Decision-Aware Uncertainty Evaluation of Vision-Language Model-Based Early Action Anticipation for Human-Robot Interaction

Trustworthy robot behavior requires not only high levels of task success but also that the robot can reliably quantify how likely it is to succeed. To this end, we present a first-of-its-kind study of confidence calibration in vision-language-action (VLA) foundation models, which map visual observations and natural language instructions to low-level robot motor commands. We establish a confidence estimation baseline for VLAs, examine how task success relates to calibration error and how calibration evolves over time, and introduce two lightweight techniques to remedy the miscalibration we observe: prompt ensembles and action-wise Platt scaling. Our aim in this study is to begin to develop the tools and conceptual understanding necessary to render VLAs trustworthy via reliable uncertainty quantification.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models have emerged as generalist robotic controllers that map visual observations and language instructions to continuous actions. However, pretrained VLAs typically provide limited information about the reliability of their generated actions, making deployment challenging when execution failures must be anticipated. We address this problem by introducing SentryVLA, a lightweight runtime wrapper for frozen VLA policies. At the action level, SentryVLA uses conformalized quantile regression to estimate a calibrated upper bound on the deviation between sampled VLA actions and expert-like behavior under the calibration distribution. The predicted deviation is then used to rank multiple stochastic candidates for action selection. At the execution-monitoring level, SentryVLA applies a Mahalanobis-distance-based anomaly score to the contextualized latent execution state extracted before final action prediction, providing a complementary signal for detecting abnormal execution states during closed-loop control. The framework does not require retraining or architectural modification of the underlying VLA policy. Experiments in simulation and on a physical robot show that SentryVLA improves action selection and provides useful runtime warning signals for abnormal execution states. These findings demonstrate the practical value of post-hoc reliability scoring for improving the runtime behavior of pretrained VLA policies. Project webpage: https://robotic-vision-lab.github.io/sentryvla/.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models enable general-purpose robotic policies by mapping visual observations and language instructions to low-level actions, but they often lack reliable introspection. A common practice is to compute a token-level uncertainty signal and take its mean over a rollout. However, mean aggregation can dilute short-lived but safety-critical uncertainty spikes in continuous control. In particular, successful rollouts may contain localized high-entropy segments due to benign noise or non-critical micro-adjustments, while failure rollouts can appear low-entropy for most timesteps and only exhibit brief spikes near the onset of failure. We propose a unified uncertainty quantification approach for predicting rollout success versus failure that (1) uses max-based sliding window pooling to preserve transient risk signals, (2) applies motion-aware stability weighting to emphasize high-frequency action oscillations associated with unstable behaviors, and (3) performs DoF-adaptive calibration via Bayesian Optimization to prioritize kinematically critical axes. Experiments on the LIBERO benchmark show that our method substantially improves failure prediction accuracy and yields more reliable signals for failure detection, which can support downstream human-in-the-loop interventions.