Surrogate Modeling

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Overview

Surrogate modeling studies how to approximate costly simulators or opaque predictors so they can be queried, optimized, or interpreted more efficiently. Common approaches include Gaussian processes and reduced-order models, neural operators and other deep networks, and hybrid or multi-fidelity methods that combine cheap simulations with a smaller number of accurate ones; active learning can select the most useful new evaluations. Applications range from PDE and climate emulation to engineering design, control, Bayesian optimization, and explanations of black-box models. A central challenge is balancing speed and average prediction accuracy with reliable uncertainty estimates, physical consistency, and performance on unseen regimes or decisions.

Latest papers

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229 papers27 papers in the last four weeks, up 13% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

  1. Multi-Fidelity Flow Matching: Cascaded Refinement of PDE Solutions

    May 15, 2026Sipeng Chen, Junliang Liu, Hewei Tang +1Surrogate ModelingConditional Flow Matching

    Department of Computer Science, Florida State University · Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Florida State University · Hildebrand Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin

  2. CTF4Nuclear: Common Task Framework for Nuclear Fission and Fusion Models

    May 15, 2026Stefano Riva, Carolina Introini, Antonio Cammi +13Surrogate ModelingScientific ML

    Autodesk Research, London, UK · Department of Energy, Nuclear Engineering Division, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy · Nuclear Science and Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 +10

  3. Watch your neighbors: Training statistically accurate chaotic systems with local phase space information

    May 14, 2026Joon-Hyuk Ko, Andrus Giraldo, Deok-Sun LeeSurrogate ModelingNonlinear System Identification

    Center for AI and Natural Sciences Korea Institute for Advanced Study Seoul, Korea 02455 · School of Computational Sciences Korea Institute for Advanced Study Seoul, Korea 02455

  4. StampFormer: A Physics-Guided Material-Geometry-Coupled Multimodal Model for Rapid Prediction of Physical Fields in Sheet Metal Stamping

    May 13, 2026Jiajie Luo, Mohamed Mohamed, Osama Hassan +8Neural Surrogate ModelingSurrogate Modeling

  5. Efficient Conditioning Why Pseudo Observation Batch Bayesian Optimization Works When It Does not

    May 12, 2026Kumbha Nagaswetha, Rabi PathakSurrogate ModelingBayesian Optimization

  6. Discovery of Interpretable Surrogates via Agentic AI: Application to Gravitational Waves

    May 11, 2026Tousif Islam, Digvijay Wadekar, Tejaswi Venumadhav +4Surrogate ModelingGravitational-Wave Astronomy

    Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of California Santa Barbara, Kohn Hall, Lagoon Rd, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA. · Center for Gravitational Physics, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA. · Department of Physics, University of California at Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA. +5

  7. Support-Proximity Augmented Diffusion Estimation for Offline Black-Box Optimization

    May 11, 2026Yonghan Yang, Ye Yuan, Zipeng Sun +5Surrogate ModelingSurrogate-Assisted Optimization

    MBZUAI - Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence · McGill University · Mila - Quebec AI Institute +1

  8. Multifidelity Gaussian process regression for solving nonlinear partial differential equations

    May 11, 2026Fatima-Zahrae El-Boukkouri, Josselin Garnier, Olivier RoustantSurrogate ModelingPDE Solving

    Institut de Mathématiques de Toulouse, Université de Toulouse, INSA, Toulouse, 31077, France · CMAP, CNRS, Ecole polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Palaiseau, 91120, France

  9. Physics-based Digital Twins for Integrated Thermal Energy Systems Using Active Learning

    May 7, 2026Umme Mahbuba Nabila, Paul Seurin, Linyu Lin +1Surrogate ModelingSparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics

    Department of Nuclear Engineering and Radiological Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, United States · Nuclear Science & Technology Division, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID 83415, United States · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, United States

  10. Elicitation Matters: How Prompts and Query Protocols Shape LLM Surrogates under Sparse Observations

    May 6, 2026Ge Lei, Samuel J. CooperSurrogate ModelingBayesian Optimization

    Dyson School of Design Engineering Imperial College London Exhibition Road, London SW7 2AZ

  11. Enabling Real-Time Training of a Wildfire-to-Smoke Map with Multilinear Operators

    May 5, 2026Zachary Morrow, Joseph Crockett, John D. Jakeman +1Surrogate ModelingWildfire Forecasting

    Sandia National Laboratories 1515 Eubank Blvd SE, Albuquerque, NM 87123

  12. Multi-Fidelity Emulation of Atmospheric Correction Coefficients with Physics-Guided Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks

    May 4, 2026Md Abdullah Al Mazid, Naphtali RisheSurrogate ModelingRemote Sensing

    Knight Foundation School of Computing and Information Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, USA

  13. Multi-fidelity surrogates for mechanics of composites: from co-kriging to multi-fidelity neural networks

    May 4, 2026Haizhou Wen, Elham Kiyani, Gang Li +3Surrogate ModelingSurrogate-Assisted Optimization

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634, USA · Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USA · Center for Composite Materials, University of Delaware, Newark, DL 19716, USA +4

  14. Generalizable Friction Coefficient Estimation via Material Embedding and Proxy Interaction Modeling

    Apr 27, 2026Zhendong Wang, Huamin WangSurrogate ModelingMaterials Property Prediction

    Style3D Research Hangzhou, China

  15. WISE-FM:Operation-Aware, Engineering-Informed Foundation Model for Multi-Task Well Design

    Apr 26, 2026Carine de Menezes Rebello, Anderson Rapello dos Santos, Idelfonso B. R. NogueiraSurrogate ModelingMulti-Task Learning

    Department of Chemical Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway · Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS), Wells/Well Engineering, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

  16. Predicting Wind Loads on Container Ships in Harbor Environments through Multi-Fidelity Modeling

    Apr 24, 2026Matilde Fiore, Andrea Bresciani, Miguel Alfonso Mendez +1Surrogate Modeling

    Environmental and Applied Fluid Dynamics Department, von Karman Institute for Fluid Dynamics, Waterloosesteenweg 72, Sint-Genesius-Rode, B-1640, Belgium · Aero-Thermo-Mechanics Laboratory, École Polytechnique de Bruxelles, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Av. Franklin Roosevelt 50, Brussels, 1050, Belgium · Aerospace Engineering Research Group, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Av. de la Universidad 30, Leganés, 28911, Spain

  17. Neural surrogates for crystal growth dynamics with variable supersaturation: explicit vs. implicit conditioning

    Apr 23, 2026Matteo Rigoni, Daniele Lanzoni, Francesco Montalenti +1Neural Surrogate ModelingConvolutional RNNs

    Dept. of Materials Science, University of Milano-Bicocca, 20125 Milano, Italy · Dept. of Physics, University of Genova, 16146 Genova, Italy

  18. Surrogate Functionals for Machine-Learned Orbital-Free Density Functional Theory

    Apr 22, 2026Roman Remme, Fred A. HamprechtSurrogate ModelingQuantum Chemistry

    Interdisciplinary Center for Scientific Computing (IWR), Heidelberg University

  19. Surrogate modeling for interpreting black-box LLMs in medical predictions

    Apr 22, 2026Changho Han, Songsoo Kim, Dong Won Kim +4Surrogate ModelingLLM Interpretability

    Medical Big Data Research Center, Seoul National University Medical Research Center, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea · Department of Biomedical Systems Informatics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea. · Laboratory for Computational Physiology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 +5

  20. The High Explosives and Affected Targets (HEAT) Dataset

    Apr 20, 2026Bryan Kaiser, Kyle Hickmann, Sharmistha Chakrabarti +6Surrogate ModelingSynthetic Benchmark Generation

    Los Alamos National Laboratory

  21. Towards a Foundation-Model Paradigm for Aerodynamic Prediction in Three-dimensional Design

    Apr 20, 2026Yunjia Yang, Babak Gholami, Caglar Gurbuz +2Surrogate ModelingTransformer

    Technical University of Munich, Garching, D-85748, Germany · BMW Group, Bremer Str. 6, Munich, D-80788, Germany

  22. Late Fusion Neural Operators for Extrapolation Across Parameter Space in Partial Differential Equations

    Apr 17, 2026Eva van Tegelen, Taniya Kapoor, George A. K. van Voorn +2Surrogate ModelingPDE Surrogate Modeling

    Artificial Intelligence Group, Wageningen University and Research, Netherlands · Mathematical and Statistical Methods, Wageningen University and Research, Netherlands

  23. Interpretable and Explainable Surrogate Modeling for Simulations: A State-of-the-Art Survey and Perspectives on Explainable AI for Decision-Making

    Apr 15, 2026Pramudita Satria Palar, Paul Saves, Muhammad Daffa Robani +6Surrogate ModelingExplainable Artificial Intelligence

    Faculty of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesha 10, Bandung, 15414, West Java, Indonesia. · IRIT, Université Toulouse Capitole, Toulouse, 31000,France. · AwanTunai, Urban Suites, 3 Hullet Road, Singapore, 229158, Singapore, Singapore. +2

  24. Parametric Interpolation of Dynamic Mode Decomposition for Predicting Nonlinear Systems

    Apr 13, 2026Ananda Chakrabarti, Haitham H. Saleh, Indranil Nayak +3Reduced-Order ModelingDynamic Mode Decomposition

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA · ElectroScience Laboratory, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43212, USA · SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford University, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA +1

  25. Limited Perfect Monotonical Surrogates constructed using low-cost recursive linkage discovery with guaranteed output

    Apr 13, 2026M. W. Przewozniczek, F. Chicano, R. Tinós +1Surrogate ModelingSurrogate-Assisted Optimization

    Wroclaw Univ. of Science and Techn. Wroclaw, Poland · ITIS Software, University of Málaga Málaga, Spain · University of São Paulo Ribeirão Preto, Brazil

  26. Lecture notes on Machine Learning applications for global fits

    Apr 8, 2026Jorge AldaSurrogate ModelingHigh-Energy Physics

    Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia “Galileo Galilei”, Università degli Studi di Padova and INFN Sezione Padova, via Marzolo 8 35129 Padova, Italy. · Centro de Astropartículas y Física de Altas Energías (CAPA), Pedro Cerbuna 12 50009 Zaragoza, Spain.

  27. Graph Neural ODE Digital Twins for Control-Oriented Reactor Thermal-Hydraulic Forecasting Under Partial Observability

    Apr 8, 2026Akzhol Almukhametov, Doyeong Lim, Rui Hu +1Surrogate ModelingDigital Twins

    Department of Nuclear Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA · Argonne National Laboratory, Nuclear Science and Engineering Division, USA

  28. GS-Surrogate: Deformable Gaussian Splatting for Parameter Space Exploration of Ensemble Simulations

    Apr 7, 2026Ziwei Li, Rumali Perera, Angus Forbes +5Scientific VisualizationSurrogate Modeling

    The Ohio State University · NVIDIA · Oak Ridge National Laboratory

  29. From Model-Based Screening to Data-Driven Surrogates: A Multi-Stage Workflow for Exploring Stochastic Agent-Based Models

    Apr 3, 2026Paul Saves, Matthieu Mastio, Nicolas Verstaevel +1Sensitivity AnalysisAgent-Based Modeling

    IRIT, Université Toulouse Capitole, Toulouse, France

  30. Variational LSTM with Augmented Inputs: Nonlinear Response History Metamodeling with Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty

    Apr 2, 2026Manisha Sapkota, Min Li, Bowei LiSurrogate ModelingUncertainty Propagation

    Department of Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering, Texas Tech University, 2500 Broadway St, Lubbock 79409, TX, USA · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 110 8th Street, Troy 12180, NY, USA · National Wind Institute, Texas Tech University, 1009 Canton Ave, Lubbock 79409, TX, USA