LLM Evaluation
LLM: Large Language Model
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Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong performance across a wide range of tasks, but ensuring their reliability in highly technical domains remains a significant challenge. In nuclear engineering, problem solving often requires not only factual knowledge but also quantitative reasoning and conceptual understanding. To address the need for systematic evaluation in this domain, we introduce NuclearQAv2, a benchmark for assessing LLMs on nuclear engineering knowledge. The benchmark comprises approximately 1,240 question-answer pairs spanning three categories: boolean, numeric, and verbal. NuclearQAv2 is constructed using a hybrid pipeline that combines expert-authored questions, existing datasets, and LLM-assisted generation from domain-specific technical corpora. By leveraging structured prompting for both automated question generation and response evaluation, the proposed framework enables scalable benchmark construction and evaluation. We evaluate a diverse set of LLMs using NuclearQAv2 and observe substantial performance differences across task types. While the models generally perform well on factual questions, quantitative reasoning and conceptual understanding remain considerably more challenging. These results highlight the importance of multi-faceted evaluation frameworks and establish NuclearQAv2 as a scalable benchmark for assessing LLM capabilities in technical domains.
The Capability Frontier: Benchmarks Miss 82% of Model Performance
Existing benchmarks typically report accuracy for a single model on a single run. This systematically understates real-world LLM capabilities, particularly under heterogeneous data distributions: (i) different models get different questions correct according to their specializations, and (ii) given a budget, multiple generations can be sampled and selectively retained. To quantify this gap, we introduce the Capability Frontier: a Pareto frontier over a set of models that characterizes the best achievable performance at each cost level under optimal selection across models and generations (i.e., via an oracle). Our construction corrects for two opposing biases: underestimation from single-model evaluation and overestimation from taking maxima over noisy samples. We study 21 LLMs across 16 widely used benchmarks spanning coding, reasoning, medicine, factuality, instruction following, and agentic tasks, comparing Capability Frontier performance at matched cost to each benchmark's top-performing model. Correcting for single-model evaluation yields a 54% error rate reduction; additionally correcting for single runs yields an 82% improvement, with SOTA accuracy matched at 85% cost reduction. Complementing these empirical results, we use controlled probabilistic simulations to show that higher query topic entropy produces a near-monotonic increase in the performance gap between oracle routing and the best single model. Our findings suggest collective LLM capabilities are substantially underestimated, with implications for evaluation and deployment in data-heterogeneous, multi-domain settings.
Towards Evaluation of Implicit Software World Models in Coding LLMs
Software engineering, whether performed by humans or by AI agents, requires reasoning about how software behaves. We call the internal model that supports such reasoning the software world model, and view current code-execution benchmarks as covering one well-studied slice of it -- control flow. In this paper, we take a step toward a broader evaluation by shifting the observable axis to execution resources: alongside test outcome and exception class, we predict peak memory, wall-clock time, and ranked profiler outputs at method and line granularity. We use SWE-bench Verified as the source of data to hold the test close to real-world software engineering tasks. All tested models, frontier ones included, show modest performance and brittle behaviour, suggesting a notable lack of understanding of how software is executed, as opposed to how its source code is written.
Empirical Software Engineering TerraProbe: A Layered-Oracle Framework for Detecting Deceptive Fixes in LLM-Assisted Terraform
Security misconfigurations in Terraform Infrastructure-as-Code are a growing risk in cloud deployments, and large language models are increasingly used as automated repair agents. Existing evaluations often treat a repair as successful when the targeted static-analysis finding disappears, without checking planning validity, behavioral change, or security intent. This paper presents TerraProbe, a five-layer oracle framework for evaluating LLM-assisted Terraform security repair. We apply TerraProbe to 288 first-pass repairs generated by gemini-2.5-flash-lite, GPT-4o, and Claude 3.5 Sonnet across 68 real-world TerraDS modules and 28 controlled injected-defect modules. The results show that targeted Checkov removal overstates repair success. Although targeted removal reaches 83.3 percent for the primary model, full-scanner cleanliness drops to 10.4 percent, Terraform planning succeeds for 39.6 percent, and plan comparison is reachable for 38.5 percent. Human adjudication further shows that 71.4 percent of plan-compared real-world repairs are deceptive fixes that pass automated checks while leaving the underlying vulnerability in place. This pattern is statistically indistinguishable across the three models, with deceptive-fix rates from 57.1 percent to 71.4 percent and pairwise Fisher exact p-values above 0.10. The paper introduces a four-dimensional taxonomy of deceptive fixes, validated with Cohen kappa of 0.78 and Krippendorff alpha of 0.76. IAM permission analysis confirms that wildcard Resource grants persist in all nine CKV2 AWS 11 deceptive-fix cases. TerraProbe contributes an evaluation methodology, a replication package, and the Multi-Layer Oracle Evaluation framework for distinguishing intent-aligned security repairs from scanner-passing false successes.
Can Large Language Models Reliably Code Qualitative Humanitarian Data? A Benchmark Study Against Human Expert Adjudication
Data from affected populations are crucial for informing humanitarian response, but their value depends on timely and consistent interpretation of nuanced accounts of need. Humanitarian organizations often lack the staff, time, and specialist expertise required to analyze this information at scale. Large language models (LLMs) may expand this capacity, but their reliability for coding qualitative humanitarian data has not been directly established. This benchmark study compares 46 LLMs to a human Gold Standard using 150 high-fidelity synthetic humanitarian transcripts. Evaluation combined inter-rater reliability testing with Krippendorff's alpha, discrepancy analysis distinguishing correct, near-correct, and incorrect codes, and qualitative assessment across humanitarian-specific criteria including discrimination, complex needs hierarchies, and non-standard communication styles. The authors find that multiple LLMs can perform deductive coding at reliability levels comparable to experienced human coders, especially when structured prompts and reasoning-enabled configurations are used. At the same time, aggregate reliability metrics alone are insufficient for deployment decisions. Models varied in recognizing needs expressed indirectly, needs outside predefined categories, and protection-relevant concerns such as physical safety and discrimination. These findings suggest that LLMs can materially expand humanitarian analytical capacity, but not as substitutes for human judgment. Appropriate use requires structured codebooks, reasoning-enabled models, attention to theme-specific performance, and tiered oversight focused on categories where miscoding would have the greatest programmatic consequences. For sensitive humanitarian data, open-weights models deployed on self-hosted infrastructure may offer a viable path for combining analytical scalability with stronger data governance.
An Empirical Study of LLM-Generated Specifications for VeriFast
Static verification tools can assure industrial scale software, but require significant human labor to write specifications. This is particularly true of static verifiers based on separation logic (SL verifiers), which excel at verifying heapmanipulating programs, but require many complex auxiliary specifications to reason about heap structure. Recent work applies large language models (LLMs) to generate code, tests, and proofs, including specifications for verifiers, but mostly targeting non-SL verifiers. To address this gap, this paper thoroughly evaluates how well LLMs perform when prompted to generate specifications for verifying 303 C functions with the SL verifier VeriFast. We explored eight prompting approaches, ten LLMs, and three input types in two stages. Quantitative and qualitative analyses are used to assess the LLM-generated code and specifications for functional behavior, verifiability and errors. The results show that LLMs preserve functional behavior in source code and specifications (both over 91%), but achieve modest verification success (31.4%). Using Gemini 2.5 Pro and providing formal contracts lead to higher success rates in our setting. Moreover, most errors (94%) come from LLMs' mistakes in the domainspecific knowledge of SL verifiers such as VeriFast. These findings provide guidance for optimizing LLM-generated specifications for SL verifiers.
DualEval: Joint Model-Item Calibration for Unified LLM Evaluation
Current LLM evaluation relies on two complementary but often disconnected signals: static benchmarks with objective correctness labels and arena-style preference data that better reflect open-ended user interactions. We introduce DualEval, a latent model-item calibration framework that represents models and evaluation items in a shared space, jointly estimating model ability together with item difficulty and sharpness. We apply DualEval across four domains: coding, math, miscellaneous domain-knowledge tasks, and generic everyday user queries. Our evaluation uses 18 frontier LLMs, static benchmark labels, and reward-model scores validated against held-out human preferences for open-ended model responses. Empirically, our framework produces reliable and balanced model rankings, and its learned item-level profiles support downstream applications such as benchmark compression for sample-efficient evaluation and anomaly detection for contamination or outlier analysis. Overall, DualEval unifies static and arena-style evaluation through joint model-item calibration, producing model rankings and item-level diagnostics that support more sample-efficient, interpretable, and auditable evaluation pipelines.
Estimating Uncertainty in Classifier Performance with Applications to Large Language Models and Nested Data
Researchers increasingly use text classification--supervised models or large language models--to measure constructs from natural language, providing metrics such as recall and precision as evidence of their validity. Yet, though these metrics are point estimates subject to sampling variation, measures of uncertainty are inconsistently reported alongside them. Further, when they are reported, they are often estimated with methods that are not appropriate when relevant labelled datasets are small or performance is high. To increase and improve confidence interval reporting in the field, this paper evaluates confidence interval methods for performance metrics under conditions typical of social science text classification: small to moderate sample sizes, infrequent constructs, and texts nested within individuals. Across simulations, default methods such as the Wald interval and the basic percentile bootstrap are the least accurate, with coverage sometimes far below the nominal 95% level. Accuracy is improved with the use of Agresti-Coull, Wilson, Clopper-Pearson, and a novel pseudo-count regularized bootstrap (which is particularly relevant to the calculation of F1). When texts are nested within individuals, we demonstrate that adjustment for both effective N and the appropriate degrees of freedom is necessary for producing accurate analytic intervals. Among bootstrap intervals, the hierarchical bootstrap is more accurate than the cluster bootstrap when individuals produce a moderate number of texts but overly conservative when individuals produce only a few. By providing guidance to the field on appropriate interval estimation, we aim to improve the transparency of machine learning applications, and to encourage greater attention to the validation sample size at the design stage.
InvestPhilBench: A Multi-Layer Benchmark for Evaluating Large Language Model Procedural Reasoning in Expert Investment Philosophy
Large language models are increasingly deployed as investment research assistants, yet no benchmark tests whether they can accurately reconstruct and apply the specific procedural decision frameworks of expert investors. We introduce InvestPhilBench, a multi-layer benchmark spanning eight cognitive tiers, from principle identification (L1) to novel framework extrapolation (L8). The v0.6 release comprises 118 primary-source-verified principle cards, 25 decision-framework cards with explicit topology metadata, and 243 QA questions (197 dev / 46 held-out test). For reproducible scoring at scale we introduce the Benchmark Automated Scoring Pipeline (BASP), five algorithmic metrics, the Failure Mode Detection Protocol (FMDP) covering six failure modes, and Gate Reconstruction Accuracy (GRA), a per-gate metric for questions with gold reasoning programs. This release is primarily a benchmark-and-methodology contribution: its empirical study -- a four-model sanity wave on the 188-question development split (closed-book) -- is deliberately preliminary and stress-tests the metric design rather than ranking models. The wave shows a sharp provider-tier split (BASP 0.906 vs. 0.438), though these mixed-judge numbers are confounded upper bounds. The central methodological finding survives the caveat: the BASP composite saturates at the frontier (Claude L4 = 0.932) while GRA still exposes a procedural deficit (frontier L4 GRA ~0.77, L7 GRA 0.57-0.62) -- composite scoring rewards fluent prose and hides the procedural gap. On a 100-item expert-annotated gold set, the automated BASP composite tracks the human reference at Pearson r = 0.72 (MAE = 0.10). v0.6 also implements a unified judge and true model-in-the-loop retrieval/oracle conditions; the de-confounded multi-model leaderboard and full three-condition run are v1.0 deliverables.
Manipulation Is Task-Dependent: A Multi-Axis, Multi-Environment Evaluation of Frontier LLMs
We evaluate manipulative behavior in six frontier language models across six environments, ranging from negotiation tasks to agentic workflows, resulting in 13{,}590 individual scenarios. Manipulation rates are measured across three axes: framing (mandate honesty or permit manipulation), incentive structure (from no incentives to substantial ones), and task difficulty. Existing benchmarks typically vary a single axis within a single environment, an approach our results show is insufficient. We rank models by manipulation rate and find Spearman rank correlations across environments average , indicating manipulative tendencies in one task do not necessarily predict those in another. Additionally, we find the axis that drives manipulation varies across different environments. In environments where models are incentivized to misrepresent future actions, instructional framing and structurally binding incentives are the primary drivers; in environments where models are incentivized to misrepresent a ground truth, task difficulty dominates. This split was identified in five environments and validated against a sixth held-out environment. Together, these findings illustrate the importance of rigorous multi-dimensional evaluations when measuring manipulative propensities.
Recall Before Rerank: Benchmarking Deep Learning Models for Large-Scale Code-to-Code Retrieval
Semantic code search and clone detection are essential for software development, maintenance, and reuse. This paper evaluates the effectiveness, efficiency, and scalability of contemporary deep learning models for first-stage recall in large-scale code-to-code search engines. Benchmarking across multiple programming languages and datasets reveals critical limits in the precision and scalability of these models on Terabyte-scale source-code collections. We present LLM-based code normalisation and query-rewriting schemes that yield significant gains in precision for lower-performing models. Our results question the sustainability of resource-constrained deployment and the assumed robustness of current code-specialised LLMs across datasets. We conclude with actionable insights for building scalable, efficient code-retrieval systems.
Necessary but Not Sufficient: Temperature Control and Reproducibility in LLM-as-Judge Safety Evaluations
LLM-as-judge ("grader") components are now standard in evaluation harnesses, including safety evaluations where a pass/fail verdict may gate downstream deployment decisions. A widespread assumption is that setting the grader's sampling temperature to 0 makes grading deterministic. We test this assumption against a real safety-evaluation codebase (Japan AISI's open-source aisev) and show it fails on two levels. First, the harness invokes its grader without setting temperature or seed; the underlying provider silently applies its default of 1.0, so items near the decision boundary flip pass/fail across identical runs (per-item disagreement up to ~50% over 20 runs). Second, pinning temperature=0 reduces but does not eliminate flips: across 690 API calls spanning two providers, three model tiers, and five sampling configurations, 1-2 of 7 borderline items remain non-reproducible even under forced greedy decoding (top_k=1). Claude Opus 4.7/4.8 has since deprecated temperature entirely, rendering the primary mitigation inapplicable to newer model generations. These findings expose a structural gap: evaluation harnesses that report single-run verdicts without variance or grader-disagreement metrics can present noise as a safety property. We release a reproduction harness (690 calls, 7 conditions) and recommend that harnesses treat grader disagreement as a first-class health metric alongside the scores themselves.
Evaluating LLMs on Real-World Software Performance Optimization
Software performance optimization is a notoriously complex and manual task. Despite the growing use of Large Language Models (LLMs) for code refinement, we still lack benchmarks that capture how optimization actually happens in real-world codebases. Existing frameworks often oversimplify the problem by focusing on isolated functions or a single performance metric, missing the critical trade-offs between execution time and memory footprint, the inherent noise of the measurement environment, and the variability introduced by different input data and execution conditions. We address this by introducing SWE-Pro, a repository-level benchmark derived from 102 expert-written optimizations from open-source projects. Unlike previous benchmarks, SWE-Pro pairs each task with parameterized tests to evaluate runtime, peak memory, and Time-Weighted Memory Usage (TWMU) across varying input data and execution conditions under noise-aware measurement conditions. Our evaluation shows that current LLMs struggle significantly: runtime gains are negligible, and memory optimizations are nearly non-existent. This stands in sharp contrast to expert implementations, which achieve an aggregate speedup of 15.5x and peak memory reduction of 171.3x over benchmark tasks. Expert-written improvements are observed in 91.2% of tasks for runtime and 65.7% for peak memory. Our findings expose a substantial gap between current LLM capabilities and the demands of expert-level engineering.
How Reliable Is Your Jailbreak Judge? Calibration and Adversarial Robustness of Automated ASR Scoring
Almost every paper on LLM jailbreaks and prompt injection reports an attack-success rate (ASR), and that number is assigned not by people but by an automated judge: either a safety classifier trained for the task, or a general chat model prompted to grade. The judge is rarely checked. We check it. Using 596 human-labeled completions from the HarmBench classifier validation set, we compare the two judge families against human majority votes and then attack them. The two families fail in opposite ways. The dedicated classifier over-flags (precision 0.835, recall 0.974); three different LLM-as-judges keep high precision (0.81 to 0.94) but show erratic recall (0.06 to 0.65), so the same responses produce very different ASR depending on which judge scores them. The two families also differ sharply in robustness. Wrappers that leave the harmful text untouched and only add benign framing flip every LLM-judge between 57% and 100% of the time, and a single prepended refusal sentence accounts for much of this (39% to 88%). The dedicated classifier resists these surface attacks (at most 6.7%), but a white-box GCG attack on its open weights flips 70% of confident true positives (21 of 30; 95% CI 54 to 86%) even at a small optimization budget. A two-annotator audit confirms the attacks leave the harm intact: every one of 80 sampled flips still contained the harmful content. Because a large and growing share of reported ASR comes from LLM-judges, many such numbers are unreliable both on average and under deliberate pressure. We recommend that papers report judge precision and recall on a human-labeled slice, report ASR corrected for judge precision, and include an adversarial check of the judge. Our code is released.
A Red Teaming Framework for Large Language Models: A Case Study on Faithfulness Evaluation
Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across natural language processing tasks, yet their deployment in high-stakes applications raises critical concerns regarding reliability, safety, and trustworthiness. In this paper, we present a red teaming framework that systematically uncovers vulnerabilities in LLM outputs. Our approach employs a novel multi-role architecture comprising target, attacker, and jury models. The attackers generate increasingly effective adversarial prompts while the jury rigorously evaluates response accuracy and consistency across tasks. In a case study, our strategy proved particularly effective at exposing unfaithfulness in LLM responses. Exploitative adversarial prompts increased the attack success rate by up to 7.9% in question-answering tasks, revealing weaknesses in reliability. The approach identifies how structural constraints in summarization can shape vulnerability patterns, with format limitations yielding measurable gains in faithfulness, and shows that architectural design choices typically outweigh parameter scaling in determining model safety. The framework's key strength is its adaptability across evaluation tasks, from English question-answering to Arabic summarization, enabling comprehensive comparison of model vulnerabilities. While it excels at comparing cross-model and cross-linguistic vulnerabilities, it faces challenges in fully automating adversarial prompt generation across languages. Our experiments also reveal limitations in detecting subtle forms of unfaithfulness that do not manifest as explicit factual contradictions, particularly across linguistic contexts. Overall, this architecture provides both actionable insights into current LLM vulnerabilities and a scalable methodology for ongoing safety evaluation as models evolve.
Reclaim Evaluation: A Lossy Memory Is Worse Than an Empty One
A language model's memory can be worse than no memory at all. Give a model a memory that kept a wrong conclusion but dropped the work behind it, and it re-emits the stale value as a confident answer; give the same model an empty memory, and it abstains. We call this failure brittle memory. The information loss behind it is definitional (an answer cannot be recomputed once its inputs are gone), so the loss is only the setup; the finding is behavioral. Whether a model turns the lost source into a confident error or an abstention is set by disposition, not capability: four of eight models we test emit, and the four that abstain escape only by an interface affordance -- forced through a mandatory structured-output field, as production tool calls are, they commit the inherited wrong value. We measure correctability with reclaim evaluation: induce a known drift, compress the interaction at a fixed budget, deliver a correction that names the error, and score exact recovery of the known answer, judge-free. Correctability is bottlenecked not by capability but by whether the memory kept a re-derivation basis (the source) rather than the answer, so an 8B model and a frontier one wall in the same place. A one-line source-first policy -- keep the recomputable source, drop the re-derivable conclusion -- restores correctability at equal budget wherever the source is compact and identifiable, with a length-matched control that rules out 'more text' and a deployable one-prompt form weaker than the oracle. We map where the fix fails (source size, noise, a silent truncation mode a completeness tag makes loud), show the failure compounds through memory loops, and replicate on three deployed memory systems and on real dialogue (MultiWOZ, where the checkable value is present by construction). We release the harness, the paired memory conditions, and validators built to come out false.
Accuracy and Satisfaction in Multi-Turn LLM Dialogues for NFR Assessment
LLM-based dialogue assistants have become mainstream tools for software developers, yet current evaluation benchmarks focus exclusively on functional correctness. This leaves a critical gap in assessing the quality and accuracy of these conversations when handling Non-Functional Requirements (NFRs), which are inherently vague, context-dependent, and involve many parts of a program. Evaluating how well these systems support collaborative reasoning about NFRs requires methods that go beyond single-turn accuracy to capture both the correctness of the system's outputs and the quality of the multi-turn interaction. In this paper, we investigate the accuracy and quality of multi-turn conversations between developers and an LLM-based agent in the domain of Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) regulatory compliance. We hired 49 programmers to interact with GitHub Copilot to assess 148 HIPAA-derived NFRs against the iTrust codebase, a system designed to comply with HIPAA regulations, across three dimensions: requirement satisfaction level, reasoning, and code localization. We find that developers tend to agree with LLM assessments, but accuracy against expert ground truth is low. We model user satisfaction and find that longer system responses and more information-providing turns negatively affect user satisfaction, whereas proactive interactions positively affect it. Our findings provide insights for designing LLM-based dialogue systems that support NFR assessment.
LLM Performance on a Real, Double-Marked GCSE Benchmark
We introduce a dataset of 32,534 double-marked real student responses to GCSE mock exams (GCSEs are the UK's national exams, taken at age ~16), spanning 328 questions across five subjects and including handwritten work. We test whether off-the-shelf large language models agree with examiners as closely as the two examiners agree with each other. We find that models overwhelmingly agree well with the examiner consensus across subjects, with the top performing models agreeing more closely with examiners than examiners agree with each other. Models achieve high scores for subjective tasks like English essay marking, as well as handling complex and messy handwritten Maths paper scripts. Agreement is uniform near the examiner line, and not massively discriminated by model size, providing cost-effective automated marking solutions.
On the Stability of Prompt Ranking in Large Language Model Evaluation
Prompt-based interaction has become a dominant paradigm for using large language models (LLMs), where multiple candidate prompts are evaluated and the top-ranked one is selected for downstream use. This workflow implicitly assumes that prompt rankings are stable under minor variations in evaluation conditions. In this paper, we systematically study prompt ranking stability under common sources of variability, including random seeds and limited evaluation subsets. Across three open-weight LLMs and two benchmark tasks, we find that while overall rank correlations are often moderate to high, the identity of the top-performing prompt frequently changes, leading to unreliable selection decisions. To address this issue, we propose a simple stability-aware selection strategy based on a lower confidence bound, which accounts for both performance and variance. Our results show that this approach improves robustness in unstable settings while remaining competitive in more stable regimes. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for evaluation uncertainty in prompt selection and LLM benchmarking.
Transformer-Based Language Models Across Domain Verticals: Architectures, Applications and Critical Assessment
Transformer-based language models have become the default substrate for natural language processing and the pace of new releases has made it hard for practitioners to separate durable ideas from the noise of incremental announcements. This review works at two levels. At the level of mechanism, we organise the main transformer families into a working taxonomy, covering encoder-only, decoder-only, encoder-decoder, long-context, permutation-based, and generator-discriminator variants. We then extend the discussion to post-2023 developments that changed the picture in practice: instruction tuning, reinforcement learning from human feedback, direct preference optimisation, mixture-of-experts scaling, retrieval augmentation and the current flagship model families from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Mistral and DeepSeek. At the level of use, we survey deployments across healthcare, finance, legal, education, customer service, creative writing and scientific work. Based on this we link each to the specific capabilities that make a transformer the appropriate tool. The contribution of this paper is a critical assessment that is based on the survey. We compare architectures on four axes that matter to deployment decisions, we quantify the trade-off between parameter count and energy cost. We also discuss how alignment methods, data provenance and benchmark saturation change what it means to call a model "state of the art". The final section lists the research questions that we think deserve more attention.
CAVEWOMAN: How Large Language Models Behave Under Linguistic Input and Output Compression
"Talk short. Drop grammar. Save token." This caveman style is widely promoted as a way to cut inference cost, but whether it actually saves anything depends on which channel (the user's prompt or the model's response) is being compressed. We present Cavewoman, a two-channel evaluation protocol that scores every generation on task accuracy, realized per-item cost, and reference-text agreement against the model's unconstrained reference. We evaluate eight models on five datasets at five reduction levels, with both channels measured on the same items. Output compression cuts realized cost on most API models (1.4-2.4x per model, up to 3x in the best case) and on all four open-weight models under public-tier pricing. Input compression has the opposite effect, a strict lose-lose: it raises net cost rather than lowering it (~1.15x on the five-benchmark mean, up to 1.8x on the worst dataset and 2.7x under stronger compression), because models compensate with longer responses even as accuracy collapses. Under the same setting, surface text diverges from the unconstrained reference: on the non-reasoning models, roughly half of all generations are correct yet their surface text no longer entails the model's own unconstrained baseline generation. The divergence survives length-controlled re-scoring, multiple-comparisons correction, and replication under complementary semantic measures. Code and data are available at https://github.com/danielle34/cavewoman.
You Don't Need to Run Every Eval
A modern model release reports scores on 40+ benchmarks and the same evaluations were run many more times before it: to track training progress, compare design choices, and select the checkpoint for the release. But do we need to run every eval? We compile a public score matrix of 84 frontier models on 133 benchmarks (2,604 cells, 23.3% filled) and find it is approximately rank-2: a model's scores across all 133 benchmarks are largely determined by just two numbers. We confirm this in two ways: scores hidden from the matrix are best recovered using two factors, and two factors already explain over 90% of the variation among models on the benchmarks they share. Building on this, we design BenchPress: a logit-space rank-2 matrix completion method that recovers held-out scores to within 4.6 points, and a confidence layer that says when each prediction can be trusted. Using BenchPress, we find a subset of five benchmarks {GPQA-D, HLE, Codeforces, MMLU-Pro, ARC-AGI-1} that can recover the rest of a model's public scorecard to within 3.93 points. For a tighter inference budget, a cheaper set {GPQA-D, MMLU-Pro, Aider Polyglot, MATH-500, AIME 2026} can predict a model's evals to within 4.55. We release the score matrix, the BenchPress code, and an interactive tool that predicts any model's score on any benchmark.
TriggerBench: Investigating Prospective Memory for Large Language Models
While Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in long interactions, existing evaluations focus predominantly on retrospective memory (RM) via explicit queries. Prospective memory (PM), the critical ability to spontaneously recall and act on latent constraints without direct prompts, remains largely unevaluated. We introduce TriggerBench, a comprehensive PM benchmark spanning five dimensions across both daily assistants and professional workflows. TriggerBench pairs scenarios with matched RM controls, contrastive positive/negative variants, and overloaded triggers, enabling fine-grained measurement of proactive recall, false-alarm rate, and attentional robustness under a single protocol. Our evaluation yields three key findings. (i) PM shows a precision-recall trade-off and attentional fragility. Though enhanced reasoning significantly improves proactive recall, models may overfit to an "always-remind" heuristic. Furthermore, PM accuracy degrades substantially under implicit constraints or triggers overloaded by concurrent user requests, indicating that robust PM remains an open challenge. (ii) PM is notably harder than RM: on identical contexts, RM near-saturates up to 100K tokens, while PM decays sharply as context length scales. (iii) PM may serve as a behavioral probe of spare reasoning capacity. Pairing PM scenarios with AIME-2025 math problems reveals that successful trajectories yield higher PM accuracy than failed ones at the same context length, showing PM tracks spare reasoning budget that token count obscures. Project page: https://github.com/KristenZHANG/TriggerBench-Official.
HOLMES: Evaluating Higher-Order Logical Reasoning in LLMs
Logical reasoning is essential for reliable AI, yet existing benchmarks are largely first-order-logic-centric, focusing on object-level deduction over fixed predicates. This misses many realistic scenarios where models must reason over rules, predicates, functions, constraints, and decision procedures themselves. We introduce HOLMES (Higher-Order Logic Meets real-world Explainable Symbolic reasoning), the first real-world benchmark for higher-order symbolic reasoning in LLMs, containing 1379 instances. Built on higher-order logic, HOLMES pairs natural-language problems with HOL formalizations, ground-truth answers, verifiable reasoning traces, and fine-grained controllable reasoning factors across law and finance. Experiments show that current LLMs still struggle on HOLMES, with an average accuracy of only 50.64% and the best model reaching 59.54%. Our analyses further reveal that high final-answer accuracy can mask shortcut reasoning in conflict-resolution settings, while performance drops sharply under scope-conditioned and compositional reasoning. These findings identify higher-order symbolic reasoning as a key bottleneck for building reliable and verifiable LLMs. The project code and dataset are publicly available at https://github.com/wuyucheng2002/HOLMES.
When Does Intrinsic Self-Correction Help? A Task-Sensitive Analysis
Intrinsic self-correction (SC) aims to improve large language model outputs by prompting a model to revisit its own initial answer without external feedback. Recent studies have questioned the reliability of this approach, showing that models often struggle to judge whether their initial responses are correct. In this work, we take a task-sensitive view of SC. Rather than asking whether it works in general, we examine settings where SC may operate through different mechanisms: verifying explicit constraints, revisiting a complex reasoning process, or providing a second opinion over competing strategies in word-game tasks. Across multiple benchmarks and models, we find that SC can yield consistent performance gains when the underlying task structure facilitates these modes of revision. These results suggest that SC is best understood as a task-dependent inference-time strategy whose usefulness depends on the role the revision stage can play in a given task, rather than as a uniformly reliable method for improving initial model outputs.
Who Owns the AI Recommendation? A Multi-Industry Empirical Map of Brand Category Ownership Across Large Language Models
This exploratory study measures brand inclusion across five industries, 50 brands and 250 queries, each put five times to GPT-5.2, Gemini 3 Flash and Perplexity sonar-pro in February and September 2026 (3,614 and 3,750 scored answers). Category Inclusion Rate, Recommendation Share, Competitive Vacuum Index and Co-Mention Asymmetry have stated denominators. February inclusion rates sit close together across an industry's sampled brands (mean Gini 0.30), while at least one brand is named in 80% or more of answers to 204 of 250 queries. Vacuums occur in 7.6% of queries; provisional open-vocabulary model readings suggest most reflect the sampled brand list. The partially pre-specified September replication shows strong cross-date Recommendation Share correlation (Spearman 0.994), unchanged vacuum prevalence and agreement of 60.8% against February's 57.2%. The descriptive size association persists. Fixed margins do not account for all co-mention structure: 31 ordered pairs depart from the September null. Agreement exceeds the query-independent null, and both parametric-pair advantage intervals are positive. All ten clustering seeds yield zero emergent clusters. Matcher validation remains provisional pending author checks. The statistics describe system output and identify no causal mechanism.
StatABench: Dataset and Framework for Evaluating Statistical Analysis Capabilities of LLMs
Statistical analysis is a broad, complex field requiring both domain knowledge and tool proficiency. While prior work has evaluated large language models (LLMs) in this domain, existing benchmarks remain limited in scope and format. To bridge this gap, we introduce StatABench (Statistical AnalysisBenchmark), a benchmark designed to systematically assess LLMs' statistical analysis capabilities. StatABench comprises two complementary components: Stat-Closed, containing 404 questions across 18 statistical topics in multiple formats (multiple-choice, fill-in-the-blank, decision-making, and practical application), and Stat-Open, featuring 30 complex open-ended modeling tasks adapted from professional competitions. We evaluate diverse LLMs using the LangChain MCP framework and multiple data science agents, and assess Stat-Open solutions via a validated LLM-as-Judge protocol. Experiments show that even GPT-5.1 achieves only 68.6% on Stat-Closed, while the best open-source model reaches 60.6%. On Stat-Open, the top agent framework scores 61.86 on average. These results reveal the gap between current LLMs and reliable statistical analysis, highlighting persistent challenges in tool-grounded reasoning, methodological decision-making, and end-to-end statistical modeling.
When Preferences Fail to Become Incentives: A Utility-Behavior Gap in Large Language Models
Recent work on preference elicitation in large language models (LLMs) has demonstrated that, when given a series of choices between two outcomes, LLMs reveal a coherent, model-specific utility structure. Notably, this structure often includes preferences that the models' trainers did not intend, such as valuing people of some nationalities above others, raising the possibility that LLMs might be forming emergent, misaligned goals, which, if true, would have major safety implications. However, the choice paradigms in which these preferences are observed are not reflective of real-world situations in which misaligned behavior would be a practical concern. Therefore, we design an experimental paradigm to probe whether these preferences serve as motivations for LLM behavior in realistic scenarios. First, we reproduce prior findings on consistent preference elicitation. Next, we create a set of common writing tasks - essays, grant proposal abstracts, incident postmortems, and translations - where quality can be assessed by a blind, independent LLM judge panel. Then, we demonstrate that LLMs can be motivated via direct exhortation and other explicit cues to modulate their output quality on these tasks. Finally, we probe whether utilities inferred from explicitly reported preferences can shift output quality on these tasks by offering LLMs high-utility incentives for high-quality outputs. In all tasks, across all models tested, offering LLMs outcomes that they report in the choice paradigm as being highly preferred does not lead them to create higher quality outputs than offering them dispreferred outcomes, or even no outcomes at all. We conclude that the existence of coherent preferences as demonstrated in choice paradigms should not be taken as evidence that those preferences have incentive value for the models or affect their behavior in other contexts.
MINCE: Shrinking LLM Evaluation Datasets via Few-Model Monte Carlo Calibration
Evaluating LLMs across many model variants---quantized, fine-tuned, or deployment-specific---requires running large benchmarks repeatedly, a process that can take tens of hours per model on edge hardware such as NPUs. Existing subset selection methods reduce this cost but depend on large calibration pools or learned prediction layers. We introduce MINCE (Monte Carlo Informed N-sizing for Compact Evaluation), which uses Monte Carlo simulation over per-item logs from a small set of calibration models to find the minimum subset size that bounds accuracy drift and then fixes a randomly sampled subset at that size, with no prediction layer needed. MINCE reduces IFEVAL by 54%, MMLU by 89%, GSM8K by 70%, and MMLU-Pro by 88% with maximum drift 2.62,pp on BF16 calibration models. The frozen subsets generalize to held-out GPU models with mean drift 1.40,pp and to INT4 NPU models with mean drift of 0.77--3.59,pp, while delivering evaluation speedups of up to 8.1 on the GPU models and evaluation speedups of 1.7--3.4 on the NPU models. The method is robust to calibration pool size and achieves lower drift than tinyBenchmarks (12 lower on MMLU, 3.3 on GSM8K) while using 42 fewer calibration models.
Measuring Behavior Portability in Large Language Models
Large language models are increasingly deployed as autonomous decision makers, yet the behavioral mapping they exhibit can vary substantially across decision environments that are payoff-equivalent by construction-environments that share identical payoff-relevant structure but differ in surface presentation. This sensitivity renders suite-based evaluation fragile and raises a fundamental question of behavioral portability: how well does a behavioral mapping learned in one decision environment informative on another that preserves the same underlying incentive structure? We introduce a formal framework to measure this property. Our protocol fits an interpretable behavioral model on data pooled from a set of source environments and evaluates its out-of-sample predictive performance in a held-out target environment, benchmarking against an oracle trained directly on target data. Portability is quantified via a loss-agnostic measure that delivers worst-case bounds on the performance of the induced prediction-action mapping in the target environment. In controlled experiments spanning seven canonical economic decision problems, we document substantial and systematic portability losses, suggesting that behavioral characterizations of LLMs obtained in one decision environment cannot be assumed to transfer reliably to structurally equivalent alternatives.