Ridge Regression
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2 papers in the last four weeks, with none the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.
Latest papers 22
We study the accuracy of Gauss-Newton curvature in ridge-regularized nonlinear least squares. Under local regularity and persistence of level-set curvature magnitude along an exact-fit section, we prove uniform coexistence of two curvature regimes. Global minimizers exist, and every global minimizer has relative Hessian error below , while the same low-cost set contains a point with an indefinite Hessian and relative error at least . One positive ridge cap works for all independent center and label perturbations in fixed neighborhoods and every positive ridge weight up to the cap. These neighborhoods do not shrink as the ridge weight tends to zero. A pointwise certificate based on the current prediction level set controls the normal, mixed, and tangent parts of the Hessian correction. We prove a sharp relative-error bound over the stated pointwise class when the prediction map and ridge vary. Analytic examples describe the roles of output alignment, curvature orientation, and persistence. A separate structural result gives full Jacobian row rank throughout low-cost sets and exact interpolation near a rank-deficient reference.
Exact Calibration and Sharp Risk Geometry for Volume-Sampled Ridge Regression
We study ridge regression from exactly distinct rows of a fixed design. Responses are fixed, and only the subset is random. The determinant law and selected ridge fit share one positive definite penalty. Established mean identities and exponential-family duality give the unique penalty that matches a prescribed full-data ridge fit in expectation. It exists exactly when exceeds the target's effective dimension. Our main result concerns centered covariance risk normalized by full-data penalized loss. For balanced signed coordinate replicas, a strict sector inequality gives the sharp risk and all maximizing responses at every budget from the dimension to one below the row count. This holds for any nonzero positive semidefinite query. With the target and query fixed, the maximizing response space is unchanged across these budgets. For general designs, we characterize attainment of a leave-one-out envelope. For existing real equiangular tight frames, flat row query energy characterizes when every nonzero residual response maximizes at two deletions. At three deletions, we give the sharp risk and complete maximizing space for isotropic queries, using unequal triangle weights. The balanced geometry yields a same-sample unbiased ridge--Horvitz--Thompson mixture with lower sharp risk and an exact mean-share improvement boundary. Under full recalibration after feature changes, we prove quadratic regret from searching the complete old maximizing space and a query-uniform bound on the mixture's risk gain. The strongest sector inequalities have exact computer-assisted proofs.
The Advantages of Fresh Sketching for Ridge Regression
Over the past 25 years, sketching and sampling have become widely used tools for accelerating large-scale regression. In iterative randomized solvers, a basic design choice is whether to the same sketch or draw randomness at every step. For (under-constrained) iterative ridge regression with column sampling, whether fresh sketches offer provable advantages has remained open: Fresh sketching lets us analyze error only along the current residual solution, rather than uniformly over the entire Gram matrix. This directional view yields sharper convergence guarantees for leverage score and ridge leverage score sampling and, more importantly, leads to residual-aware sampling rules. By minimizing the variance of the relevant sketched matrix-vector product, we derive an oracle distribution and practical approximations to the oracle distribution, including a mixture sampling distribution with (somewhat weaker) convergence guarantees. Experiments on synthetic and real data, including ridge probes on Qwen2.5 representations, support our theory, showing substantially faster convergence.
Structured Features Overfit Where Random Features Grok
Xu, Vardi and Safran (ICML 2026) prove that over-parameterized ridge regression over an unstructured random Gaussian feature map groks, with the delay between memorization and generalization growing as in the weight decay. We show that on a structured feature map the same delay does not appear. For a band-limited Fourier feature map over carrying a single-character target that lies inside the expressible class, enlarging the band at fixed positive weight decay drives peak held-out accuracy monotonically from to , with no memorize-then-generalize regime anywhere along the sweep. The degradation is not an interpolation effect. It sets in at capacity ratio , far below the interpolation threshold, on separate grounds from the exact null space that appears above it. What does have a sharp boundary is the active support. Holding the nominal dimension fixed and masking the band back to active modes restores held-out accuracy of with zero variance across seeds, while the full -mode band collapses to . The number of active modes acts through the teacher-weighted spectrum of the empirical Gram matrix and not through the capacity ratio, which makes this a statement about feature geometry and not a restatement of double descent.
A Simple Approximation to the Distribution of the Ridge Regression Estimator
We present a simple Gaussian approximation to the finite-sample distribution of the classical ridge regression estimator. Our approximation captures the fact that, in finite samples, the ridge regression estimator trades off bias and variance to reduce estimation and prediction error. Our approximation is based on nonstandard asymptotics where we let the estimator's regularization parameter grow proportionally to the sample size; and we treat the population regression coefficients as \emph{local} to the reference vector that defines the estimator's direction of shrinkage. In contrast to other asymptotic approximations in the literature, we allow for general forms of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation in the data generating process (at the cost of considering a low-dimensional model where the number of covariates is not allowed to grow with the sample size). We use our simple Gaussian approximation to propose two new strategies to select the regularization parameter for the ridge regression estimator. The suggested strategies select the regularization parameter to minimize either average or worst-case excess prediction risk, where risk is computed using our suggested Gaussian approximation.
Beyond Negative-Ridge Endpoints: Mixed-Sign Spectral Regularization via Negative-Shifted Gradient Descent
In overparameterized linear regression, many weak spectral directions act like a ridge penalty on the signal-bearing spectrum; negative ridge is the natural correction, pushing filters above one. The stable negative-ridge endpoint, however, is structurally limited: its pole must stay below the smallest nonzero empirical eigenvalue, and it anti-shrinks smaller eigenvalues more than larger ones. Early-stopped negative-shifted gradient descent escapes this constraint. Its filter is smooth at the would-be pole and mixed-sign-capable: above-ridgeless directions form a leading prefix, with lower directions shrunk or exposure-controlled while stopping sets the crossover. In a Gaussian spike-plus-flat model we discover a Marchenko-Pastur barrier: the shift that cancels the implicit penalty lies a bulk width above the smallest empirical eigenvalue, and the stopped path improves on every admissible endpoint by a polynomial factor in risk under explicit conditions. Our main theorem permits a general high-effective-rank tail: its trace sets the implicit floor, its squared spectrum controls exposure, and the floor-critical path recovers all head scales at once, beyond positive shrinkage and, once scales separate, every uniform rescaling of ridgeless. Handling the noncontractive shifted dynamics is the central technical challenge; localized Duhamel integrals control them. A finite-grid hold-out inequality transfers the separations to the validation-selected algorithm.
Regularized Machine Learning for System Identification of Ship Free-Running Manoeuvres from CFD-Based Synthetic Data: A Comparative Study
This study investigates supervised machine learning techniques for identifying ship hydrodynamic coefficients from CFD-generated data from free-running simulations. Specifically, ordinary least squares and regularized regression methods are applied to Abkowitz-type manoeuvring models. Training and validation datasets are derived from URANS simulations of zig-zag and turning circle manoeuvres, which are validated against experimental benchmark data. The analysis evaluates the effects of coefficient set size, minimum training length required for predictive model training, and manoeuvre combinations on model performance. Results demonstrate the suitability of large-angle zig-zag manoeuvres for hydrodynamic system identification, provided that multicollinearity is addressed through appropriate coefficient selection, regression models, or input data variability. Larger coefficient sets offer greater model flexibility for variable conditions but are more prone to multicollinearity. Regularized regression techniques effectively mitigate multicollinearity and notably enhance prediction accuracy, as does incorporating more diverse manoeuvring data. Among tested models, Ridge regression provided the best compromise between computational efficiency and prediction accuracy.
IR3DE: A Linear Router for Large Language Models
Foundational Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate proficiency on a wide range of general tasks, and achieve remarkable results on various specialized tasks via domain-expert LLMs. With the ever-growing list of available LLMs, inference routers are being proposed to select the most appropriate LLM for each prompt. However, existing routing methods either optimize cost across weak-to-strong generalist LLMs or require substantial training to support domain-expertise routing. In this paper, we propose IR3DE, a Ridge Regression-based Router for Domain Experts that provides cheap and fast routing decisions for each prompt. We evaluate IR3DE in two Causal Language Modeling (CLM) settings where the tasks are next-token prediction for all domains, and one reasoning setting where each domain has its own distinct reasoning task. Despite being a linear router, IR3DE achieves performance comparable to the other baselines in both CLM settings, and surpassing them in the reasoning setting, with a normalized performance of 98.4%. Moreover, IR3DE enables the addition or removal of new domain experts without requiring the router to be retrained from scratch, allowing a dynamic set of LLMs to be served with minimal disruption to the router itself. Our code is available at: github.com/gensyn-ai/IR3DE.
When New Generators Arrive: Lifelong Machine-Generated Text Attribution via Ridge Feature Transfer
Machine-generated text (MGT) attribution aims to identify the specific generator responsible for a given text, thereby providing fine-grained evidence for model accountability and misuse investigation. As new large language models continue to emerge, attribution models must continuously incorporate new generators while preserving their ability to recognize previously seen ones. Prior works have shown that this lifelong MGT attribution setting is challenging, and existing methods often struggle to achieve a stable balance between adapting to new classes and retaining old ones. To address this issue, we propose RidgeFT, a lightweight analytic update framework that does not rely on exemplar replay. RidgeFT trains a task-aware encoder on the initial generator set, stores compact class-wise sufficient statistics when each generator class is first observed, and then freezes the encoder for replay-free closed-form updates. It then suppresses generator-irrelevant variation through covariance calibration, improves representation capacity with fixed random features, and updates new classes through closed-form ridge regression based on class-level sufficient statistics. Across multi-topic evaluations with varying initial generator setups, RidgeFT consistently outperforms baselines. It achieves the best macro-F1 across domains, backbones, and incremental protocols, while also improving both old-class retention and new-class adaptation. These results suggest that feature-stable analytic updates provide a simple yet effective approach to lifelong MGT attribution.
GRKV: Global Regression for Training-Free KV Cache Compression in Long-Context LLMs
Large language models (LLMs) with extended context lengths rely on the key-value (KV) cache to support attention over prior tokens. However, maintaining the KV cache incurs substantial memory overhead, motivating KV-cache compression methods that enforce a fixed budget through eviction and merging. Modern eviction methods increasingly adopt span-based retention because preserving contiguous spans is empirically effective and better preserves semantic coherence. Yet, when combined with post-eviction merging, span-based retention concentrates merges onto a small set of span-boundary carrier tokens, producing a highly imbalanced merge pattern that exacerbates over-merging and increases information loss. To address this imbalance, we propose GRKV (Global Regression for KV Cache), a training-free KV-cache merging method that directly minimizes the discrepancy between compressed-cache and full-cache attention outputs. GRKV uses ridge-regression-based merge steps to distribute information from evicted tokens across retained tokens, while regularizing the updates to prevent over-smoothing. Across the LongBench and RULER long-context benchmarks, GRKV is the only merging method that improves overall performance with minimal overhead. Our code is available at https://github.com/pjunjie/GRKV.
Ridge Regression from Poisson Resetting: A Renewal Perspective on Spectral Regularization
We connect stochastic resetting from non-equilibrium statistical physics with ridge regularization in statistical learning. For linear gradient flow, resetting to the origin at rate produces stationary mean , exactly the ridge estimator with penalty . This uses the known Laplace-transform relationship between ridge regression and exponential-time averaging of gradient flow, with the exponential time now interpreted as the stationary age associated with Poisson resetting. We then extend this identity to general renewal reset laws: the exponential reset time distribution is the unique renewal law whose stationary mean reproduces scalar ridge in every eigendirection as an exact filter identity for every positive curvature, while non-exponential renewal laws generate alternative spectral filters. At the fluctuation level, we study a separate additive Ornstein-Uhlenbeck extension with constant diffusion, interpreted as a stylized SGD approximation. In this setting, the equality holds only at the level of the mean, since the reset process has a nonzero stationary covariance from accumulated OU noise and reset-timing variance, whereas deterministic ridge is a fixed estimator with the same center. Stylized experiments compare the deterministic renewal-induced filters directly and illustrate when filters induced by non-exponential reset-time laws can differ predictively from ridge. The results for the stationary mean and the induced spectral filters are established for continuous-time gradient flow with isotropic resetting on quadratic objectives; the covariance and risk formulas additionally assume additive noise with state-independent covariance.
Optimal ridge regularization revisited
We consider -regularized linear (ridge) regression over a finite data sample with bounded covariance and linear prediction targets with additive isotropic noise of finite variance. We present an iterative procedure to compute the optimal regularization strength numerically from the generative parameters in the fixed- setting and prove its convergence at limited noise levels. Our experimental evaluation over synthetic data shows that the proposed procedure combined with sample-based parameter estimates attains near-optimal random- generalization across a wide range of sample sizes, aspect ratios, and noise levels, at an added computational cost equivalent to one preliminary ridge regression in the underparameterized regime and two in the overparameterized case.
Conditional KRR: Injecting Unpenalized Features into Kernel Methods with Applications to Kernel Thresholding
Conditionally positive definite (CPD) kernels are defined with respect to a function class . It is well known that such a kernel is associated with its native space (defined analogously to an RKHS), which in turn gives rise to a learning method -- called conditional kernel ridge regression (conditional KRR) due to its analogy with KRR -- where the estimated regression function is penalized by the square of its native space norm. This method is of interest because it can be viewed as classical linear regression, with features specified by , followed by the application of standard KRR to the residual (unexplained) component of the target variable. Methods of this type have recently attracted increasing attention. We study the statistical properties of this method by reducing its behavior to that of KRR with another fixed kernel, called the residual kernel. Our main theoretical result shows that such a reduction is indeed possible, at the cost of an additional term in the expected test risk, bounded by , where is the sample size and the hidden constant depends on the class and the input distribution. This reduction enables us to analyze conditional KRR in the case where is positive definite and is given by the first principal eigenfunctions in the Mercer decomposition of . We also consider the setting where consists of random features from a random feature representation of . It turns out that these two settings are closely related. Both our theoretical analysis and experiments confirm that conditional KRR outperforms standard KRR in these cases whenever the -component of the regression function is more pronounced than the residual part.
Canonical Regularisation of Wide Feature-Learning Neural Networks
Wide neural networks in the feature-learning regime drive modern deep learning, and yet they remain far less studied than their kernel-regime counterparts. We consider a critical yet under-explored difference between these two regimes: the regulariser and prior implied by gradient flow training. This canonical regularisation property is well-studied in kernel regime networks -- of all the infinite global minima, gradient flow selects exactly the vanishing ridge solution -- and underpins the celebrated NN-GP correspondence, precisely allowing the modelling of noise during training. However, we prove ridge regularisation biases gradient flow in feature-learning regime networks, even in the infinitesimal limit of vanishing regularisation. Over training, ridge distorts the inductive bias of the network, with a particular damage done to pretrained networks where the implicit prior is informative. We resolve this by axiomatising the canonical regulariser as a regime-agnostic function-space energy and lift, which uniquely identifies ridge in the kernel regime, and crucially generalises to the feature-learning regime. By studying the Riemannian geometry of feature-learning networks, we derive geodesic ridge from our framework, generalising ridge to the feature-learning regime. Correspondingly, we prove the canonical function-space prior is a Riemannian Gibbs Process, generalising the more familiar Gaussian Process. As a practical contribution, we propose arc ridge as a minimax-robust, scalable surrogate to geodesic ridge, revealing a deep relationship between early stopping and canonical regularisation across learning regimes. Finally, we demonstrate the consequences of our theory empirically on both image processing and NLP transfer-learning problems.
Large Dimensional Kernel Ridge Regression: Extending to Product Kernels
Recent studies have reported and in large dimensional kernel ridge regression (KRR). However, these findings are predominantly derived under restrictive settings, such as inner product kernels on sphere or strong eigenfunction assumptions like hypercontractivity. Whether such behaviors hold for other kernels remains an open question. In this paper, we establish a broad, new family of large dimensional kernels and derive the corresponding convergence rates of the generalization error. As a result, we recover key phenomena previously associated with inner product kernels on sphere, including: the when the source condition ; the when ; a in the convergence rate and a with respect to the sample size .
Reframing preprocessing selection as model-internal calibration in near-infrared spectroscopy: A large-scale benchmark of operator-adaptive PLS and Ridge models
Preprocessing screening is often the most expensive part of a near-infrared spectroscopy calibration workflow. It works because smoothing, derivatives, detrending and related filters change the spectral directions seen by partial least squares (PLS) or Ridge regression, but a full external search repeatedly refits nearly the same linear model. This paper studies the case where that search can be collapsed into one calibration step. For a strict linear preprocessing operator A acting on row spectra as XA^T, the transformed PLS cross-covariance satisfies (XA^T)^T Y = A X^T Y, and Ridge regression depends on the operator-induced kernel X A^T A X^T. These identities let a finite operator bank be screened inside the model while retaining original-wavelength coefficients, and the same identity extends to cheaply evaluated linear operator chains. Sample-adaptive or fitted corrections such as SNV, MSC, EMSC and ASLS are not strict linear; we prove the boundary and keep them as fold-local branches. The cohort has 61 regression and 17 classification rows, with a strict paired regression denominator of N=32 for the eight paper variants. There, AOM-PLS reaches median RMSEP ratios of 0.991/0.990 (simple) and 0.985/1.002 (best) against PLS-default/PLS-HPO, and AOM-Ridge reaches 0.974/0.984 (simple) and 0.918/0.966 (best) against Ridge-default/Ridge-HPO. The operator-adaptive classifier AOM-PLS-DA improves balanced accuracy by a median 0.159 on N=13 datasets (12/13 wins). The practical result is the runtime gap: PLS-HPO takes a median 710.81 s per run, whereas AOM-PLS takes 1.18-1.63 s -- 436 to 602 times less PLS fitting time. Linear operator-adaptive calibration thus gives prediction quality comparable to exhaustive preprocessing screening, with orders-of-magnitude less fitting time for PLS.
Transformers Can Implement Preconditioned Richardson Iteration for In-Context Gaussian Kernel Regression
Mechanistic accounts of in-context learning (ICL) have identified iterative algorithms for linear regression and related linear prediction tasks, often using linear or ReLU attention variants. For nonlinear ICL, prior work has related softmax and kernelized attention to functional-gradient-type dynamics, but it remains unclear whether a standard transformer with softmax attention can implement a convergent solver with an end-to-end prediction-error guarantee. In this paper, we study in-context kernel ridge regression (KRR) with Gaussian kernels and show that a standard softmax-attention transformer can approximate the KRR predictor during its forward pass by implementing preconditioned Richardson iteration on the associated kernel linear system. Under bounded-data assumptions, we construct a single-head transformer with blocks and MLP width that achieves -accurate prediction for prompts of length . Our construction reveals a functional decomposition within the transformer architecture: softmax attention produces a row-normalized Gaussian-kernel operator needed for cross-token interactions, while ReLU MLP layers act locally to approximate the intra-token scalar arithmetic required by the update. Empirically, we train GPT-2-style transformers on Gaussian-process regression tasks to further test the preconditioned Richardson interpretation. Through linear probing, we compare the transformer's layer-wise predictions with the step-wise outputs of classical KRR solvers and find that its error profiles align most consistently with preconditioned Richardson iteration. Ablation studies further support this interpretation. Together, our theory and experiments identify preconditioned Richardson iteration as a concrete mechanism that softmax-attention transformers can realize for nonlinear in-context Gaussian-kernel regression.
Differentiable Kernel Ridge Regression for Deep Learning Pipelines
Deep neural networks dominate modern machine learning, while alternative function approximators remain comparatively underexplored at scale. In this work, we revisit kernel methods as drop-in components for standard deep learning pipelines. We introduce \emph{Sparse Kernels} (SKs), a differentiable, localized, and lazy variant of kernel ridge regression (KRR) that defers training to inference time and reduces to the solution of small local systems. We integrate SKs into PyTorch as modular layers that preserve end-to-end trainability, and we show that they expose three distinct sets of parameters -- feature representations, target values, and evaluation points -- each of which can be fixed or learned. This decomposition broadens the design space available to practitioners, enabling, in particular, training-free transfer, nonlinear probing, and hybrid kernel-neural models. Across convolutional networks, vision transformers, and reinforcement learning, SK-based modules serve two complementary roles: in some settings, they match the performance of trained neural readouts with substantially less training; in others, they augment existing models and improve their performance when used as additional components. Our results suggest that kernel methods, once made scalable and differentiable, can be readily integrated with deep learning rather than treated as a separate paradigm.
Pack only the essentials: Adaptive dictionary learning for kernel ridge regression
One of the major limits of kernel ridge regression (KRR) is that storing and manipulating the kernel matrix K_n for n samples requires O(n^2) space, which rapidly becomes unfeasible for large n. Nystrom approximations reduce the space complexity to O(nm) by sampling m columns from K_n. Uniform sampling preserves KRR accuracy (up to epsilon) only when m is proportional to the maximum degree of freedom of K_n, which may require O(n) columns for datasets with high coherence. Sampling columns according to their ridge leverage scores (RLS) gives accurate Nystrom approximations with m proportional to the effective dimension, but computing exact RLS also requires O(n^2) space. (Calandriello et al. 2016) propose INK-Estimate, an algorithm that processes the dataset incrementally and updates RLS, effective dimension, and Nystrom approximations on-the-fly. Its space complexity scales with the effective dimension but introduces a dependency on the largest eigenvalue of K_n, which in the worst case is O(n). In this paper we introduce SQUEAK, a new algorithm that builds on INK-Estimate but uses unnormalized RLS. As a consequence, the algorithm is simpler, does not need to estimate the effective dimension for normalization, and achieves a space complexity that is only a constant factor worse than exact RLS sampling.
Analysis of Nystrom method with sequential ridge leverage scores
Large-scale kernel ridge regression (KRR) is limited by the need to store a large kernel matrix K_t. To avoid storing the entire matrix K_t, Nystrom methods subsample a subset of columns of the kernel matrix, and efficiently find an approximate KRR solution on the reconstructed matrix. The chosen subsampling distribution in turn affects the statistical and computational tradeoffs. For KRR problems, recent works show that a sampling distribution proportional to the ridge leverage scores (RLSs) provides strong reconstruction guarantees for the approximation. While exact RLSs are as difficult to compute as a KRR solution, we may be able to approximate them well enough. In this paper, we study KRR problems in a sequential setting and introduce the INK-ESTIMATE algorithm, that incrementally computes the RLSs estimates. INK-ESTIMATE maintains a small sketch of K_t, that at each step is used to compute an intermediate estimate of the RLSs. First, our sketch update does not require access to previously seen columns, and therefore a single pass over the kernel matrix is sufficient. Second, the algorithm requires a fixed, small space budget to run dependent only on the effective dimension of the kernel matrix. Finally, our sketch provides strong approximation guarantees on the distance between the true kernel matrix and its approximation, and on the statistical risk of the approximate KRR solution at any time, because all our guarantees hold at any intermediate step.
To Grok Grokking: Provable Grokking in Ridge Regression
We study grokking, the onset of generalization long after overfitting, in a classical ridge regression setting. We prove end-to-end grokking results for learning over-parameterized linear regression models using gradient descent with weight decay. Specifically, we prove that the following stages occur: (i) the model overfits the training data early during training; (ii) poor generalization persists long after overfitting has manifested; and (iii) the generalization error eventually becomes arbitrarily small. Moreover, we show, both theoretically and empirically, that grokking can be amplified or eliminated in a principled manner through proper hyperparameter tuning. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first rigorous quantitative bounds on the generalization delay (which we refer to as the "grokking time") in terms of training hyperparameters. Lastly, going beyond the linear setting, we empirically demonstrate that our quantitative bounds also capture the behavior of grokking on non-linear neural networks. Our results suggest that grokking is not an inherent failure mode of deep learning, but rather a consequence of specific training conditions, and thus does not require fundamental changes to the model architecture or learning algorithm to avoid.
On Regularization via Early Stopping for Least Squares Regression
A fundamental problem in machine learning is understanding the effect of early stopping on the parameters obtained and the generalization capabilities of the model. Even for linear models, the effect is not fully understood for arbitrary learning rates and data. In this paper, we analyze the dynamics of discrete full batch gradient descent for linear regression. With minimal distributional assumptions, we characterize the trajectory of the parameters and the expected excess risk. Using this characterization, we show that when training with any learning rate schedule and finite time horizon, the early stopped solution is equivalent to the minimum norm solution for a generalized ridge regression problem. We also prove that early stopping is beneficial for generic data with arbitrary spectrum and for a wide variety of learning rate schedules. We provide an estimate for the optimal stopping time and empirically demonstrate the accuracy of our estimate.