Item Difficulty Estimation

Latest papers

17 papers2 papers in the last four weeks, with none the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

Oct 1, 2026

What Makes Something Hard(er)? Explaining Question Difficulty in Natural Language

Difficulty is one of the most fundamental properties of a question: it determines whether the question can meaningfully discriminate between models of differing ability. Although a variety of methods can now estimate or predict difficulty automatically, they yield only a single descriptive number, with no account of the underlying factors that make a question difficult in the first place. In this work, we propose a data-driven approach that automatically generates and validates natural-language hypotheses explaining what makes one question harder than another. We first estimate each item's difficulty from the responses of a large pool of LLMs using Item Response Theory. We then sample contrasting sets of easy and hard questions and prompt an LLM to propose candidate explanations of the difference, which are subsequently validated and selected on held-out questions. Experimental results across three datasets spanning mathematical, logical, and commonsense reasoning show that our method produces interpretable and predictive hypotheses. On their own, they predict the difficulty of unseen questions competitively with, or better than, advanced black-box difficulty regressors; used as additional features, they further improve those regressors, implying that they discover difficulty signals that existing models fail to capture. Moreover, we demonstrate that editing questions according to a hypothesis can shift their measured difficulty in the expected direction, indicating that the discovered hypotheses are causally valid difficulty factors rather than post-hoc descriptions. Our approach thus turns a purely descriptive difficulty score into actionable statements.
Sep 28, 2026

PSM: Dataset Distillation Based on Precise Statistical Matching by Difficulty

Dataset distillation (DD) condenses a large original dataset into a small distilled dataset with high training utility. Decoupled statistical matching methods substantially reduce distillation time and memory overhead while achieving strong performance. However, they typically supervise all distilled samples using running statistics estimated from the entire original dataset. These statistics mainly capture the average feature distribution while overlooking differences in sample difficulty, limiting their ability to characterize the difficulty structure of the original data. To address this issue, we propose Precise Statistical Matching (PSM) by difficulty. After pretraining, PSM uses the Global Precision Score (GPS) to estimate image difficulty, ranks the samples within each class, and partitions each class into IPC (images per class) difficulty groups. During distillation, Statistics Updated Again (SUA) updates the teacher's batch normalization (BN) running statistics through forward passes on original samples from each group, providing difficulty-specific supervision for the corresponding distilled batch. Meanwhile, Initial Sample Screening (ISS) initializes distilled samples using original images from the corresponding difficulty group, providing an effective starting point for precise matching. Experiments across multiple datasets and model architectures demonstrate that PSM broadens the difficulty range of distilled samples and improves downstream performance in most evaluated settings. Code will be released.
Aug 18, 2026

What Makes Software Issue Resolution Tasks Difficult for Agents?

Background. Advances in agentic systems are simultaneously, and rapidly, saturating benchmarks. Despite this often discussed phenomena, benchmark scores remain difficult to interpret due to the lack of control and characterization of task difficulty. More specifically, we currently have little understanding of what makes one task harder than another, and to what extent task difficulty is predictable from static task properties. Aims. We propose a measurement framework to investigate and systematically quantify what structural properties of software tasks correspond to agent success rates for issue resolution tasks. Method. We conducted a large scale empirical study on CoderForge-Preview, the largest open dataset of coding agent trajectories to date, by extracting features across task patch, repository and prompt. We evaluated the predictive power of each feature against task outcomes using ensemble methods, SHAP attribution, and effect size analysis. Results We found that task difficulty is substantially predictable from static features (AU C = 0.863) and is largely driven by patch fragmentation and repository scale. Prompt linguistic features become visible among top contributors for tasks in the mid-band, revealing a layered structure of difficulty. Conclusion. The difficulty of an issue resolution task is encoded in its structure. This enables static, pre-hoc difficulty estimation and lays the groundwork for difficulty-controlled benchmark construction for evaluation of agents.
Aug 6, 2026

Predicting Task Difficulty Without Rollouts

A fundamental challenge in evaluating and training autonomous agents is measuring the intrinsic difficulty of the tasks they attempt. Estimating this quantity can be useful for environment designers creating synthetic data or benchmarks, as well as for constructing training curricula, thereby offering a way to reduce compute costs. Such an estimation becomes increasingly important as agents (particularly LLM-based) move into longer-horizon domains, where empirical trial-and-error becomes a severe computational bottleneck. However existing work is largely confined to static tasks and relies on evaluation metrics that, as we show, can give an incomplete picture of predictive performance. In this paper we study ex ante difficulty prediction across 17 agentic benchmarks spanning coding, mathematics, machine learning, web navigation, function calling, and other domains. We find that AUC can mask poor difficulty estimates, identify token-level entropy as a useful predictive signal, and demonstrate how residuals between expected and observed difficulty can expose environment flaws such as contamination and infeasibility.
Aug 5, 2026

Representing Visual Evidence for Item Difficulty Prediction: Visual Textualization and Image-Native Modeling

Predicting item difficulty from content can provide an initial estimate for newly developed questions before sufficient student responses are available. Existing approaches typically represent the question stem and answer choices as text. When mathematics items contain visual components, a common pipeline first textualizes that evidence and then applies a text predictor. We ask: how should visual evidence be represented for item difficulty prediction? We compare question text alone, visual textualization, which expresses visual evidence in language, and image-native modeling, which retains the original image. Using Eedi items with difficulty calibrated from student responses, we train large language models (LLMs) and vision-language models (VLMs) directly for difficulty regression. Both visual interfaces achieve the lowest point estimates, although the leading systems cannot be reliably ordered. Open-VLM textualization yields lower RMSE point estimates for all evaluated LLMs, while broader adaptation does so for all image-native VLMs. Test-time interventions show dependence on the paired full-item image, but do not isolate the additional visual component. The two visual interfaces also make partially complementary item-level errors and differ substantially in computational workflow. Thus, textualization should not be treated as the only practical interface: image-native modeling is a competitive alternative whose effectiveness depends on how the VLM is adapted.
Jul 21, 2026

Disentangling Curriculum Learning in NLP: Towards a Unifying Taxonomy

Despite more than a decade of curriculum learning (CL) research in NLP, the field lacks a principled account of which difficulty function or scheduler to use for a given problem. To understand what has hindered progress towards this account, we propose a fine-grained taxonomy separating difficulty evaluation from training scheduling to enable systematic analysis of CL strategies. For difficulty evaluation, we distinguish attribution source and task dependence, revealing difficulty as a perspectival concept encoding different assumptions about what makes an instance hard to learn. For scheduling, we provide the first formalisation of CL schedulers in terms of expected training contribution, enabling comparison across implementations by introducing retention regimes and monotonicity properties. Applied in a dedicated analysis of CL works in NLP, our taxonomy reveals a systematic incomparability problem: prior works conflate distinct notions of difficulty and scheduling, often pursuing different objectives under the same CL label -- hindering comparison and the accumulation of a coherent evidence base. Beyond diagnosis, the taxonomy supports the design, analysis, and comparison of CL strategies, and motivates evaluation practices that disentangle the sources of observed improvement.
Jun 26, 2026

Cognitive Episodes in LLM Reasoning Traces Enable Interpretable Human Item Difficulty Prediction

Predicting human item difficulty is central to educational assessment, where reliable estimates support fairness and effective test construction. Existing methods often depend on costly human calibration or item-level textual representations, providing limited evidence about the cognitive processes that make items difficult. We argue that difficulty should be viewed not only as a property of item text, but also as an observable consequence of the problem-solving burden an item induces. Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) offer scalable process evidence through reasoning traces, but such evidence must be structured to support interpretable modeling. To this end, we introduce Epi2Diff (Episode to Difficulty), a framework that maps LRM reasoning traces into cognitively grounded episode sequences. These episodes group trace segments into functional problem-solving states, enabling difficulty to be modeled through reasoning scale, effort allocation, and state transitions. Epi2Diff extracts compact episode-dynamic features and combines them with semantic item representations for human difficulty prediction. Experiments on four real-world human difficulty datasets show that Epi2Diff consistently outperforms strong baselines, including fine-tuned small language models, LLM in-context learning, and supervised LLM adaptation. On SAT-derived classification benchmarks, Epi2Diff achieves an 8.1% average relative gain over supervised LLM fine-tuning baselines. Further analyses show that harder items induce more effortful, iterative, and implementation-centered episode dynamics, rather than merely longer responses. These results demonstrate that cognitive episodes in LRM reasoning traces provide a predictive and interpretable process representation for human item difficulty, offering a new lens for educational measurement with reasoning models.
Jun 17, 2026

Hard or Just Unreached? Diagnosing the Sampling Blind Spot in Math-Reasoning Difficulty Estimation

Math and science reasoning benchmarks rely on pass@k, the fraction of sampled chains that reach gold, as the canonical per-example difficulty signal. The same signal drives RL with verifiable rewards, math data curation, synthetic curricula, and verifier training. We show this proxy has a persistent blind spot on its hardest stratum: on the eight free-form math cells we test (GSM8K and MATH across four open-weight models), 10.3-22.9% of the examples that no sampling seed solves in six tries are instead solved at matched compute by a six-chain deterministic regime. These are greedy decoding plus five cheap residual-stream perturbations applied via activation grafting, while greedy alone solves at most 6% on these math cells. Recovery scales with the additional budget, across perturbations whose mechanistic distinctness we verify across all twelve cells (cross-kind fix-set Jaccard <= 0.47 in every setup). Activation grafting is used as an intervention on internal representations, not a decoding method; we use it purely as a diagnostic and diversification tool, and our recovered items show that the pass@k= 0 % stratum is structurally identifiable in the residual stream rather than that the unmodified model reaches them under ordinary inference.
Jun 8, 2026

Structure-Aware Modeling of Multiple-Choice Questions Improves Automatic Difficulty Estimation

Automatic Question Difficulty Estimation (AQDE) holds growing promise for educational assessment because it has the potential to yield difficulty estimates that are competitive with expert judgment, while helping reduce the time and financial burden associated with pilot administrations and scaling to digital testing contexts. Prior AQDE studies report mixed evidence on whether adding distractors as additional text to the question stem and the correct key consistently improves difficulty prediction. We hypothesize that the effectiveness of distractor information depends on its structural representation, and that explicitly modeling distractors as separate components improves difficulty estimation over baselines that omit this information. To address this, we designed controlled architectures that model MCQ components as distinct inputs to isolate the contribution of distractor content and order. Specifically, we represented distractors by encoding each distractor as its own text input and aggregating their representations either with order-aware concatenation (with positional tags) or with an order-invariant summation. We evaluated these architectures using two Chilean datasets (Natural and Social Sciences, 2016-2020; 4,114 multiple-choice questions). Compared to a simpler model that only used the question stem and the key, our best distractor-aware architecture achieved higher predictive performance, reaching R^2 = 0.83 for Natural Sciences and R^2 = 0.71 for Social Sciences items. An order-invariant variant achieved nearly the same accuracy with approximately half as many parameters, offering a favorable accuracy-efficiency trade-off. These results show that structural information (especially distractor content) drives gains in predictive accuracy, supporting the development of efficient, structure-aware models that are computationally viable for large-scale educational applications.
May 18, 2026

Estimating Item Difficulty with Large Language Models as Experts

Accurate estimates of item difficulty are essential for valid assessment and effective adaptive learning. However, for newly created tasks, response data are typically unavailable. Pretesting and expert judgement can be costly and slow, while machine learning methods often require large labelled training datasets. Recent work suggests that large language models (LLMs) may help. However, there is limited evidence on the elicitation procedures and prompt configurations used to emulate experts for difficulty estimation. This study addresses this gap by evaluating three off-the-shelf LLMs as difficulty raters for newly created items without access to response data. Using an item bank from an online learning system, the study examined 6 domains of primary-school mathematics, with empirical difficulty estimates treated as empirical reference. The study used a full factorial design crossing three factors: judgement format (absolute vs pairwise), decision type (hard decisions vs token-probability-based estimates), and prompting strategy (zero-shot vs few-shot). LLM-derived difficulty estimates were compared with empirical difficulties using Spearman rank correlations. Across domains, LLM-based estimates exhibited moderate to strong positive correlations with empirical item difficulties. For simpler arithmetic tasks, some configurations approached the upper end of the accuracy range reported for human experts in previous research. Pairwise comparison consistently outperformed absolute judgement in the absence of additional refinements. However, when token-level probabilities were incorporated and examples of items with known empirical difficulty were provided, the absolute judgement configuration likewise demonstrated moderate-to-high alignment. The study positions LLMs as a promising tool for initial item calibration and offers insights into effective workflow configuration.
May 12, 2026

Question Difficulty Estimation for Large Language Models via Answer Plausibility Scoring

Estimating question difficulty is a critical component in evaluating and improving large language models (LLMs) for question answering (QA). Existing approaches often rely on readability formulas, retrieval-based signals, or popularity statistics, which may not fully capture the reasoning challenges posed to modern LLMs. In this paper, we introduce Q-DAPS (Question Difficulty based on Answer Plausibility Scores) method, a novel approach that estimates question difficulty by computing the entropy of plausibility scores over candidate answers. We systematically evaluate Q-DAPS across four prominent QA datasets-TriviaQA, NQ, MuSiQue, and QASC-demonstrating that it consistently outperforms baselines. Moreover, Q-DAPS shows strong robustness across hyperparameter variations and question types. Extensive ablation studies further show that Q-DAPS remains robust across different plausibility estimation paradigms, model sizes, and realistic settings. Human evaluations further confirm strong alignment between Q-DAPS's difficulty estimates and human judgments of question difficulty. Overall, Q-DAPS provides an interpretable, scalable, and bias-resilient approach to question difficulty estimation in modern QA systems.
Apr 13, 2026

MCQ Difficulty Prediction via Modeling Learner Heterogeneity Using Data-Driven Cognitive Profiling

Predicting the difficulty of multiple-choice questions (MCQs) is important for effective assessment, yet current methods typically assume a unimodal student ability distribution, overlooking the heterogeneous nature of student misconceptions. We propose a persona-driven framework that replaces theoretical ability sampling with data-driven cognitive profiling. Using student interactions from the EEDI dataset, we identify behavioral personas via latent class analysis (LCA), then condition a large language model (LLM) to simulate response distributions for each persona. These signals are aggregated with topic context and fed into a Ridge Regression model to predict the item response theory (IRT) difficulty parameter. With five-fold cross-validation, our method improves over a recent baseline (MSE: 0.367 to 0.274; R2: 0.525 to 0.686). The discovered personas are interpretable and offer insights into why items are difficult, with potential applications to diagnostic assessment design.
Apr 12, 2026

Generating Multiple-Choice Knowledge Questions with Interpretable Difficulty Estimation using Knowledge Graphs and Large Language Models

Generating multiple-choice questions (MCQs) with difficulty estimation remains challenging in automated MCQ-generation systems used in adaptive, AI-assisted education. This study proposes a novel methodology for generating MCQs with difficulty estimation from the input documents by utilizing knowledge graphs (KGs) and large language models (LLMs). Our approach uses an LLM to construct a KG from input documents, from which MCQs are then systematically generated. Each MCQ is generated by selecting a node from the KG as the key, sampling a related triple or quintuple -- optionally augmented with an extra triple -- and prompting an LLM to generate a corresponding stem from these graph components. Distractors are then selected from the KG. For each MCQ, nine difficulty signals are computed and combined into a unified difficulty score using a data-driven approach. Experimental results demonstrate that our method generates high-quality MCQs whose difficulty estimation is interpretable and aligns with human perceptions. Our approach improves automated MCQ generation by integrating structured knowledge representations with LLMs and a data-driven difficulty estimation model.
Mar 28, 2026

RoMathExam: A Longitudinal Dataset of Romanian Math Exams (1895-2025) with a Seven-Decade Core (1957-2025)

AI in Education research increasingly relies on authentic, curriculum-grounded assessment data, yet large, well-structured exam corpora remain scarce for many languages and educational systems. We introduce RoMathExam, a longitudinal dataset of Romanian high-school mathematics exams spanning 1895-2025, with a robust standardized core for 1957-2025. The dataset contains 10,592 mathematics problems organized into 600+ complete exam sets across multiple tracks (M1-M4), covering both official national examination sessions and ministry-published training variants. Beyond high-fidelity digitization and a unified JSON schema with traceable provenance, RoMathExam is enriched with curriculum-aligned topic tags and dense text embeddings, enabling variant detection, deduplication, and similarity-based retrieval. To overcome the lack of historical psychometric data, we propose and validate a solution complexity metric as a scalable intrinsic proxy for difficulty. Our evaluation across three frontier reasoning models (GPT-5-mini, DeepSeek-R1, and Qwen3-235B-Thinking) reveals high cross-model synchronization (r > 0.72), confirming the metric's ability to isolate intrinsic mathematical depth from stochastic generation noise. We demonstrate the dataset's utility through a longitudinal analysis that quantifies a "regime shift" from volatile historical formats to a standardized, algebra-dominant modern curriculum. RoMathExam provides a foundation for reproducible research in difficulty modeling, curriculum analytics, and LLM evaluation in low-resource linguistic contexts.
Mar 26, 2026

4OPS: Structural Difficulty Modeling in Integer Arithmetic Puzzles

Arithmetic puzzle games provide a controlled setting for studying difficulty in mathematical reasoning tasks, a core challenge in adaptive learning systems. We investigate the structural determinants of difficulty in a class of integer arithmetic puzzles inspired by number games. We formalize the problem and develop an exact dynamic-programming solver that enumerates reachable targets, extracts minimal-operation witnesses, and enables large-scale labeling. Using this solver, we construct a dataset of over 3.4 million instances and define difficulty via the minimum number of operations required to reach a target. We analyze the relationship between difficulty and solver-derived features. While baseline machine learning models based on bag- and target-level statistics can partially predict solvability, they fail to reliably distinguish easy instances. In contrast, we show that difficulty is fully determined by a small set of interpretable structural attributes derived from exact witnesses. In particular, the number of input values used in a minimal construction serves as a minimal sufficient statistic for difficulty under this labeling. These results provide a transparent, computationally grounded account of puzzle difficulty that bridges symbolic reasoning and data-driven modeling. The framework supports explainable difficulty estimation and principled task sequencing, with direct implications for adaptive arithmetic learning and intelligent practice systems.
Mar 14, 2026

Level Up: Defining and Exploiting Transitional Problems for Curriculum Learning

Curriculum learning--ordering training examples in a sequence to aid machine learning--takes inspiration from human learning, but has not gained widespread acceptance. Static strategies for scoring item difficulty rely on indirect proxy scores of varying quality and produce curricula that are not specific to the learner at hand. Dynamic approaches base difficulty estimates on gradient information, requiring considerable extra computation during training. We introduce a novel method for measuring the difficulty of individual problem instances that is calibrated to a series of models of increasing competence, and identify transitional problems that are consistently easier as model ability increases. Applying this method to diverse model series constructed from sets of models that are readily available on many tasks, we find that training on a curriculum that levels up from easier to harder transitional problems most efficiently improves a model to the next tier of competence. These problems induce a natural progression from easier to harder items, which outperforms other training strategies. By measuring difficulty directly relative to model competence, our method yields interpretable problems, learner-specific curricula, and a principled basis for step-by-step improvement.
Mar 4, 2026

Using Vision + Language Models to Predict Item Difficulty

This project investigates the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) to determine the difficulty of data visualization literacy test items. We explore whether features derived from item text (question and answer options), the visualization image, or a combination of both can predict item difficulty (proportion of correct responses) for U.S. adults. We use GPT-4.1-nano to analyze items and generate predictions based on these distinct feature sets. The multimodal approach, using both visual and text features, yields the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) (0.224), outperforming the unimodal vision-only (0.282) and text-only (0.338) approaches. The best-performing multimodal model was applied to a held-out test set for external evaluation and achieved a mean squared error of 0.10805, demonstrating the potential of LLMs for psychometric analysis and automated item development.