three-in-One World Model: Energy-Based Consistency, Prediction, and Counterfactual Inference for Marketing Intervention
May 8, 2026Junichiro NiimiCausal Effect Estimation World Model Learning
1Meijo University
Regime-Conditioned Evaluation in Multi-Context Bayesian Optimization
May 6, 2026Noel ThomasCausal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation
Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence Abu Dhabi, UAE
Bayesian X-Learner: Calibrated Posterior Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects under Heavy-Tailed Outcomes
Apr 30, 2026Eichi UeharaRobust Regression Causal Effect Estimation
Independent researcher
Improving RCT-Based Treatment Effect Estimation Under Covariate Mismatch via Calibrated Alignment
Mar 19, 2026Amir Asiaee, Samhita PalCausal Effect Estimation Causal Representation Learning
Department of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, TN 37203, USA
Reliable Selection of Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimators
Nov 23, 2025Jiayi Guo, Zijun GaoCausal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation
Peking University · Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California

Oct 8, 2026, stat.MLJ/K move · Enter open · S save

Prediction-Powered Data Fusion for Treatment Effect Estimation

Yonghan Jung, Shu Yang

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign · North Carolina State University

Causal Effect Estimation Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation Prediction-Powered Inference

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Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) identify treatment effects without confounding but are often small, whereas observational studies (OBS) are large but may be confounded. Many estimators combining a small RCT with a large OBS have been developed for the average treatment effect (ATE) and the conditional ATE (CATE). However, existing ATE estimators either make assumptions on the OBS or do not borrow enough power from them. The CATE has been studied less than the ATE. Existing CATE methods either assume the OBS are unconfounded, rely on a model of the confounding function, or accept bias in exchange for lower variance. We therefore propose a framework that, without special assumptions on the OBS, fuses the OBS and the RCT by preserving the unbiasedness of RCT-based estimation while borrowing power from the large OBS to boost precision. Applying this principle, we build an ATE estimator, AIPW-Fusion, with closed-form weights and confidence intervals, and two CATE learners, DR-Fusion and R-Fusion. Experiments corroborate our findings.

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