Synthetic Samples

Demographic synthetic survey panels are often validated by matching aggregate answers to published surveys. We test what that certificate establishes across six multiselect batteries from four survey organisations in three countries. The headline analysis is restricted to three instruments whose synthetic cohort and human target share the stated population frame; three other batteries remain sensitivity analyses. The response contract dominates measured fidelity. In the aligned instruments, committed sets leave 66 of 128 model-battery option slots empty in panels of up to 500 respondents, versus 0 of 128 under per-option probability elicitation. Across eight uncapped model-instrument comparisons, probabilities reduce option-marginal MAE by 4.53 to 7.30 points. The capped instrument reverses on two models until the vectors are projected onto its stated maximum. These are measurement effects: human targets are realised check-all responses, whereas the vectors are latent inclusion propensities. Published marginal agreement also fails to discriminate respondent simulation from direct population estimation. On nine aligned model-battery pairs, a no-persona population-prevalence query averages 6.27 MAE versus 12.39 for committed panels and wins all nine comparisons. Constraint-aware probability vectors average 5.34 and beat the query on four of nine, so the baseline challenges the validation criterion rather than proving direct estimation uniformly best. On three unpublished demographic cells, neither approach beats reciting the national distribution. Population-marginal agreement is therefore evidence about an elicitation contract and an estimand obtainable without simulated respondents, not evidence of individual simulation.

Watermarking has been proposed as a way to identify synthetic samples in estimation settings where no metadata is available to distinguish them from real samples, but its precise effects remain unexplored. In the absence of a distinguishing mechanism, it has been shown that adding synthetic samples significantly reduces the marginal efficacy of new real samples. In this work, we study the minimax loss of such recursive discrete distribution estimation in the presence of watermarks in contrast to the unassisted and oracle-assisted losses. When the fraction of real samples vanishes asymptotically, we provide a lower bound that shows that it is impossible to improve performance by adding watermarks unless the false negative rate of detection also vanishes. Additionally, we show that in most regimes, the worst-case losses of a sequence of simple deterministic estimators match the corresponding lower bounds up to constants. Finally, we propose masking, a randomization procedure that narrows the gap in the remaining regimes to a Jensen gap. We conjecture that a tighter lower bound argument can close this gap.

Background manipulation is a practical but under-specified image-forensics setting: the manipulated evidence can sit outside the salient foreground object, while many evaluations emphasize object-centric copy-move, splicing, or generic synthetic edits. We introduce BG-REAL, a public real-data anchored benchmark package for background manipulation detection and localization. The current release is built from Open Images V7 instance-segmentation sources and contains 7,000 processed samples over 1,200 source groups, including 6,000 public-data anchored samples and 1,000 synthetic control samples. BG-REAL covers six edit families, matched authentic controls, source-group splits, mask and leakage QA, 599 human-assisted quality-control rows, three completed external baselines (TruFor, MVSS-Net, and HiFi-Net), and five-seed model evaluation. Beyond aggregate accuracy, we use matched-authentic-control diagnostics to measure how often baselines misclassify re-encoded authentic images as manipulated at a threshold fixed on held-out validation data; false-positive rates range from 0.57 (TruFor, the lowest) to 1.00 (several weak or mask-informed baselines), indicating that re-encoding artifacts are a shared shortcut risk across baselines rather than a problem specific to any one model. The release provides the construction pipeline, evaluation protocol, paper-ready figures, and reproduction documentation. We frame BG-REAL as a background-manipulation-focused complement to general image-manipulation-localization benchmarks, not as a fully real-only or general-purpose benchmark.

Synthetic control (SC) matches a treated unit's pre-treatment trajectory to a weighted combination of donor units. We study Spectral SC, which instead matches the treated unit in coordinates defined by the leading temporal singular vectors of the donor panel, and a hybrid estimator that places separately tunable weight on retained and discarded directions, nesting raw-path SC and truncated Spectral SC as endpoints. We prove that the family reduces exactly to raw-path SC at full rank, that exact balance on $K$ retained dimensions with $N_0$ donors is underdetermined whenever $N_0>K+1$, with an affine solution set of dimension $N_0-K-1$, and that spectral imbalance maps to treatment-effect bias through a finite-sample best-linear-predictor decomposition. We evaluate the estimators across eleven data-generating regimes, using $400$ replications per regime and donor-only placebo validation to select regularization and the mixing weight. Truncated Spectral SC has significantly higher RMSE than tuned raw-path SC in every regime, with paired differences equal to $4$ to $11$ Monte Carlo standard errors. The hybrid estimator selects raw-path matching in most replications and is statistically indistinguishable from tuned SC in most regimes. The result is highly sensitive to preprocessing. With raw inputs, the performance gap is large; after removing unit and time fixed effects before spectral decomposition, as suggested by the assumptions behind our bound, the gap nearly disappears and placebo validation begins to favor truncation. We interpret these findings diagnostically rather than as evidence that Spectral SC should replace raw-path SC. Basis-estimation noise, balancing underdetermination, and fixed-effects contamination determine when spectral matching can help.

Generative Synthetic Populations (GSP) -- the convergence of population synthesis, agent-based modelling, and LLM agents -- are attracting growing interest for urban simulation and institutional communication research. Before any GSP instrument is used on a real population, a more basic question must be answered: does it respond to stimuli of known valence in an ordered, replicable, group-structured way? We call this controllability. We ask not whether a synthetic population tracks humans, but whether it tracks itself: whether the latent structure we impose on it is recovered in its own responses. This internal-validity question is logically prior to any claim about external validity, just as characterising an instrument's response function must precede using it to test a theory. We report SIVE (Synthetic Instrument Validation Experiment): a fictional municipality (Montelago) with 120 synthetic personas of known latent structure, exposed to seven conditions spanning strongly positive to strongly negative institutional communications about a water network. Seven pre-registered criteria, evaluated across a temperature sweep, jointly assess fidelity, stability, noise floor, specificity, sensitivity, and ordering. All seven pass at every temperature. A central finding turns a calibration failure into a diagnostic success: a message designed as "weakly positive" was identified by the instrument as functionally negative, traced to unresolved problems, uncertainty, and institutional passivity in its text; a redesigned version restored the expected ordering and interacts with agents' latent trust in unanticipated ways. A noise sub-experiment shows the instrument's intrinsic noise is roughly half the cross-agent estimate and stable across temperatures. Individual trajectories reveal coherent micro-dynamics that summary statistics obscure. Full data are available via an interactive explorer.

Detecting unanswerable user queries remains essential for the reliable deployment of real-world embodied agents. However, modern vision-language models (VLMs) often generate overly confident answers even when the available visual memory cannot support the query. Such overconfidence poses various task-dependent risks. The agent may provide misleading information to the user in Embodied Question Answering and select an arbitrary coordinate and physically guide the user there in spatial reasoning for navigation. Despite these high stakes, only a few prior studies directly address when and how an embodied VLM should respond with "I do not know." This work proposes Semantic Flip, a simple yet effective framework that synthesizes auxiliary out-of-distribution (OOD) samples for embodied refusal without requiring external OOD annotations. The key idea is to independently transform the query and video memory to construct auxiliary OOD pairs that lack sufficient visual grounding. These synthesized pairs enable training a lightweight rejection module on top of a frozen pretrained VLM. The module attaches to any existing VLM-based pipeline without retraining the underlying model. Across two complementary benchmarks, Semantic Flip consistently outperforms strong prompting baselines. This work also introduces SpaceReject, a new refusal benchmark for spatial localization with deliberately unanswerable queries over long video memory, where Semantic Flip achieves an $F_1$ score of 0.9559. The source codes and datasets are publicly available at https://github.com/ndb796/SemanticFlip.

Scientific observations generate large quantities of unlabeled data which is laborious to hand-label, making unsupervised learning techniques valuable for processing datasets. Among these approaches, contrastive learning provides a convenient mechanism for extracting structural representations from unannotated datasets. For natural imagery, the general approach is to use a variety of data-space augmentation methods in order to generate synthetic samples; however, for scientific observations data-space perturbations can fundamentally alter the underlying data. Our proposed method is to generate contrastive samples by perturbing the network weights rather than the underlying data, thus more closely preserving the structure of the data. We demonstrate this technique using a SimCLR-based pipeline applied over radar observations of meteors, and show performance gains under matched protocols.

Exemplar-free class-incremental learning (EFCIL) aims to acquire new classes over time without storing raw data. Historically, prototype rehearsal, which samples around stored class prototypes and mixes them with current-task data, has been a popular strategy to reduce catastrophic forgetting. However, recent drift-compensation methods that explicitly realign prototypes in the evolving feature space consistently outperform prototype-based rehearsal, raising the question of whether rehearsal itself is fundamentally limited. We argue that the performance gap stems not from the idea of prototype rehearsal per se, but from how it is typically instantiated: existing approaches treat prototypes as isolated class summaries that ignore information from nearby enemy classes, and fail to correct the emerging class imbalance between a handful of synthetic old-class samples and hundreds of real instances from newly introduced classes. Building on this hypothesis, we revisit prototype rehearsal and propose a manifold-aware variant that restores its competitiveness in EFCIL. First, we introduce Constrained Expansive Over-Sampling, which interpolates each old-class prototype toward its nearest enemy features from new classes, generating boundary-aware rehearsal samples that better follow the underlying data manifold while preserving inter-class separation. Second, we design an Adaptive Class-Balanced loss that performs time-based class weighting, amplifying gradients from older prototypes when they are most informative and gradually annealing their influence as richer supervision from later tasks accumulates. Together, these components turn prototype rehearsal into a drift-resilient, imbalance-aware mechanism that closes, and often reverses, the gap to recent drift-compensation methods, achieving state-of-the-art performance across multiple EFCIL benchmarks.

Creating sound for storytelling is crucial to establishing the environment in productions such as films, TV series and video games. This process often involves repeating, layering and recording real objects or using sound libraries, which can be time-consuming and repetitive. To address these challenges, procedural audio, also known as digital foley, offers a solution by allowing sound designers to quickly generate samples. Despite its efficiency, questions remain about the believability of synthetic samples compared to real ones. In our study, we compared synthetic samples generated by an online procedural engine and integrated them with both animated and live-action visuals. Our results indicate that procedural audio is highly effective and perceived as believable in drama and sci-fi scenes, particularly for sound models such as lasers, hits, air and rockets, whereas synthetic sounds weren't as believable in cartoon productions when representing everyday actions. Finally, we identified specific models that needed optimisation and highlighted audio features that needed improvement with feedback from audio professionals.

Single-arm trials are an important study design for evaluating drug efficacy and safety without enrolling patients into a control arm. Although they do not provide the gold-standard evidence of randomized controlled trials, they are increasingly used in clinical development as they offer an efficient, ethical, and practical alternative. A wide variety of approaches can be used to construct control comparators and estimate treatment effects, from fixed comparators informed by clinical knowledge to data-based and model-based patient-level comparators, also known as synthetic controls. Powerful and flexible machine learning models can allow outcome-model-based synthetic controls to overcome key limitations of direct data-based approaches, yield more robust estimates of treatment effects, and provide a principled way to incorporate corrections or encode additional assumptions when external data are not directly comparable. In this work, we argue that outcome-model-based synthetic control arms are an important tool for single-arm trials. We focus on digital twins, personalized predictions of disease progression generated from machine learning models trained on historical datasets, which naturally leverage these flexible approaches. We review doubly robust estimators, present power and sample size formulas, and discuss trade-offs in selecting historical data for training and analysis. We also outline practical considerations for deploying digital twins within the framework of recent FDA draft guidance on the use of artificial intelligence in drug development. Finally, we reanalyze data from trials in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and Huntington's disease to demonstrate the proposed methods.

Synthetic data is useful only when the added samples fill missing parts of the training distribution that matter for the downstream task. We introduce LiBaGS, a lightweight, generator-agnostic method for targeted synthetic training data selection. LiBaGS scores candidate synthetic samples by combining decision-boundary proximity, predictive uncertainty, real-data density, and support validity, so that selected samples are both informative and likely to remain on the real data manifold. We then use a boundary-gap allocation rule that targets sparse but realistic decision-boundary neighborhoods, rather than simply adding more data or selecting only the most uncertain candidates. LiBaGS also learns when enough synthetic samples have been added through a marginal-value stopping rule, assigns softer labels near ambiguous boundaries, and uses a diversity objective to avoid redundant near-duplicate selections. Experiments show that LiBaGS improves accuracy over classical oversampling, hard augmentation, uncertainty and density ablations, and targeted-generation selection criteria.

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) for domain-specific tasks requires training datasets that comprehensively cover the target capabilities a practitioner needs. Yet identifying which capabilities a dataset fails to support, and doing so before an expensive fine-tuning run, remains a largely unsolved problem. We introduce GoalCover, a framework that helps practitioners systematically detect capability gaps in fine-tuning datasets through interactive goal decomposition and automated coverage assessment. GoalCover guides a practitioner through structured decomposition of a high-level goal into atomic, independently evaluable subgoals; assigns each training sample an LLM-based alignment score against every subgoal; and surfaces missing capabilities through automated analysis of low-scoring sample explanations. We validate the framework along two complementary axes. First, through controlled corruption experiments across three domains (medical QA, legal summarization, code generation), we show that GoalCover reliably distinguishes targeted from non-targeted capability impacts: target subgoals degrade by 25.6% on average versus 2.1% for non-target subgoals (Cohen's d=1.24). Second, we demonstrate downstream utility on a financial-summarization Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (RFT) task with Qwen-3-14B: training on GoalCover-filtered data improves the LLM-judge reward from 3.77 to 4.12 (out of 5) over the unfiltered baseline, and combining filtered data with goal-conditioned synthetic samples yields the strongest result (4.20). The two results together show that GoalCover works as a practical pre-fine-tuning diagnostic: it detects capability gaps and produces concrete signal for closing them.

The bottleneck in learning-based industrial defect detection is often limited not by model capacity, but by the scarcity of labeled defect data: defects are rare, annotations are expensive, and collecting balanced training sets is slow. We present an end-to-end pipeline for synthetic defect generation and annotation, combining Vision-Language-Model-based prompts, LoRA-adapted diffusion, mask-guided inpainting, and sample filtering with automatic label derivation, and demonstrates the potential of real data with realistic synthetic samples to overcome data scarcity. The evaluation is conducted on, a challenging dataset of pitting defects on ball screw drives, and then on a subset of the Mobile phone screen surface defect segmentation dataset (MSD) dataset to test cross-domain transfer. Beyond downstream detector performance, we analyze key stages of the pipeline, including prompt construction, LoRA selection, and sample filtering with DreamSim and CLIPScore, to understand which synthetic samples are both realistic and useful. Experiments with YOLOv26, YOLOX, and LW-DETR show that synthetic-only training does not replace real data. When combined with real data, synthetic defects can preserve performance and yield modest gains in selected BSData training regimes. The MSD transfer study shows that the overall pipeline structure carries over to a second industrial inspection domain, while also highlighting the importance of domain-specific adaptation and annotation-quality control. Overall, the paper provides an end-to-end assessment of diffusion-based industrial defect synthesis and shows that its strongest value lies in strengthening scarce real datasets rather than substituting for them.

Exploiting deep learning in medical imaging faces critical challenges, including strict privacy constraints, heterogeneous imaging devices with varying acquisition properties, and class imbalance due to the uneven prevalence of pathologies. In this work, we propose FedSSG, a novel Federated Learning framework that addresses domain shifts caused by diverse imaging devices while mitigating the under-representation of rare pathologies. The key contribution is a strategy for generating synthetic samples and distributing them across clients to improve coverage of both underrepresented pathologies and imaging devices. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach significantly enhances model performance and generalization across heterogeneous institutions, with minimal computational overhead at the client side.

Baseline estimation is critical to Demand Response (DR) settlement in electricity markets, yet existing machine learning methods remain limited in predictive performance, while methodologies from causal inference and counterfactual prediction are still underutilized in this domain. We introduce a Generalized Synthetic Control Method that builds on the classical Synthetic Control Method (SCM) from econometrics. While SCM provides a powerful framework for counterfactual estimation, classical SCM remains a static estimator: it fits the treated unit as a combination of contemporaneous donor units and therefore ignores predictable temporal structure in the residual error. We develop a generalized SCM framework that transforms baseline estimation into a dynamic counterfactual prediction problem by augmenting the donor representation with exogenous features, lagged treated load, and selected lagged donor signals. This enriched representation allows the estimator to capture autoregressive dependence, delayed donor-response patterns, and error-correction effects beyond the scope of standard SCM. The framework further accommodates nonlinear predictors when linear weighting is inadequate, with the greatest benefit arising in limited-data settings. Experiments on the Ausgrid smart-meter dataset show consistent improvements over classical SCM and strong benchmark methods, with the dominant performance gains driven by dynamic augmentation.

Objective. Standard Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) reconstruction pipelines discard phase information captured during acquisition, despite evidence that it encodes tissue properties relevant to tumor diagnosis. Current machine learning approaches inherit this limitation by operating exclusively on reconstructed magnitude images. The aim of this study is to build a generative framework which is capable of jointly modeling magnitude and phase information of complex-valued MRI scans. Approach. The proposed generative framework combines a conditional variational autoencoder, which compresses complex-valued MRI scans into compact latent representations while preserving phase coherence, with a flow-matching-based generative model. Synthetic sample quality is assessed via a real-versus-synthetic classifier and by training downstream classifiers on synthetic data for abnormal tissue detection. Main results. The autoencoder preserves phase coherence above 0.997. Real-versus-synthetic classification yields low AUROC values between 0.50 and 0.66 across all acquisition sequences, indicating generated samples are nearly indistinguishable from real data. In downstream normal-versus-abnormal classification, classifiers trained entirely on synthetic data achieve an AUROC of 0.880, surpassing the real-data baseline of 0.842 on a publicly available dataset (fastMRI). This advantage persists on an independent external test set from a different institution with biopsy-confirmed labels. Significance. The proposed framework demonstrates the feasibility of jointly modeling magnitude and phase information for normal and abnormal complex-valued brain MRI data. Beyond synthetic data generation, it establishes a foundation for the usage of complete brain MRI information in future diagnostic applications and enables systematic investigation of how magnitude and phase jointly encode pathology-specific features.

We propose a generalization of the synthetic control methods to the setting with dynamic treatment effects, in which each unit receives multiple treatments sequentially, according to an adaptive policy that depends on a latent, endogenously time-varying confounding state. Under a low-rank latent factor model assumption, which admits linear time-varying and time-invariant dynamic triangular systems as special cases, we develop an identification strategy for any unit-specific mean outcome under any sequence of interventions. Our method, which we term synthetic blips, is a backward induction process in which the blip effect of a treatment at each period for a target unit is recursively expressed as a linear combination of the blip effects of other units that received the designated treatment, avoiding the combinatorial donor requirements of naive synthetic control extensions. We provide easy-to-implement estimation algorithms that yield consistent estimators. Using unique Korean firm-level panel data, we estimate individualized dynamic treatment effects and optimal allocation rules in the context of financial support for exporting firms.

Speaker embeddings, or x-vectors, are widely used to represent speaker identity and speaker-related attributes, but existing embedding extractors are typically descriptive rather than generative: they map an observed speech segment to an x-vector, which is then used for downstream applications. We introduce ProPS, Prompted Profile Synthesis, a framework for generating distributions of speaker embeddings conditioned on natural language prompts such as "a thirties male speaker with an Indian accent". ProPS converts human-written profile descriptions into sentence embeddings and uses a mixture density network trained on a large-scale dataset to predict a Gaussian mixture model in the x-vector space. The model is trained by maximizing the likelihood that real speaker embeddings match the requested profile, and its generated distributions are evaluated by negative log-likelihood on held-out x-vectors and by attribute classification accuracies on sampled synthetic x-vectors. Experiments show that ProPS produces profile-conditioned distributions and generates x-vectors that preserve requested speaker attributes such as age, gender, accent, and prosodic characteristics. This design enables controllable speaker-profile synthesis for speech generation systems like Text-To-Speech (TTS) or Voice Conversion (VC) while anchoring generated distributions in observed speaker-embedding structure.