Credit Assignment

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed for autonomous financial trading, a domain requiring continuous adaptation to noisy, non-stationary markets. Existing self-improving agents typically address this through unbounded free-form prompt optimization. However, in low signal-to-noise environments with delayed scalar rewards (P&L), this unstructured approach exacerbates the fundamental credit assignment problem: optimizers cannot reliably distinguish systematic logic flaws from stochastic market variance, inevitably leading to policy drift. To overcome this bottleneck, we introduce the Self-Evolving Human-Auditable Rubric Policy (SHARP), a neuro-symbolic framework that replaces unconstrained text mutation with structured, symbolic policy optimization. SHARP confines the agent's reasoning to a bounded, human-readable rubric of explicit condition-action rules. When sub-optimal trades occur, an attribution agent employs cross-sample reasoning across multiple samples to isolate specific rule failures. This enables targeted, atomic policy edits that are subsequently regularized through strict walk-forward validation. Evaluated across three diverse equity sectors and four LLM backbones, SHARP consistently transforms generic initial heuristics into highly robust strategies, lifting the empirical performance of compact models by 10 to 20 percentage points on average (e.g., GPT-4o-mini). Ultimately, SHARP demonstrates that LLMs can achieve dynamic and efficient adaptation while significantly enhancing the structural transparency and auditability demanded by institutional finance.

Attribution methods explain which input features drive a model's prediction, making them central to model debugging and mechanistic interpretability. Yet backward attribution methods, including gradients, LRP, and transformer-specific rules, lack a shared framework in which to compare the underlying backward calculations. We introduce such a framework by recasting backward attribution as a two-player game on an extended network graph, building on Gaubert and Vlassopoulos' ReLU Net Game. Gradients and the full alpha-beta-LRP family arise as integrals over game trajectories under specific equilibria, so attribution maps become projections of trajectory distributions rather than the primary object. Desired explanation properties, such as localisation focus, robustness to input noise, or stable attention routing, can be specified as game-theoretic concepts, including policy regularization, risk aversion, and extended action sets, and translate directly into novel adaptations of the well-known backward rules. On ViT-B/16, one such selected adaptation of alpha-beta-LRP outperforms prior transformer-specific backward methods across all considered localisation metrics.

While long-horizon agentic tasks require language agents to perform dozens of sequential decisions, training such agents with reinforcement learning remains challenging. We identify two root causes: credit misattribution, where correct early actions are penalized due to terminal failures, and sample inefficiency, where scarce successful trajectories result in near-total loss of learning signal. We introduce a milestone-guided policy learning framework, BEACON, that leverages the compositional structure of long-horizon tasks to ensure precise credit assignment. BEACON partitions trajectories at milestone boundaries, applies temporal reward shaping within segments to credit partial progress, and estimates advantages at dual scales to prevent distant failures from corrupting the evaluation of local actions. On ALFWorld, WebShop, and ScienceWorld, BEACON consistently outperforms GRPO and GiGPO. Notably, on long-horizon ALFWorld tasks, BEACON achieves 92.9% success rate, nearly doubling GRPO's 53.5%, while improving effective sample utilization from 23.7% to 82.0%. These results establish milestone-anchored credit assignment as an effective paradigm for training long-horizon language agents. Code is available at https://github.com/ZJU-REAL/BEACON.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has become a key approach for improving the reasoning abilities of large language models. However, widely used critic-free algorithms such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) necessitate a ``uniform credit assignment'' assumption that indiscriminately broadcast trajectory-level advantages, hindering learning efficiency by failing to distinguish critical reasoning steps. To address this limitation, we propose Selective Eligibility Traces (S-trace). Grounded in the intuition of partial trust region preservation, we initially introduce P-trace as a sample-efficient, critic-free eligibility traces method, upon which we build S-trace, implementing a sparse eligibility traces mechanism to further mitigate variance and achieve fine-grained credit assignment by selectively masking low-entropy tokens. Theoretically, we contextualize the recent Group Sequence Policy Optimization (GSPO) method within the critic-free eligibility traces framework, identifying it as a special instance of the eligibility traces method operating under uniform credit assignment. Experiments demonstrate that S-trace not only outperforms GRPO, showing gains of 0.49% on Qwen3-1.7B and 3.16% on Qwen3-4B, and maintaining a robust 2.98% improvement when scaled further to Qwen3-8B in average pass@16, but notably achieves this with simultaneously higher sample and token efficiency.

Long-horizon LLM agents depend on intermediate information-gathering turns, yet training feedback is usually observed only at the final answer, because process-level rewards require high-quality human annotation. Existing turn-level shaping methods reward turns that increase the likelihood of a gold answer, but they require answer supervision or stable task-specific verifiers. Conversely, label-free RL methods extract self-signals from output distributions, but mainly at the answer or trajectory level and therefore cannot assign credit to intermediate turns. We propose Self-Induced Outcome Potential (SIOP), which treats semantic clusters of final answers as latent future outcome states for potential-based turn-level credit assignment. For each query, SIOP samples multiple rollouts, clusters final answers into semantic outcome modes, and builds a reliability-aware target distribution over these states. It then rewards turns for increasing posterior support for reliable future states using a tractable cluster-level approximation. The objective generalizes information-potential shaping from gold-answer supervision to settings without task-specific gold verifiers while avoiding the broadcasted rollout-level advantages used by standard GRPO. We formalize the framework, characterize its supervised gold-answer limit, and show that SIOP improves average performance over verifier-free outcome-level baselines on seven search-augmented agentic reasoning benchmarks while approaching a gold-supervised outcome baseline. Code is available at https://github.com/dl-m9/SIOP.git.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR), particularly Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), has advanced LLM reasoning. However, GRPO suffers from three credit assignment failures: uniform token-level granularity that ignores heterogeneous informational value, uniform polarity that penalizes correct steps and rewards incorrect ones, and zero-variance collapse that erases outcome-driven gradients. We systematically quantify these failures, revealing highly non-uniform token informativeness, widespread step-level polarity misalignment, and substantial training waste. To address these limitations, we propose Entropy-Progress Aligned GRPO (EP-GRPO), a framework that mines the model's intrinsic information flow for dense, self-supervised guidance. EP-GRPO integrates entropy-gated modulation to prioritize high entropy decision pivots, implicit process signals from policy divergence anchored to outcome advantages for directional token-level feedback without external reward models, and cumulative entropy mapping that enables progress-aligned advantage normalization, naturally maintaining gradient flow under zero reward variance. Extensive experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that EP-GRPO achieves superior accuracy and efficiency compared to GRPO and its variants. The code will be available.

Memory systems are widely adopted to enhance LLMs for long-horizon tasks, and are commonly organized as multi-agent pipelines with memory building, summarizing, and retrieval agents. To empower this system, existing RL-based methods either apply final downstream task rewards (e.g., QA accuracy) for all agents uniformly, which are coarse and ambiguous, or design task-specific rewards for agents on different subtasks, which require costly annotations (e.g., key evidence) and are difficult to define reliably. To address these limitations, we propose Tree-based Credit Assignment for Multi-Agent Memory Systems (TreeMem), which derives agent-specific credit from the final reward without task-specific annotations. Specifically, TreeMem extends the multi-agent pipeline (builder--summarizer--retrieval) into a tree structure, where each agent's outputs are expanded into multiple subsequent branches. The contribution of each agent is estimated via Monte Carlo averaging over its subsequent branches, capturing how intermediate agent actions may influence the final reward. This converts the coarse final reward into agent-specific optimization signals. These signals are then used to update all agent policies simultaneously, helping heterogeneous agents specialize effectively. Experiments on long-horizon benchmarks show that TreeMem improves memory system performance over strong baselines, validating the effectiveness of tree-structured credit assignment for the multi-agent memory system.

We introduce Knowledge-Free Correlated Agreement (KFCA) to reward client contributions in federated learning (FL) without relying on ground truth, a public test set, or distribution knowledge. Under categorical reports and an honest majority, KFCA is strictly truthful, addressing the label-flipping vulnerability of Correlated Agreement (CA). We evaluate KFCA on federated LLM adapter tuning and a real-world PCB inspection task, showing efficient real-time reward computation suitable for decentralized and blockchain-based incentive designs.

Tool-integrated Text-to-SQL parsing has emerged as a promising paradigm, framing SQL generation as a sequential decision-making process interleaved with tool execution. However, existing reinforcement learning approaches mainly rely on coarse-grained outcome supervision, resulting in a fundamental credit assignment problem: models receive the same reward for any trajectory that yields the correct answer, even when intermediate steps are redundant, inefficient, or erroneous. Consequently, models are encouraged to explore suboptimal reasoning spaces, limiting both efficiency and generalization. To address this problem, we propose FineStep, a novel framework for step-level credit assignment in tool-augmented Text-to-SQL. First, we introduce a reward design with independent process rewards to alleviate the signal sparsity of outcome supervision. Next, we present a step-level credit assignment mechanism to precisely quantify the value of each reasoning step. Finally, we develop a policy optimization method based on step-level advantages for efficient updates. Extensive experiments on BIRD benchmarks show that FineStep achieves state-of-the-art performance and reduces redundant tool interactions, with a 3.25% average EX gain over GRPO at the 4B scale.

Reinforcement learning is crucial for aligning large language models to perform complex reasoning tasks. However, current algorithms such as Group Relative Policy Optimization suffer from coarse grained, sequence level credit assignment, which severely struggles to isolate pivotal reasoning steps within long Chain of Thought generations. Furthermore, the standard unbounded Kullback Leibler divergence penalty induces severe gradient instability and mode seeking conservatism, ultimately stifling the discovery of novel reasoning trajectories. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Distribution Guided Policy Optimization, a novel critic free reinforcement learning framework that reinterprets distribution deviation as a guiding signal rather than a rigid penalty. DGPO replaces the volatile KL divergence with the bounded Hellinger distance to safely quantify token level exploration without the risk of gradient explosion. To effectively distinguish genuine reasoning breakthroughs from hallucinatory noise, we propose an entropy gating mechanism that scales this deviation by the policy`s epistemic uncertainty. By dynamically redistributing the coarse sequence-level advantage to individual tokens based on these gated scores, DGPO heavily incentivizes critical exploratory steps while suppressing unwarranted, low-entropy deviations. Consequently, DGPO completely eliminates the traditional token-level KL penalty and achieves fine-grained credit reallocation without the computational overhead of an additional value network. Extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate that DGPO sets a new state-of-the-art for critic free alignment. Notably, on the Qwen2.5-32B architecture, DGPO achieves 60.0% Avg@32 accuracy and 46.0% Avg@32 accuracy on the challenging AIME2024 and AIME2025 benchmarks respectively, substantially outperforming competitive baselines like DAPO.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has substantially improved the ability of large language model (LLM) agents to interact with environments and solve multi-turn tasks. However, effective agentic RL remains challenging: sparse outcome-only rewards provide limited guidance for assigning credit to individual steps within long interaction trajectories. Existing approaches often introduce dense intermediate supervision, such as process reward models or auxiliary self-supervised signals, which increases supervision and tuning complexity and may limit generalization across tasks and domains. We present AEM, a supervision-free credit assignment method that adaptively modulates entropy dynamics during RL training to improve the exploration-exploitation trade-off. Since in agentic RL the environment is typically affected by a complete response, rather than an individual token, our analysis lifts entropy dynamics from the token level to the response level, aligning uncertainty estimation with the effective action granularity of LLM agents and reducing sensitivity to token-level sampling noise. We further show that entropy drift under natural-gradient updates is governed by the interaction between the sampled-response advantage and its relative surprisal. Motivated by this result, AEM derives a practical response-level uncertainty proxy and uses it to rescale advantages, leveraging the evolving balance between positive and negative samples to naturally transition from exploration to exploitation. Extensive experiments on ALFWorld, WebShop, and SWE-bench-Verified with models ranging from 1.5B to 32B demonstrate that AEM consistently improves strong RL baselines, including a +1.4% gain when integrated into a state-of-the-art software-engineering RL training framework.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) performs coarse-grained credit assignment in reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) by assigning the same advantage to all tokens in a rollout. Process reward models can provide finer-grained supervision, but they require step-level annotation or additional reward modeling. We show that hidden-state distributions contain a useful signal for local reasoning quality that can be extracted using only outcome-level correctness labels available in RLVR. Specifically, within each GRPO group, the Wasserstein distance between span-level hidden state distributions of correct and incorrect rollouts increases around regions where their local reasoning quality diverges. This association holds both across examples and within individual trajectories, suggesting that hidden-state distributional divergence can serve as a self-supervision signal for fine-grained credit assignment. We formalize this observation with a separation theorem showing that, under mild structural assumptions, post-divergence spans have larger Wasserstein distances than pre-divergence spans whenever the population-level distributional gap exceeds finite-sample noise. Motivated by this result, we propose \textbf{S}pan-level \textbf{H}idden state \textbf{E}nabled \textbf{A}dvantage \textbf{R}eweighting (SHEAR), which modifies GRPO by using span-level Wasserstein distances to scale token-level advantages, amplifying updates on tokens whose hidden states are more separated from the opposing group. The method requires no additional model and only minimal changes to the training pipeline. Experiments on five mathematical reasoning benchmarks and five code generation benchmarks show improvements over standard GRPO and strong performance relative to supervised process reward models, while requiring no additional annotation or reward model training.

Point-Vision-Language Models promise to empower embodied agents with executable spatial reasoning, yet they frequently succumb to geometric hallucination where predicted 3D structures contradict the observed 2D reality. We identify a key cause of this failure not as a representation bottleneck but as a structural misalignment in reinforcement learning, where sparse geometric tokens are drowned out by noisy and broadcasted sequence-level rewards. To resolve this causal dilution, we propose Geometric Reward Credit Assignment, a framework that disentangles holistic supervision into field-specific signals and routes them exclusively to their responsible token spans. This mechanism transforms vague feedback into precise gradient updates and effectively turns generic policy optimization into targeted structural alignment. Furthermore, we internalize physical constraints via a Reprojection-Consistency term which serves as a cross-modal verifier to penalize physically impossible geometries. Validated on a calibrated benchmark derived from ShapeNetCore, our approach bridges the reliability gap by boosting 3D KPA from 0.64 to 0.93, increasing 3D bounding box intersection over union to 0.686, and raising reprojection consistency scores to 0.852. Crucially, these gains are achieved while maintaining robust 2D localization performance, marking a meaningful step from plausible textual outputs toward physically verifiable spatial predictions.

The temporal lag between actions and their long-term consequences makes credit assignment a challenge when learning goal-directed behaviors from data. Generative world models capture the distribution of future states an agent may visit, indicating that they have captured temporal information. How can that temporal information be extracted to perform credit assignment? In this paper, we formalize how the temporal information stored in world models encodes the underlying geometry of the world. Leveraging optimal transport, we extract this geometry from a learned model of the occupancy measure into a reward function that captures goal-reaching information. Our resulting method, Occupancy Reward Shaping, largely mitigates the problem of credit assignment in sparse reward settings. ORS provably does not alter the optimal policy, yet empirically improves performance by 2.2x across 13 diverse long-horizon locomotion and manipulation tasks. Moreover, we demonstrate the effectiveness of ORS in the real world for controlling nuclear fusion on 3 Tokamak control tasks. Code: https://github.com/aravindvenu7/occupancy_reward_shaping; Website: https://aravindvenu7.github.io/website/ors/

Reinforcement learning for multi-step reasoning with large language models (LLMs) typically relies on sparse terminal rewards, which creates a poorly conditioned credit-assignment problem: the final feedback is propagated uniformly across all intermediate decisions. This leads to high gradient variance, unstable training, and many ineffective updates, ultimately limiting sustained model improvement. We propose a counterfactual-comparison framework for credit assignment. For each input, the framework samples multiple reasoning trajectories and treats their differences as implicit approximations to alternative decisions. This yields an implicit process-level advantage estimator that converts sparse terminal rewards into step-sensitive learning signals. Building on this framework, we introduce Implicit Behavior Policy Optimization (IBPO), which substantially improves training stability and the performance ceiling on mathematical and code-reasoning benchmarks. Our results point to a promising direction for unlocking the reasoning potential of LLMs.

In cooperative teams where agents act in a fixed order and share a single team-level reward (multi-agent language systems, sequential robotic tasks), per-agent credit assignment is under-determined. Critic-based approaches scale poorly as the number of agents grows owing to the costly maintenance of joint/factored critic(s), whereas the existing critic-free alternatives have other issues: common credit across agents that couples every agent's signal to teammate noise, importance-sampling corrections for upstream-update staleness that incur variance exponential in team size, or per-agent counterfactual replay that isolates each agent's effect at the price of extra environment or reward calls. We propose COSAC, a critic-free per-agent policy gradient for sequential cooperative teams. COSAC fits an additive per-agent decomposition of the team reward by a single ridge regression on the rollout batch (giving each agent a learning signal decoupled from teammate noise), and computes each agent's counterfactual advantage from fictitious continuations of the current policy (policy forward passes that replace both importance-sampling reweighting and per-agent environment replay, at no extra environment or reward cost). The estimator instantiates the Sequential Aristocrat Utility (SeqAU), our extension of Wolpert and Tumer's (2001) aristocrat utility to sequential teams. We prove bias and variance bounds on SeqAU credits that stay controlled as the team grows. Our controlled study on sequential bandits demonstrates that COSAC attains the lowest advantage MSE and consistently low learning regret across team sizes up to $K = 16$. On the AI2 Reasoning Challenge (ARC) task, where four Qwen3-0.6B agents reason in turn about a grade-school science question, COSAC attains faster convergence than the other critic-free baselines.

The central challenge of reinforcement learning for reasoning lies not only in the sparsity of outcome-level supervision, but more fundamentally in how to transform feedback provided only at the end of a sequence into fine-grained learning signals that can guide intermediate reasoning steps. Existing approaches either rely on outcome-level rewards for sequence-level optimization, which makes precise credit assignment difficult, or depend on externally constructed process supervision, which is costly and difficult to scale sustainably. To address this, we propose a new perspective: reinforcement learning for reasoning can be understood as the problem of internalizing outcome supervision into process supervision. From this perspective, we introduce a supervision-internalization method for reinforcement learning for reasoning, enabling the model to automatically extract process-level learning signals through identifying, correcting, and reusing failed reasoning trajectories, thereby achieving finer-grained policy optimization under outcome-only supervision. We further abstract this idea into a new training paradigm, in which the model continually generates and refines its own internal process supervision during reinforcement learning, opening a new path for fine-grained credit assignment in reinforcement learning for reasoning that differs from externally provided process supervision.

We develop a unified treatment of credit assignment for RL training in multi-agent LLM systems. We show that observed reward alone cannot distinguish an agent that determines it from one that never affects it, and that standard shared-reward training performs exact gradient ascent on each agent's private utility rather than system performance. Moreover, we prove no single scalar per agent can consistently account for joint performance once agents interact. We thus develop the unique background-dependent notion of marginal contribution satisfying natural consistency requirements. From it we derive gradient-correct marginal contribution training signals, identify them from filtered feedback, and optimally allocate a budget of exact counterfactual evaluations against learned-signal error. Instantiated in GRPO, our signal improves routed GSM8K accuracy over winner-take-all training at no extra generation cost.

Reinforcement learning has emerged as an effective paradigm for training large language models to interleave reasoning with search engine calls. However, existing approaches face a fundamental credit assignment problem: methods like Search-R1 assign a single outcome reward to the entire multi-step trajectory, providing no signal about which reasoning or retrieval decisions were responsible for success or failure. Process-reward methods such as StepSearch introduce step-level supervision but still sample complete trajectories independently, so advantage estimates at any given step are contaminated by the randomness of all other steps. We propose SLATE (Step-Level Advantage estimation for Truncated Exploration), which addresses both problems through two complementary ideas. First, truncated step-level sampling generates k continuations from a shared prefix, isolating all variation to a single decision point. We prove this reduces the variance of advantage estimates by up to a factor of T compared to full-trajectory sampling for T-step trajectories, the first formal variance guarantee for step-level RL in retrieval-augmented reasoning. Second, dense, decomposed process rewards separately evaluate reasoning quality, query quality, and answer correctness on a ternary scale via an LLM judge, providing richer supervision than binary outcome signals or heuristic step-level scores. Experiments on seven QA benchmarks show that SLATE consistently outperforms both sparse-reward and process-reward baselines, achieving a 7.0% relative improvement over Search-R1 on the 7B model and 30.7% on the 3B model. Gains are largest on challenging multi-hop tasks, and ablations confirm that truncated sampling and dense rewards provide complementary benefits.

To promote cooperation in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning, the reward signals of all agents can be aggregated together, forming global rewards that are commonly known as the fully cooperative setting. However, global rewards are usually noisy because they contain the contributions of all agents, which have to be resolved in the credit assignment process. On the other hand, using local reward benefits from faster learning due to the separation of agents' contributions, but can be suboptimal as agents myopically optimize their own reward while disregarding the global optimality. In this work, we propose a method that combines the merits of both approaches. By using a graph of interaction between agents, our method discerns the individual agent contribution in a more fine-grained manner than a global reward, while alleviating the cooperation problem with agents' local reward. We also introduce a practical approach for approximating such a graph. Our experiments demonstrate the flexibility of the approach, enabling improvements over the traditional local and global reward settings.

Academic paper search is a fundamental task in scientific research, yet most existing approaches organize retrieval around predefined workflows or structured interaction protocols that struggle with complex, conditional queries. To address this limitation, we propose PaperScout, an autonomous agent that reformulates paper search as a sequential decision-making process. Unlike static workflows, PaperScout dynamically decides whether, when, and how to invoke search and expand tools based on accumulated retrieval context. However, training such agents presents a fundamental challenge: standard reinforcement learning methods, typically designed for single-turn tasks, suffer from a granularity mismatch when applied to multi-turn agentic tasks, where token-level optimization diverges from the granularity of sequence-level interactions, leading to noisy credit assignment and unstable training dynamics. We introduce Proximal Sequence Policy Optimization (PSPO), a process-aware, sequence-level policy optimization method that aligns optimization with agent--environment interaction. Comprehensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world benchmarks demonstrate that PaperScout significantly outperforms strong structured retrieval and RL baselines in both recall and relevance, validating the effectiveness of our adaptive agentic framework and optimization strategy.

This paper focuses on dynamic origin-destination matrix estimation (DODE), a crucial calibration process necessary for the effective application of microscopic traffic simulations. The fundamental challenge of the DODE problem in microscopic simulations stems from the complex temporal dynamics and inherent uncertainty of individual vehicle dynamics. This makes it highly challenging to precisely determine which vehicle traverses which link at any given moment, resulting in intricate and often ambiguous relationships between origin-destination (OD) matrices and their contributions to resultant link flows. This phenomenon constitutes the credit assignment problem, a central challenge addressed in this study. We formulate the DODE problem as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and propose a novel framework that applies model-free deep reinforcement learning (DRL). Within our proposed framework, the agent learns an optimal policy to sequentially generate OD matrices, refining its strategy through direct interaction with the simulation environment. This approach was evaluated through a toy experiment on the Nguyen-Dupuis network and a case study utilizing an actual highway subnetwork spanning Santa Clara and San Jose. Experimental results show that the proposed method consistently improves calibration performance relative to the strongest conventional baseline, reducing link-flow MSE by 23.7% in the toy experiment and by 59.2-88.3% in the real-world case study. By reframing DODE as a sequential decision-making problem, our approach addresses the credit assignment challenge through a learned policy and provides a novel framework for calibration of microscopic traffic simulations.

Recent work has argued normatively, on synthetic data, that evaluating survival models by discrimination alone (concordance index) yields systematically misleading model comparisons, because the metric ignores calibration and time-dependent accuracy. Whether this matters for real, published, non-clinical models has not been tested. We reproduce three published survival-ML models across three structurally distinct domains -- hard-drive failure prediction, peer-to-peer credit default, and user disengagement on digital platforms -- validate our instrument against the anchor paper's own synthetic experiment, and test five pre-registered hypotheses under a Holm-corrected family-wise error rate. Three of five reject (though one pre-registered threshold clears by a narrow margin). A model reproducing the published literature's discrimination almost exactly (C = 0.9595 vs. 0.958 reported) fails a formal calibration test at p < 0.001; a broad feature-ablation search finds no single attribute responsible for its discrimination, so the calibration failure is not a trivial shortcut artifact. A lender's estimated default risk is biased upward by roughly two percentage points, growing to nearly four in the riskiest segment, when loan prepayment is treated as non-informative censoring rather than a competing risk. A platform's churn model shows probability estimates that degrade with the horizon even as global discrimination stays within the pre-registered C-index band. A direct test of whether metric choice inverts model preference does not reject, though with limited power given two to three models per domain; the failure mode we document is better characterized as misplaced confidence in a chosen model than as choosing the wrong one. We release a pre-registered evaluation harness with full code and an annotated notebook, so these results can be verified independently and the audit extended.

The brain uses discrete spikes for dynamic computation, yet, how neural microcircuits (NMCs) solve temporal credit assignment using local spike timing remains a fundamental open question. Dominant spiking neural network (SNN) approaches circumvent this by approximating backpropagation through surrogate gradients, decoupling learning from biological spike timing. Here, we reformulate temporal credit assignment as a state separation problem: extracting task-required components induced by historical perturbations directly from the current neural state. This enables an online feedback learning framework for NMCs through a gradient tunneling (GT) algorithm and the lead-lag expansion technique that derives credit assignment from local synaptic spike timing, while remaining compatible with ANN-SNN hybrid architectures. Experimentally, GT-trained NMCs excel at long-timescale evidence integration and noise-robust memory retention, and perform comparably to leading SNN online learning methods on real-world benchmarks with far fewer parameters. The proposed framework addresses the two-decade-old NMC feedback learning problem and suggests a computationally plausible explanation for the brain's learning mechanisms.

Existing approaches to post-train models for long-context tasks face complementary limitations: (i) supervised fine-tuning (SFT) provides stable supervision but suffers from exposure bias; (ii) reinforcement learning methods such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) train on model-generated trajectories but struggle with long-horizon credit assignment and sparse rewards; and (iii) on-policy distillation (OPD) provides dense token-level guidance but does not directly optimize task rewards. We study these complementary strategies for long-context alignment and derive a recipe that combines GRPO with OPD-style teacher guidance: the student learns from its own rollouts using outcome-level rewards, while a stronger teacher provides dense token-level regularization in place of the standard reference policy. This is especially useful when process-level supervision is difficult to obtain. To support this study, we introduce LongBlocks, a synthetic multilingual dataset spanning multi-hop reasoning, contextual grounding, and long-form generation. Through controlled ablations, we isolate the roles of cold-start initialization, teacher anchoring, and data mixing, showing that our recipe yields a more stable and effective path to long-context reasoning than GRPO or OPD while preserving short-context capabilities.