Precipitation Forecasting

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Latest papers 54

12 papers in the last four weeks, up 50% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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Temporal Context Conditioning for Seasonality-Aware Precipitation Nowcasting of High-Intensity Rainfall
Jun 8, 2026Gijs van Nieuwkoop, Siamak MehrkanoonPrecipitation Forecasting U-Net
Department of Information and Computing Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
Learning to Refine: Spectral-Decoupled Iterative Refinement Framework for Precipitation Nowcasting
Jun 1, 2026Yunlong Zhou, Chen Zhao, Danyang Peng +2Precipitation Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
School of Intelligence Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Suzhou, 215163, China. · State Key Laboratory for Novel Software Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China.
Probabilistic Precipitation Nowcasting with Rectified Flow Transformers
May 29, 2026Johannes Schusterbauer, Jannik Wiese, Nick Stracke +2Precipitation Forecasting Rectified Flow
Beyond MSE: Improving Precipitation Nowcasting with Multi-Quantile Regression
May 28, 2026Gijs van Nieuwkoop, Siamak MehrkanoonPrecipitation Forecasting Quantile Regression
Department of Information and Computing Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
Seeing Inside the Storm: Improving Nowcasting by Integrating Meteorological Drivers
May 22, 2026Minghui Qiu, Jun Chen, Lin Chen +5Precipitation Forecasting Remote Sensing
HKUST(GZ) · Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory
SwAIther-Precip: Lead-Time-Aware Bias Correction Enables Kilometer-Scale Downscaling of Global AI Precipitation Forecasts over Switzerland
May 15, 2026Dan Assouline, Erwan Koch, Federico Amato +5Precipitation Forecasting Time Series Forecasting
Swiss Data Science Center, ETH, Zürich, Switzerland · Expertise Center for Climate Extremes, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland · Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland +1
MambaRain: Multi-Scale Mamba-Attention Framework for 0-3 Hour Precipitation Nowcasting
May 14, 2026Chunlei Shi, Cui Wu, Xiang Xu +10Mamba Precipitation Forecasting
School of Automation, Southeast University · Nanjing XinDa Institute of Meteorological Science and Technology · Beijing Leninainfo Technology Co., Ltd. +5
VMU-Diff: A Coarse-to-fine Multi-source Data Fusion Framework for Precipitation Nowcasting
May 14, 2026Chunlei Shi, Hao Li, Yufeng Zhu +6Precipitation Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting
Department of Automation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Guided Diffusion Sampling for Precipitation Forecast Interventions
May 14, 2026Ayumu Ueyama, Kazuhiko Kawamoto, Hiroshi KeraPrecipitation Forecasting Diffusion Model Guidance
Chiba University · National Institute of Informatics
McCast: Memory-Guided Latent Drift Correction for Long-Horizon Precipitation Nowcasting
May 13, 2026Penghui Wen, Yu Luo, Lintao Wang +4Memory-Augmented Neural Networks Precipitation Forecasting
School of Computer Science, The University of Sydney, Australia · School of Life and Environmental Science, The University of Sydney, Australia
Stable Attention Response for Reliable Precipitation Nowcasting
May 13, 2026Penghui Wen, Zexin Hu, Sen Zhang +6Precipitation Forecasting Attention Head Analysis
School of Computer Science, The University of Sydney Australia · Independent Researcher Australia · School of Life and Environmental Science, The University of Sydney Australia +3
PixelFlowCast: Latent-Free Precipitation Nowcasting via Pixel Mean Flows
May 11, 2026Yufeng Zhu, Chunlei Shi, Yongchao Feng +1Precipitation Forecasting Efficient Inference
Department of Automation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China · State Key Laboratory of Virtual Reality Technology and Systems, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
Two Hebrew folk meteorological proverbs tested: rainfall on Rosh Chodesh and Shabbat Mevarechim as predictors of monthly precipitation (Israel, 1950-2024)
May 6, 2026Abraham Itzhak WeinbergPrecipitation Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting
AI-WEINBERG, AI Experts [physics.ao-ph]
CNN-based Multi-In-Multi-Out Model for Efficient Spatiotemporal Prediction
May 2, 2026Hyeonseok JinEfficient Neural Network Inference Precipitation Forecasting
Department of Artificial Intelligence Convergence, Graduate School, Chonnam National University
IMPA-Net: Meteorology-Aware Multi-Scale Attention and Dynamic Loss for Extreme Convective Radar Nowcasting
Apr 27, 2026Haofei Cui, Guangxin He, Juanzhen Sun +5Precipitation Forecasting Multi-Scale Feature Fusion
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME) / International Joint Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC) / Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China. · Nanchang Meteorological Bureau, Nanchang 330000, China. · National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80301, USA. +3
Improvements to the post-processing of weather forecasts using machine learning and feature selection
Apr 21, 2026Kazuma Iwase, Tomoyuki TakenawaPrecipitation Forecasting Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees
Graduate School of Marine Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, 2-1-6 Etchujima, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135-8533, Japan
Accurate Precipitation Forecast by Efficiently Learning from Massive Atmospheric Variables and Unbalanced Distribution
Mar 27, 2026Shuangliang Li, Siwei Li, Li Li +3Precipitation Forecasting Class-Imbalanced Learning
Hubei Key Laboratory of Quantitative Remote Sensing of Land and Atmosphere, School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430079, China · Perception and Effectiveness Assessment for Carbon-neutrality Efforts, Engineering Research Center of Ministry of Education, Institute for Carbon Neutrality, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China · Hubei Meteorological Information and Technology Support Center, Wuhan, 430074, China
MP-MoE: Matrix Profile-Guided Mixture of Experts for Precipitation Forecasting
Mar 26, 2026Huyen Ngoc Tran, Dung Trung Tran, Hong Nguyen +2Precipitation Forecasting Weather Forecasting
School of Electronics and Electrical Engineering, Hanoi University of Science and Technology · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Southern California, United States
Assessing the Utility of Volumetric Motion Fields for Radar-based Precipitation Nowcasting with Physics-informed Deep Learning
Mar 13, 2026Peter Pavlík, Anna Bou Ezzeddine, Viera RozinajováPrecipitation Nowcasting Precipitation Forecasting
Kempelen Institute of Intelligent Technologies, Sky Park Offices, Bottova 7939/2A, Bratislava 811 09, Slovakia · Faculty of Information Technology, Brno University of Technology, Božetěchova 2, Brno 612 00, Czech Republic
MAD-SmaAt-GNet: A Multimodal Advection-Guided Neural Network for Precipitation Nowcasting
Mar 3, 2026Samuel van Wonderen, Siamak MehrkanoonPrecipitation Forecasting Precipitation Nowcasting
Department of Information and Computing Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
FusionCast: Enhancing Precipitation Nowcasting with Asymmetric Cross-Modal Fusion and Future Radar Priors
Mar 2, 2026Henan Wang, Shengwu Xiong, Yifang Zhang +4Precipitation Nowcasting Precipitation Forecasting
School of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, Wuhan University of Technology · School of Earth and Space Science and Technology, Wuhan University
A Space-Time Transformer for Precipitation Nowcasting
Nov 14, 2025Levi Harris, Tianlong ChenPrecipitation Forecasting Transformer
UNC Chapel Hill
CSU-PCAST: A Dual-Branch Transformer Framework for medium-range ensemble Precipitation Forecasting
Oct 23, 2025Tianyi Xiong, Haonan Chen, Kelly Mahoney +3Precipitation Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting
Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO · NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO
A Storm-Centric 250 m NEXRAD Level-II Dataset for High-Resolution ML Nowcasting
Oct 15, 2025Andy ShiPrecipitation Forecasting Precipitation Nowcasting

Jun 8, 2026J/K move · Enter open · S save

Temporal Context Conditioning for Seasonality-Aware Precipitation Nowcasting of High-Intensity Rainfall

Gijs van Nieuwkoop, Siamak Mehrkanoon

Department of Information and Computing Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

Precipitation Forecasting U-Net Time Series Forecasting Precipitation Nowcasting

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Precipitation nowcasting is increasingly being approached with deep learning models that learn directly from recent radar observations. Although such models can efficiently capture short-term precipitation motion, they often lack broader contextual information about the meteorological conditions under which rainfall develops. This paper investigates whether lightweight temporal context can improve radar-based nowcasting, particularly for high-intensity rainfall. We propose the Time-Aware Small-Attention U-Net (TA-SmaAt-UNet), which extends the core SmaAt-UNet model with temporal conditioning layers that use cyclical encodings of time-of-day and time-of-year to modulate intermediate feature representations. Experiments on KNMI radar precipitation data show that temporal conditioning is most beneficial for rare, high-intensity precipitation events, while also improving the representation of seasonal variability and predicted rainfall-intensity distributions. A layer conductance analysis further indicates that the added temporal conditioning layers are actively used by the model despite their small parameter cost. These findings suggest that simple, physically motivated temporal context can improve the realism and reliability of deep learning-based precipitation nowcasts. The implementation of our models and training setup is available on GitHub.