LLM Reliability

LLM: Large Language Model

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78 papers in the last four weeks, up 105% on the four weeks before. 0.8% of all new papers.

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Unsupervised Confidence Calibration for Reasoning LLMs from a Single Generation
Apr 21, 2026Thomas Zollo, Jimmy Wang, Richard ZemelConfidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration
Columbia University
Talking to a Know-It-All GPT or a Second-Guesser Claude? How Repair reveals unreliable Multi-Turn Behavior in LLMs
Apr 21, 2026Clara Lachenmaier, Hannah Bultmann, Sina ZarrießLLM Self-Correction Human-AI Interaction
Computational Linguistics, Department of Linguistics Bielefeld University, Germany
AI scientists produce results without reasoning scientifically
Apr 20, 2026Martiño Ríos-García, Nawaf Alampara, Chandan Gupta +5AI Agent Reliability Scientific Reasoning
Laboratory of Organic and Macromolecular Chemistry (IOMC), Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Humboldstr. 10, 07743 Jena, Germany · Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016, India · School of Interdisciplinary Research, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016, India +3
Remask, Don't Replace: Token-to-Mask Refinement in Diffusion Large Language Models
Apr 20, 2026Lin YaoLLM Self-Correction Multi-Token Prediction
School of Computer Science, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200240, China · Zhongguancun Academy, Beijing, 100097, China
Correction and Corruption: A Two-Rate View of Error Flow in LLM Protocols
Apr 20, 2026Fernando ReitichLLM Evaluation LLM Auditing
Imens, LLC · Weston, Florida, USA
BEACON: Behavioral Entropy Aggregation for Cross-Model Hallucination Detection in Large Language Models
Apr 20, 2026Naveen Bera, Pulijala Sai Nikhila, Kondaguduru Abhiram +6LLM Evaluation Hallucination Detection
LLM Lens
Screen Before You Interpret: A Portable Validity Protocol for Benchmark-Based LLM Confidence Signals
Apr 20, 2026Jon-Paul CacioliLLM Evaluation Psychometric Validation
Independent Researcher, Melbourne, Australia
The Geometric Canary: Predicting Steerability and Detecting Drift via Representational Stability
Apr 20, 2026Prashant C. RajuLanguage Model Steering LLM Reliability
Calibrated? Not for Everyone: How Sexual Orientation and Religious Markers Distort LLM Accuracy and Confidence in Medical QA
Apr 19, 2026Alberto Testoni, Iacer CalixtoHealthcare Social Bias in Language Models
Department of Medical Informatics, Amsterdam University Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. · Amsterdam Public Health, Methodology, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Beyond "I Don't Know": Evaluating LLM Self-Awareness in Discriminating Data and Model Uncertainty
Apr 19, 2026Jingyi Ren, Ante Wang, Yunghwei Lai +5LLM Evaluation Selective Prediction
Dept. of Comp. Sci. & Tech., Institute for AI, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China · Institute for AI Industry Research (AIR), Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
Instinct vs. Reflection: Unifying Token and Verbalized Confidence in Multimodal Large Models
Apr 19, 2026Yunkai Dang, Yifan Jiang, Yizhu Jiang +3Selective Prediction Confidence Estimation in Language Models
School of Artificial Intelligence, Nanjing University.
Complementing Self-Consistency with Cross-Model Disagreement for Uncertainty Quantification
Apr 18, 2026Kimia Hamidieh, Veronika Thost, Walter Gerych +2Selective Prediction Confidence Estimation in Language Models
1MIT · MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab · 3WPI +1
Abstain-R1: Calibrated Abstention and Post-Refusal Clarification via Verifiable RL
Apr 18, 2026Skylar Zhai, Jingcheng Liang, Dongyeop KangLLM Hallucination Mitigation RL for Language Model Reasoning
University of Minnesota
Evaluating Tool-Using Language Agents: Judge Reliability, Propagation Cascades, and Runtime Mitigation in AgentProp-Bench
Apr 17, 2026Bhaskar GurramAI Agent Reliability Tool-Augmented Language Model Agents
Zasti Inc., Ashburn, VA, USA
No-Worse Context-Aware Decoding: Preventing Neutral Regression in Context-Conditioned Generation
Apr 17, 2026Yufei Tao, Ameeta AgrawalLanguage Model Decoding LLM Reliability
Department of Computer Science, Portland State University, USA
Beyond Surface Statistics: Robust Conformal Prediction for LLMs via Internal Representations
Apr 17, 2026Yanli Wang, Peng Kuang, Xiaoyu Han +2Confidence Estimation in Language Models Conformal Prediction
Imperial College London · Zhejiang University · University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign +1
LLMs Corrupt Your Documents When You Delegate
Apr 17, 2026Philippe Laban, Tobias Schnabel, Jennifer NevilleLLM Reliability Long-Horizon LLM Agents
Microsoft Research
Diagnosing LLM Judge Reliability: Conformal Prediction Sets and Transitivity Violations
Apr 16, 2026Manan Gupta, Dhruv KumarLLM Evaluation LLM-as-a-Judge
1BITS Pilani, Pilani Campus, India
IUQ: Interrogative Uncertainty Quantification for Long-Form Large Language Model Generation
Apr 16, 2026Haozhi Fan, Jinhao Duan, Kaidi XuUncertainty Quantification Language Model Generation Evaluation
University of Pennsylvania · 2UNC Chapel Hill · 3City University of Hong Kong
Pushing the Boundaries of Multiple Choice Evaluation to One Hundred Options
Apr 16, 2026Nahyun Lee, Guijin SonLLM Evaluation Multiple-Choice Question Answering
Chung-Ang University · Seoul National University
Correct Prediction, Wrong Steps? Consensus Reasoning Knowledge Graph for Robust Chain-of-Thought Synthesis
Apr 15, 2026Zipeng Ling, Shuliang Liu, Seonil Son +4Logical Reasoning Self-Consistency Decoding
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) · University of Alberta · Alberta Machine Intelligence Institute +3
The Anatomy of Uncertainty in LLMs
Mar 26, 2026Aditya Taparia, Ransalu Senanayake, Kowshik Thopalli +1LLM Auditing LLM Reliability
School of Computing and Augmented Intelligence, Arizona State University · Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Verify to Amplify: Improving Reasoning via Learned Chain-of-Thought Verification
Mar 3, 2026Maria-Florina Balcan, Avrim Blum, Kiriaki Fragkia +2LLM Evaluation LLM Answer Verification
Carnegie Mellon University · Toyota Technological Institute at Chicago · Northwestern University
Probing for Knowledge Attribution in Large Language Models
Feb 26, 2026Ivo Brink, Alexander Boer, Dennis UlmerLLM Interpretability Hallucination in Language Models
KPMG NL / University of Amsterdam Amsterdam, The Netherlands · KPMG NL Amsterdam, The Netherlands · University of Amsterdam Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Ontology-Guided Neuro-Symbolic Inference: Grounding Language Models with Mathematical Domain Knowledge
Feb 19, 2026Marcelo LabreRetrieval-Augmented Generation LLM Grounding
Advanced Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2)
Fine-Grained Uncertainty Quantification for Long-Form Language Model Outputs: A Comparative Study
Feb 19, 2026Dylan Bouchard, Mohit Singh Chauhan, Viren Bajaj +1LLM Hallucination Mitigation Hallucination in Language Models
CVS Health, Wellesley, MA
ReLoop: Structured Modeling and Behavioral Verification for Reliable LLM-Based Optimization
Feb 17, 2026Junbo Jacob Lian, Yujun Sun, Huiling Chen +3LLM-Based Program Synthesis LLM Reliability
Institute of Operations Research and Analytics, National University of Singapore · McCormick School of Engineering, Northwestern University · Wenzhou Buyi Pharmacy Chain Co., Ltd. +2
On Calibration of Large Language Models: From Response To Capability
Feb 14, 2026Sin-Han Yang, Cheng-Kuang Wu, Chieh-Yen Lin +3LLM Evaluation Confidence Estimation in Language Models
Appier AI Research · National Taiwan University
When Agents Disagree With Themselves: Behavioral Consistency as an Uncertainty Signal for LLM Agents
Feb 12, 2026Aman MehtaAI Agent Reliability Selective Prediction
Snowflake AI Research
Decomposed Prompting Does Not Fix Knowledge Gaps, But Helps Models Say "I Don't Know"
Feb 4, 2026Dhruv Madhwal, Lyuxin David Zhang, Dan Roth +2LLM Prompting Question Decomposition
Arizona State University · University of Pennsylvania · Oracle AI

Apr 21, 2026, cs.LGJ/K move · Enter open · S save

Unsupervised Confidence Calibration for Reasoning LLMs from a Single Generation

Thomas Zollo, Jimmy Wang, Richard Zemel

Columbia University

Confidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration LLM Reliability LLM Uncertainty Estimation Self-Consistency in Language Models Large Reasoning Models

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Reasoning language models can solve increasingly complex tasks, but struggle to produce the calibrated confidence estimates necessary for reliable deployment. Existing calibration methods usually depend on labels or repeated sampling at inference time, making them impractical in many settings. We introduce a method for unsupervised confidence calibration of reasoning LLMs when only a single generation is available at inference time. Our approach uses offline sampling on unlabeled data to derive a self-consistency-based proxy target, then distills this signal into a lightweight deployment-time confidence predictor. In a broad evaluation across 5 math and question-answering tasks using 9 reasoning models, our method substantially outperforms baselines, including under distribution shift, and improves downstream performance in selective prediction and simulated downstream decision-making.

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