Probabilistic Circuits

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Overview

Probabilistic circuits represent distributions with structured sums and products, allowing exact computations such as likelihood evaluation and marginalization when their structure meets conditions like decomposability. Researchers learn these structures with methods such as sum-product networks, expectation-maximization, and reinforcement-learning-based search, and combine circuits with neural models to increase flexibility. Applications include tabular density estimation, time-series forecasting, out-of-distribution detection, causal reasoning, and decision support. A central tension is that constraints enabling tractable inference can limit how well circuits capture complex dependencies, while evaluation metrics and comparisons with neural and diffusion models remain important open issues.

Latest papers

CardsList

18 papers3 papers in the last four weeks, against 1 the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

  1. Soft Ontology Priors over Latent Concept Posteriors for Weakly Supervised Neuro-Symbolic Learning

    Oct 21, 2026Tengwei Song, Robert HoehndorfNeurosymbolic LearningWeakly Supervised Learning

    CEMSE, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia

  2. Latent State Utilization in Probabilistic Circuits

    Oct 16, 2026Zilei Shao, Anji LiuProbabilistic CircuitsLatent Variable Models

    University of California, Los Angeles · School of Computing, National University of Singapore

  3. DisCoMBO: Steering Expert-in-the-Loop Black-Box Optimization via Distributional Conformance

    Sep 29, 2026Jonas Seng, Bennet Wittelsbach, Kristian KerstingBlack-Box OptimizationBayesian Optimization

    Computer Science Department, TU Darmstadt · TU Darmstadt, Hessian.AI, DFKI

  4. On the Complexity of the Compatibility Problem for Succinctly Encoded Conditional Distributions

    Aug 31, 2026Guy EmersonProbabilistic Circuits

  5. Probabilistic Circuits as Reasoning Machines in Artificial Intelligence (Part I)

    Aug 17, 2026Robert PeharzProbabilistic CircuitsProbabilistic Graphical Models

    Institute of Machine Learning and Neural Computation Graz University of Technology

  6. A Compositional Theory of Curvature in Probabilistic Circuits

    Aug 13, 2026Hrithik Suresh, Sahil Sidheekh, Shelar Parth Vijay +3Sharpness-Aware MinimizationProbabilistic Circuits

    Mehta Family School of Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, Department of Data Science, Indian Institute of Technology Palakkad, Kerala, India · Erik Jonsson School of Engineering & Computer Science, The University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX, USA · AT&T CDO

  7. A Probabilistic Circuit-Induced Pseudo-Metric for Out-of-Distribution Detection

    Aug 10, 2026Bhumika K, Vidhya S, Narayanan C KrishnanProbabilistic CircuitsOOD Detection

    Mehta Family School of Data Science and Artificial Intelligence Indian Institute of Technology Palakkad Palakkad, Kerala, India

  8. Diverse and Plausible Algorithmic Recourse via Tractable Recourse Distributions

    Aug 5, 2026Anagha Sabu, Hrithik Suresh, Narayanan C. KrishnanProbabilistic CircuitsAlgorithmic Recourse

    Mehta Family School of Data Science and Artificial Intelligence Indian Institute of Technology Palakkad Palakkad, Kerala, India

  9. PeTeR: Post-Training Robustification of Probabilistic Circuits

    Jul 8, 2026Adrian Ciotinga, Yeming Dai, YooJung ChoiDistribution Shift RobustnessProbabilistic Circuits

    School of Computing and Augmented Intelligence, Arizona State University

  10. Scalable Uncertainty Reasoning in Knowledge Graphs

    May 15, 2026Jingcheng WuProbabilistic CircuitsUncertainty Quantification

    University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany

  11. The Expressivity Boundary of Probabilistic Circuits: A Comparison with Large Language Models

    May 13, 2026Zhiyu Zhao, Xuejie Liu, Muhan Zhang +1Probabilistic CircuitsAutoregressive Language Modeling

    School of Computing, National University of Singapore · School of Intelligence Science and Technology, Peking University · Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Peking University

  12. Hallucination as an Anomaly: Dynamic Intervention via Probabilistic Circuits

    May 7, 2026Erik Nielsen, Elia Cunegatti, Marcus Vukojevic +1Probabilistic CircuitsLLM Hallucination Mitigation

    Department of Information Engineering and Computer Science University of Trento Trento, Italy

  13. Probabilistic Circuits for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

    Apr 30, 2026Christian Klötergens, Lars Schmidt-Thieme, Vijaya Krishna YalavarthiIrregular Time-Series ModelingMultivariate Time Series Forecasting

    ISMLL, University of Hildesheim, Germany · VWFS, Data Analytics Research Center

  14. A Sobering Look at Tabular Data Generation via Probabilistic Circuits

    Mar 24, 2026Davide Scassola, Dylan Ponsford, Adrián Javaloy +4Synthetic Tabular Data GenerationProbabilistic Circuits

    AILAB, University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy · Aindo SpA, AREA Science Park, Trieste, Italy · School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK

  15. SymCircuit: Bayesian Structure Inference for Tractable Probabilistic Circuits via Entropy-Regularized Reinforcement Learning

    Mar 20, 2026Y. Sungtaek JuProbabilistic CircuitsUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles

  16. Geometry-Aware Probabilistic Circuits via Voronoi Tessellations

    Mar 12, 2026Sahil Sidheekh, Sriraam NatarajanProbabilistic CircuitsDensity Estimation

    The University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX, USA.

  17. Causal Neural Probabilistic Circuits

    Mar 2, 2026Weixin Chen, Han ZhaoConcept Bottleneck ModelsCausal Intervention

    University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

  18. Building Expressive and Tractable Probabilistic Generative Models: A Review

    Feb 1, 2024Sahil Sidheekh, Sriraam NatarajanProbabilistic CircuitsGenerative Modeling

    The University of Texas at Dallas