Soil Moisture Estimation

Estimating temporal soil-loss change is challenging when physically meaningful input factors are noisy or corrupted, particularly because substantial changes are rare relative to the large number of locations exhibiting little change. We study this problem through the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and introduce PhyRestore, a physics-structured latent-factor restoration framework. Rather than directly predicting soil-loss change or correcting a degraded physical estimate, PhyRestore restores corrupted physical factors and reconstructs temporal change through the known physical relationship. We evaluate PhyRestore in a watershed-scale bitemporal raster setting under isolated and simultaneous corruption of rainfall erosivity and cover management, comparing it with the degraded RUSLE estimate and Direct RF, XGBoost, MLP, and CNN models. Factor restoration improves high-magnitude recovery when the corrupted factors remain identifiable, but its advantage weakens under joint corruption, sparse positive extremes, and factor values outside the training support.

A single SM utilization percentage can make an LLM inference workload look compute-saturated while hiding how much useful work is being done. The problem is not that the counter is wrong, but that it collapses several different mechanisms into one number. This is most severe during decode, where each request contributes only one new token and dense projection GEMMs become small-row matrix multiplications. On Hopper, the bfloat16 GMMA path executes these operations in fixed 64-row matrix fragments, so small-batch decode can fill only a small fraction of each fragment with real token rows. In this paper, we profile vLLM with FlashAttention-3 and cuBLASLt on an H100 NVL across cold prefill, warm prefill, and decode, sweeping sequence length and batch size. We replace the usual single utilization number with eight counter-validated views derived from raw Nsight Compute reports, each pinned to an NCU counter or explicit formula. Together, these views map utilization gaps to concrete mechanisms - fragment fill, occupancy limits, stall signatures, wave quantization, and kernel selection - across four production models and six per-layer kernel roles.

Scientific machine learning often relies on proxy targets computed from known domain factors when direct observations are limited. When those same factors are used as model inputs, however, high predictive accuracy may reflect reconstruction of the proxy-generating equation rather than robustness to degraded factor information. We study this problem in RUSLE-derived soil-loss proxy prediction under controlled degradation of the soil-erodibility factor $K$. We introduce a diagnostic framework that combines degraded-formula references, classical tree-based baselines, matched direct and formula-feature predictors, contextual ablations, tail-error analysis, and degradation robustness scoring. We then propose RASPL, a formula-preserving residual framework that retains the degraded formula estimate as the prediction anchor and learns an adaptively gated contextual correction. RASPL substantially outperforms matched direct prediction and provides stronger degradation and tail robustness than treating the formula estimate as an ordinary input feature. Within RASPL, a compact statistical encoder achieves the highest macro-averaged $R^2$ and lowest computational cost, whereas a convolutional encoder achieves the strongest degradation robustness and lowest Tail95 mean absolute error (MAE). These results establish formula preservation as the central design principle for robust learning from factor-derived proxy targets.

Visible and near-infrared (vis-NIR) and mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopy enable rapid, cost-effective prediction of soil properties. Yet, translating high-dimensional, highly collinear spectra into accurate soil property predictions remains challenging, particularly when employing machine learning. We systematically investigated regression models and dimensionality reduction approaches for spectroscopic modeling across 85 regression tasks from open benchmark datasets in pedometrics spanning field-scale digital soil mapping and a global soil spectral library. We compared an in-context learning tabular foundation model (TabPFN), a convolutional neural network (CNN), rule-based regression (Cubist), Random Forest, and partial least squares regression (PLSR) using full spectra as well as features derived from principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares (PLS) latent variables. TabPFN consistently delivered the best overall performance across scales, including large spectral library tasks with tens of thousands of soil samples. Notably, TabPFN applied directly to full spectra already surpassed all classical baselines, showing that explicit dimensionality reduction is not strictly required for strong performance. Further improvements were achieved through PLS, which proved to be an effective dimensionality reduction strategy for all models. Combining PLS latent variables with TabPFN yielded the best predictions overall. Our findings provide evidence-based guidance for spectroscopic calibration model selection across operational scales, demonstrating that the long-standing advantages of PLSR and modern tabular foundation models complement each other in chemometrics.

The Mass-Conserving Perceptron (MCP) establishes a modeling paradigm in which conceptual hydrologic models can be reformulated as physically constrained, conceptually interpretable neural networks. Here, we develop a snow-water MCP network framework and evaluate it across 513 CAMELS-US basins. We first recast a coupled two-state SOIL-MCP and SNOWMCP conceptual model as a mass-conserving neural network and show that the hydrologic-model and neural-network formulations achieve comparable predictive performance. We then examine cross-node state-information sharing within two-state HYDROMCP architectures and evaluate broader single-layer networks constructed from three types of interpretable MCP units with one to five states. Across CONUS, the median KGEss increases from 0.82 for one-state networks to 0.89 for two-state networks and 0.90 for five-state networks, suggesting diminishing aggregate gains beyond two states. Basin-specific MCP and LSTM selection yields the same median KGEss of 0.90, while the selected MCP networks use fewer parameters on average. Complementary AIC- and KGE-based selection identifies compact, basin-specific directed-graph representations that balance predictive accuracy and model complexity. These analyses provide an empirical basis for identifying the numbers, types, and interactions of states needed for hydrologic representation. Future studies should test joint training against multiple hydrologic responses, such as streamflow, snow water equivalent, and groundwater storage.

Accurate estimation of soil microplastics and organic matter is essential to assess ecosystem health and support sustainable land use. This study presents a graph-based deep learning approach using Graph Attention Networks (GATs) to model spatial dependencies among 91 georeferenced soil samples. By incorporating spatial coordinates, soil properties, and land use data, a two-layer GAT architecture was developed to capture local interactions. The final model showed strong performance, achieving RMSEs of 625.06 ($R^2 = 0.87$) for microplastics and 0.43 ($R^2 = 0.91$) for organic matter. However, cross-validation results revealed limited generalization, probably due to the small sample size and sparse graph structure. These findings demonstrate the potential of GATs for spatial soil prediction and underscore the need for dense datasets and improved graph connectivity.

Near-Infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has emerged as a promising alternative to traditional soil analysis methods, offering advantages such as speed, low cost, and non-destructive testing. This work proposes a machine learning (ML) approach to calibrate predictive models for carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content in Oxisols and Inceptisols, utilizing NIR spectral data acquired with a portable MyNIR device. Various preprocessing methods were evaluated, with the most effective being the Savitzky-Golay (SG) filter and a robust outlier removal method based on the Nonlinear Iterative Partial Least Squares (NIPALS) algorithm coupled with a Huber loss function. Multiple validation strategies were compared, including 10-fold cross-validation, leave-one-out, and holdout via the Kennard-Stone method, followed by standardization. Stacking ensemble learning models were employed, using Partial Least Squares (PLS), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Ridge as base models, with linear regression as the meta-model. The models were evaluated using R2, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Ratio of Performance Deviation (RPD) metrics. The performance gap between soil types suggests the influence of pedological characteristics. Furthermore, the models achieved an RPD > 2.0 with low overfitting, validating the potential of this approach for rapid C and N quantification. This study contributes to the optimization of sustainable agricultural practices, aligning with the demand for efficient and environmentally friendly analytical methods. The developed technique enables faster decision-making for producers and consultants based on organic matter content, fertility indicators, and nutrient availability.

Field-scale retrieval of surface soil moisture (SM), leaf area index (LAI), and plant height (PH) is essential for precision agriculture, yet it remains an ill-posed inverse problem. Concurrent variations in soil moisture and canopy density generate substantial ambiguities in radar backscatter and spectral responses, which reduces the effectiveness of traditional feedforward regression models in heterogeneous smallholder cropping systems. This study presents the Iterative Energy-Based Transformer (iEBT) for the joint retrieval of coupled soil-canopy states from Sentinel-1 C-band SAR and Sentinel-2 multispectral time series. Instead of direct regression, iEBT embeds multi-modal predictors within a shared sequence, produces an initial state estimate, and iteratively updates the target [SM, LAI, PH] vector through normalized gradient descent to minimize a learned scalar compatibility energy function. Using 700 quality-controlled field measurements from Varanasi, India, iEBT achieved the highest learned-model performance on the random test split, with a four-seed mean R^2 of 0.854 \pm 0.012 (R_SM^2 = 0.841, R_LAI^2 = 0.905, R_PH^2 = 0.821). WCM and PROSAIL were retained as physically interpretable SAR and optical reference models for comparison. Modality ablations confirmed that Sentinel-1 drives SM retrieval, while Sentinel-2 dominates LAI, whereas PH relies on combined structural-phenological signatures. Crucially, the model's terminal energy functions as an uncalibrated post-retrieval quality diagnostic; screening the 10% highest-energy samples markedly reduced target level root-mean-square errors. While leave-one-campaign-out validation highlights persistent cross-season domain shift challenges due to localized management variations, compatibility-guided multimodal fusion offers a structured self-diagnostic path toward reliable biophysical parameter estimation

Crop recommendation systems in precision agriculture have long suffered from a fundamental modality gap: visual soil characterization and chemical nutrient profiling are typically treated as independent inference problems, with fusion often reduced to late-stage feature concatenation. AgroSense2.0 addresses this limitation through three architectural advances. First, we introduce continental-scale geospatial integration via a seven-band soil raster (\texttt{india_soil_7bands.tif}) spanning India, encoding Nitrogen, pH, SOC, Clay, Sand, Silt, and Bulk Density as $32\times32$ spatial patches, a modality entirely absent from prior work. Second, we replace naive feature concatenation with a cross-modal Transformer fusion module, where tabular nutrient features attend over image representations via multi-head attention, enabling richer inter-modal dependency modeling than shallow fusion. Third, we adopt a multi-task objective jointly optimizing soil classification and crop recommendation through a shared backbone, improving generalization via complementary cross-task signal. To enhance interpretability, we apply TreeSHAP to the tabular branch, revealing crop-conditioned nutrient sensitivity: humidity and rainfall emerge as the most influential features globally, while crop-specific profiles diverge meaningfully rainfall dominates rice, nitrogen and potassium dominate maize, and humidity and nitrogen dominate coffee. These explanations provide transparency into model decisions and surface both agronomically consistent patterns and dataset-specific divergences worth further study. Together, these contributions establish AgroSense2.0 as a more principled, interpretable, and geospatially grounded framework for precision agriculture.

Accurate soil moisture estimation in semi-arid agricultural regions requires integrating remote sensing and meteorological information while accounting for the delayed response of soil moisture to atmospheric forcing. This study introduces a Cross-Correlation Function (CCF) methodology to determine optimal temporal lags (0-30 days) between meteorological variables and soil moisture, as well as inter-depth lags (0-15 days) describing vertical moisture propagation from the surface (10 cm) to deeper layers (20-50 cm). The approach was validated across seven agricultural plots in southeastern Spain. Three deep learning architectures, each targeting a distinct prediction granularity, were evaluated under five feature configurations ranging from satellite-only to full satellite-meteorology-depth fusion: a CNN for per-pixel estimation within each plot, an LSTM for frame-level (daily plot-mean) prediction, and a CNN-LSTM hybrid operating on sliding windows with pooled multi-patch training. Models were assessed on held-out data to measure genuine generalisation. Meteorological variables improved performance over the satellite-only baseline, while subsurface depth information proved decisive across all architectures. The per-pixel CNN achieved the strongest single-patch result (R^2 = 0.877, RMSE = 2.28), with a seven-patch average R^2 of 0.535, representing an improvement of +1.00 over the satellite-only baseline. The pooled CNN-LSTM hybrid obtained the highest overall performance (R^2 = 0.930, CVRMSE = 8.0%). These results demonstrate that explicitly modelling atmospheric and vertical subsurface delays substantially improves soil moisture estimation for precision agriculture.

Soil microorganisms control organic matter cycling and largely determine how soil systems can cope with and mitigate climate change and environmental threats. Representing microbial dynamics in process-based soil models is therefore critical to predict carbon cycling in soils, albeit highly challenging to inform from data. One promising approach to improve their parametrisation is the integration of genomic data, yet modelling the complex and unknown relationship between genomes and the processes the microbes are driving is an unsolved problem. In this work, we present the first hybrid modeling framework for deriving biokinetic parameter values of a process-based soil organic matter turnover model from metagenome-inferred functional traits based on DNA sequencing data. Our model predicts biokinetic parameters of the process-based model from genomic trait data with a neural network and integrates constraints from ecological theory and literature to ensure realistic behavior, even of non-observed state variables. We evaluate our method on synthetic genomic trait datasets of varying complexity and on real data, showing that our approach improves performance over multiple baselines and learns the dynamics of unmeasurable components of the process-based model effectively, even for small training datasets.

Soil Moisture (SM) modelling constitutes a complex spatiotemporal learning problem characterised by nonlinear environmental interactions, heterogeneous data sources, and limited ground observations. Physics-based approaches, such as water balance models, rely on explicit hydrological equations and high-quality inputs, but their computational cost and scalability limitations restrict large-scale deployment. Data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) methods have emerged as flexible alternatives, enabling the extraction of empirical relationships between soil moisture and environmental variables with reduced modelling assumptions. This work presents a structured survey of AI-based models for soil moisture estimation and classification. Existing approaches are organized into five categories: (a) statistical time-series models, (b) geostatistical methods (c) classical machine learning (ML) models, (d) Deep Learning (DL) models and (e) Probabilistic/Bayesian methods. These models leverage historical soil moisture records, meteorological variables, vegetation indices, topography, soil characteristics, and geolocation data to perform regression or classification tasks.

Top-soil organic carbon (SOC) prediction is fundamental to agricultural sustainability, land use policy and fertilization planning. Existing approaches face two limitations: they pair hand-crafted covariates with classical ML or single-modal deep models that miss rich spectral and temporal information, and grid-based architectures ignore the irregular spatial structure of field measurements. We introduce SpTGNN, a multi-modal spatio-temporal graph neural network addressing both. SpTGNN represents soil measurements as nodes in a heterogeneous graph with three edge types (spatial proximity, spectral similarity, elevation), and applies relational graph attention to learn separate patterns per relation. A fine-tuned TerraMind encoder extracts node features from Sentinel-2, Sentinel-1 and DEM signals, combined with per-sample environmental covariates and learned positional and temporal embeddings. A sparse Mixture-of-Experts module fuses the four streams via top-$k$ routing. Uncertainty is captured by pairing heteroscedastic regression (aleatoric) with deep ensembles (epistemic), and a Moran's $I$ penalty regularizes spatial autocorrelation. We evaluate on a global SOC corpus split into three regional instances ($\sim$49k samples globally, Africa $\sim$26k, Europe $\sim$14k). Our 5-member deep ensemble reports $R^2=0.762$, RMSE $=3.51\pm0.48$ g/kg and MAPE $=22.9\%$ on the Africa test split, improving over a tabular XGBoost baseline; the best single checkpoint reaches validation $R^2=0.864$. Ablations confirm the heterogeneous graph, MoE fusion and fine-tuned backbone each contribute substantively, and the ensemble UQ stack achieves post-calibration ECE of $0.031$ (hybrid) and $0.026$ ($β$-NLL). To our knowledge, this is the first framework to unify foundation-model feature extraction, heterogeneous graph attention and decomposed uncertainty quantification for SOC estimation.

Swarm and field robotics face significant barriers to real-world validation due to the high cost and development time to deploy hardware. This paper introduces the Bionic Swarm,'' a novel system that lowers these barriers by abstracting away many of the tasks that are difficult to implement on robots but which do not contribute to the overall algorithm evaluation, giving these tasks to human users. These human users take directions from a smartphone web-app that takes measurements from Bluetooth-connected sensors and relays them to a centralized server. This server runs the swarm algorithm and directs actions to the human users. We evaluate this system through the experimental validation of a geotechnically-focused search algorithm named Score-Biased-Search, which functions by assigning a score'' to each location on a reconstructed map, then biases search patterns through areas of higher expected scores, and which exhibits superlinear map reconstruction relative to the number of search agents. After presenting simulation results for the algorithm, we then apply the algorithm on the Bionic Swarm platform to validate its function in a real-world, outdoor setting. This work demonstrates that this human-in-the-loop approach significantly lowers the barrier to entry for field and swarm robotics research.

Understanding soil is fundamental to agriculture, carbon cycling, and environmental sustainability, yet progress is limited by fragmented and heterogeneous datasets that constrain modeling to small-scale predictive settings rather than high-dimensional representation learning. We introduce LUCAS-MEGA, a large-scale multimodal dataset constructed through systematic data fusion of European soil-environment observations, with the LUCAS survey as its backbone. The fused dataset comprises over 70,000 samples and more than 1,000 features spanning physical, chemical, environmental, biological, and visual attributes, aggregated from 68 source datasets. To enable integration at scale, we develop SoilFuser, a multi-agent, human-in-the-loop data fusion pipeline that standardizes heterogeneous data formats and measurement protocols, resolves inconsistencies and invalid entries (e.g., unit inconsistencies, codebook mismatches, and erroneous values), incorporates natural language annotations, and harmonizes multimodal attributes and metadata into a unified, machine learning-ready feature space. The resulting dataset captures key characteristics of real-world soil observations, including multimodality, uneven feature coverage, and heterogeneous uncertainty. To demonstrate the usability of LUCAS-MEGA for data-driven modeling, we pretrain a multimodal tabular transformer (SoilFormer) using a self-supervised objective based on feature masking, achieving stable training, strong predictive performance, and representations that support uncertainty-aware prediction. We further show that the learned representations recover relationships consistent with established soil processes. LUCAS-MEGA is released with open access and is accompanied by composable, agent-friendly APIs that support structured querying and data-driven workflows.

According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (2025), the average annual cost of natural catastrophes increased from 70--80 billion USD between 1970 and 2000 to 180--200 billion USD between 2001 and 2020. Reports from organizations such as the IFOA and the WWF highlight the need for the insurance sector to adapt to this rapidly evolving context by developing medium- to long-term strategies that go beyond the one-year horizon of prudential regulations such as Solvency II. This paper introduces an artificial intelligence framework based on Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (Conditional GANs) to generate future spatio-temporal trajectories of climatic indices. The approach focuses on the Soil Wetness Index (SWI), a key indicator used in France to assess drought severity. Drought accounts for approximately 30% of the indemnities paid under the French natural catastrophe insurance scheme. The proposed model, SwiGAN, simulates plausible drought propagation patterns up to 2050 for a region of France particularly exposed to this hazard. By generating realistic sequences of SWI maps, SwiGAN provides insights into drought dynamics under climate change scenarios and supports the design of adaptive risk management and insurance strategies. The methodology is also generalizable to other climate-related perils and actuarial applications such as economic scenario generation.

Accurate interpretation of soil moisture patterns is critical for irrigation scheduling and crop management, yet existing approaches for soil moisture time-series analysis either rely on threshold-based rules or data-hungry machine learning or deep learning models that are limited in adaptability and interpretability. In this study, we propose SPADE (Soil moisture Pattern and Anomaly DEtection), which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first LLM-based framework specifically developed for soil moisture time-series analysis. Using GPT-4.1 and domain-informed prompts, SPADE performs zero-shot joint identification of wetting events and anomalies without task-specific annotation, training, or fine-tuning. By converting time-series observations into a textual representation, SPADE identifies wetting-event timing, estimates sensor-level moisture responses, detects and classifies multiple predefined anomaly types, and generates structured, human-readable reports. SPADE was evaluated using real-world soil moisture data collected from commercial and research farms encompassing four crop types across the United States. Compared with the evaluated training-free baselines, SPADE achieved higher anomaly recall and F1-score, strong precision and recall for wetting-event detection, and high accuracy in classifying the observed anomaly types. Its structured reports summarize event timing, anomaly type, concise explanations, and sensor-level moisture responses, supporting practical interpretation of soil moisture patterns. These outputs may support soil moisture review, anomaly screening, and relative comparison of wetting responses rather than direct irrigation prescription.