Surrogate Modeling

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21 papers in the last four weeks, up 200% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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  1. EC-EarthFlow: Probabilistic emulation of daily transient global climate model simulations with flow matching

    Oct 7, 2026Kirien Whan, Nikolaj T. Mücke, Karin van der WielClimate ModelingSurrogate Modeling

    KNMI, Utrechtseweg 297, De Bilt, 3731GA, The Netherlands · Scientific Computing, Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica, Science Park 123, Amsterdam, 1098XG, The Netherlands · Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands +1

  2. A perspective note on likelihood approximation and inference for complex simulation models using a chain of aggregated normalizing flows

    Oct 5, 2026Getachew K BefekaduSimulation-Based InferenceSurrogate Modeling

    DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL & COMPUTER ENGINEERING, COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING, PHYSICS, AND COMPUTING, THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY OF AMERICA, WASHINGTON, DC 20064, USA.

  3. A Response Theory Probe for Learned Stochastic AI Simulators, Tested on Lorenz-63

    Oct 5, 2026João Böger, Simon Driscoll, Niccolò Zagli +2Surrogate ModelingChaotic Dynamical Systems

    Department of Technology, Management and Economics Technical University of Denmark Kongens Lyngby, 2800, DK · Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics University of Cambridge Cambridge, CB3 0WA, UK · School of Computing and Mathematical Sciences University of Leicester Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK +1

  4. Technical Report on the Turba Fertilizer Machine Learning Stack in Morocco

    Oct 5, 2026Abdelghani Belgaid, Zakaria Mahmoud, Fahd Chibani +3Surrogate ModelingML Reproducibility

    Turba Open Lab

  5. AI Emulation of Stochastic Sudden Stratospheric Warming with Interpretable Latent Structure

    Oct 1, 2026C. Daniel Boscu, Daniel Hernandez, Fabio Alvarez Ventura +4Dynamical SystemsSurrogate Modeling

    Department of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, 60637, IL · Data Science Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, 60637, IL · Department of Applied Mathematics, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, 95064, CA +1

  6. C-STRIDE: An Observation-Driven AI Digital Twin for Predicting Basin-Wide Flood Fields from Sparse Stream-Gauge Histories

    Sep 30, 2026Yanjie Tong, Phillip Si, Yuan Qiu +1Surrogate ModelingFlood Inundation Mapping

    School of Computational Science and Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 756 West Peachtree Street Northwest, Atlanta, 30308, GA, USA

  7. A Pre-trained Variational Autoencoder for Gyrokinetic Plasma Turbulence Surrogate Modeling

    Sep 29, 2026Minglei Yang, Marshall Nicholson, Diego Del-Castillo-Negrete +2Variational AutoencodersPhysics-Informed Generative Modeling

    Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA · Grand Valley State University, Allendale, MI, 49401, USA · University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, 78712, USA

  8. GPARA: Graph-Posterior-Aligned Refinement and Active Acquisition for Grounding Diffusion Priors

    Sep 28, 2026Wangqian Chen, Hao Wang, Yumeng Zhang +3Surrogate ModelingActive Sensing

    The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology · The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen

  9. Learning Hierarchical Causal Representations of the Effects of Forcings on Temperature in Climate Models

    Sep 25, 2026Shan Zhao, Ilija Trajkovic, Julia Kaltenborn +4Surrogate ModelingCausal Representation Learning

    Technical University of Munich Munich, Germany · Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Karlsruhe, Germany · McGill University & Mila Montreal, Canada +1

  10. Probabilistic and Geometry Aware Neural Surrogate of Scrape Off Layer Plasma Simulations

    Sep 23, 2026Gabriele Gianuzzo, Stefan Dasbach, Fleur Hendriks +2Neural Surrogate ModelingSurrogate Modeling

    Eindhoven University of Technology · DIFFER

  11. KATOsuper: Surrogate-accelerated neural topology optimization with sensitivity-consistent Fourier neural operators

    Sep 23, 2026Shengyu Yan, Jasmin JelovicaNeural Surrogate ModelingTopology Optimization

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of British Columbia, 6250 Applied Science Ln, Vancouver, V6T 1Z4, Canada · Department of Civil Engineering, The University of British Columbia, 6250 Applied Science Ln, Vancouver, V6T 1Z4, Canada

  12. Artificial intelligence surrogates for treatment effect estimation with before-and-after data

    Sep 23, 2026Frances Dean, Anna Neufeld, Joshua Barrios +2Surrogate ModelingCausal Effect Estimation

    University of California, Berkeley · University of California, San Francisco · Williams College

  13. One-Step Generative Surrogate Models via Block-Triangular Joint Drifting

    Sep 22, 2026Nicholas Geissler, Shreya Jha, Ricardo Baptista +1Surrogate ModelingOne-Step Generative Modeling

    Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University · Statistical Sciences, University of Toronto · Institute of Mathematics, EPFL

  14. MGRD: Compact morphology-gated residual diffusion for variance-aware cross-domain neurite forecasting

    Sep 21, 2026Tsung Yeh Hsieh, Cosmin Anitescu, Chunghwan Kim +2Surrogate ModelingUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA · Department of Biomedical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA

  15. From Regional to Global: Transfer Learning for Atmospheric Transport Emulators

    Sep 20, 2026Jeff Clark, Elena Fillola, Nawid Keshtmand +2Surrogate ModelingTask Transferability Estimation

    School of Engineering Mathematics and Technology, University of Bristol, UK · School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, UK

  16. Real-time Generalizable Heart Valve Mechanics for Clinical Disease Assessment via a Physics-Conditioned Neural Operator

    Sep 20, 2026Shawn Koohy, Wensi Wu, Matthew A Jolley +1Surrogate ModelingPhysics-Informed Neural Operators

    Department of Mechanical Engineering and Applied Mechanics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA. · Cardiovascular Institute, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA, USA. · Department of Anesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA, USA. +1

  17. NS3Learn: Transferring 5G NR Mode-2 Reception Realism from ns-3 to the Veins/SUMO Stack for Connected-Vehicle Safety Assessment

    Sep 17, 2026Rasheed Bello, Arthur Mukwaya, Gurcan Comert +5Surrogate ModelingIntelligent Transportation Systems

    South Carolina State University Orangeburg, SC 29117, USA · North Carolina A&T State University Greensboro, NC 27411, USA · Dakota State University Madison, SD 57042, USA +1

  18. Search at the Cost of Sampling: Nearly-Instant Latent Space Bayesian Optimization

    Sep 16, 2026Donney Fan, Colin Doumont, Aleksandra Kalisz +4Surrogate ModelingBayesian Optimization

    University of British Columbia · Vector Institute · Tübingen AI Center +3

  19. Reduced-Space Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Optimization of Process Simulation Models

    Sep 15, 2026Niki Triantafyllou, Andrea Bernardi, Maria M. PapathanasiouMulti-Fidelity OptimizationSurrogate Modeling

    Sargent Centre for Process Systems Engineering, Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, UK

  20. Estimating Inconsistency Response Surfaces under Uncertainty in Cyber-Physical System Development

    Sep 11, 2026Johannes Mäkelburg, Tim Schwabe, Maribel AcostaCyber-Physical SystemsSurrogate Modeling

    Technische Universität München Munich, Germany

  21. Toward Reliable Railway-Bogie Response Prediction Using Multifidelity TDNN and Physics-Informed Residual Learning

    Sep 10, 2026Gyeolhee Lee, Moosun Kim, Taewook Kwon +3Surrogate ModelingResidual Learning

    Department of Automotive Engineering, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-ro, Seongdong-gu, Seoul 04763, Republic of Korea · Korea Railroad Research Institute, 176 Cheoldobangmulgwan-ro, Uiwang-si, Gyeonggi-do 16105, Republic of Korea · Department of Future Mobility, Hanyang University, 222 Wangsimni-ro, Seongdong-gu, Seoul 04763, Republic of Korea

  22. ONE CYLinder: A Benchmark for Graph-Based Surrogate Modeling of Unsteady Bluff-Body Flows

    Sep 8, 2026Théodore Michel, Antoine Campos, Alban Dujardin +3Surrogate ModelingPDE Surrogate Modeling

    Mines Paris PSL University Centre for Material Forming (CEMEF) UMR CNRS, Sophia Antipolis, 06904, France

  23. Earth System World Model for What-If Simulations: A Case Study for Terrestrial Ecosystems

    Sep 8, 2026Zhihao Wang, Ruichen Wang, Ruohan Li +6Surrogate ModelingWorld Model Learning

    University of Maryland · Rutgers University · University of Texas at Austin +1

  24. Structured Extrema Errors in Classical Surrogates for Viscous Burgers: A Physics-Consistent Interpretation

    Sep 7, 2026Youssef OubariKernel Ridge RegressionSurrogate Modeling

    IMT Atlantique, France

  25. Translation of Black-Box Clinical Prediction Models into Standalone Transparent Nomograms: Temporal External Validation in Heart Transplantation

    Sep 7, 2026Henry Pigot, Paulo J. G. Lisboa, Sandra Ortega-Martorell +3Surrogate ModelingHealthcare

    Department of Translational Medicine, Artificial Intelligence and Bioinformatics in Cardiothoracic Sciences Research Unit, Lund University, Lund, Sweden · Artificial Intelligence and Digital Technologies Research Institute, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, UK · Department of Thoracic and Vascular Surgery, Skåne University Hospital, Lund, Sweden

  26. SurgeGen: A Hybrid Generative Diffusion Framework for Storm Surge Scenario Synthesis

    Sep 3, 2026Shunan Zheng, John J. HasenbeinSurrogate ModelingPDE Surrogate Modeling

    Operations Research and Industrial Engineering University of Texas at Austin Austin, TX, USA

  27. MeanField Surrogate Modeling for Scalable Runtime Scheduling of Concurrent Heterogeneous AI Inference on Shared GPUs

    Sep 2, 2026Youssef Ennouri, Soonhoi HaSurrogate Modeling

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Republic of Korea

  28. PruneShift: A Framework for Evaluating Decision Reliability in Structured Pruning

    Aug 30, 2026Hao Ye, Gaopeng ZhangSurrogate ModelingStructured Pruning

    Xi’an Institute of Optics and Precision Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

  29. Interpretable AI with Local Distillation

    Aug 24, 2026Erin Craig, Yiling Huang, Snigdha PanigrahiSurrogate ModelingInterpretable ML

    Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan · Department of Statistics, University of Michigan

  30. Stochastic Emulation of a Fully Coupled Preindustrial E3SMv3 Simulation

    Aug 10, 2026Elynn Wu, James P. C. Duncan, Troy Arcomano +11Surrogate ModelingClimate Science

    Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (Ai2), Seattle, WA, USA · Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA · Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA +2