Generative AI-assisted Participatory Modeling in Socio-Environmental Planning under Deep Uncertainty
Organizations: School of Computing and Information Systems, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, The University of Melbourne, Parkville VIC 3010, Australia · The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Research Way, Clayton VIC 3168, Australia · Department of Psychiatry, The University of Melbourne, Parkville VIC 3010, Australia
Abstract
Socio-environmental planning under deep uncertainty requires researchers to identify and conceptualize problems before exploring policies and deploying plans. In practice and model-based planning approaches, this problem conceptualization process often relies on participatory modeling to translate stakeholders' natural-language descriptions into a quantitative model, making this process complex and time-consuming. To facilitate this process, we propose a templated workflow that uses large language models for an initial conceptualization process. During the workflow, researchers can use large language models to identify the essential model components from stakeholders' intuitive problem descriptions, explore their diverse perspectives approaching the problem, assemble these components into a unified model, and eventually implement the model in Python through iterative communication. These results will facilitate the subsequent socio-environmental planning under deep uncertainty steps. Using ChatGPT 5.2 Instant, we demonstrated this workflow on the lake problem and an electricity market problem, both of which demonstrate socio-environmental planning problems. In both cases, acceptable outputs were obtained after a few iterations with human verification and refinement. These experiments indicated that large language models can serve as an effective tool for facilitating participatory modeling in the problem conceptualization process in socio-environmental planning.
Figures & tables
| Types | Parameters | Descriptions |
| State variables | Lake pollution at time . | |
| Decision variables | Rate of anthropogenic pollution at time . | |
| Transition functions | System dynamics from to . | |
| Stochastic variables | Rate of natural pollution at time . | |
| Constants | Benefit-to-pollution ratio. | |
| Deep uncertainties | ; ; ; | Mean and standard deviation of the log-normal distribution for natural inflows; Natural removal rate; Recycling exponent; Discount factor. |
| Types | Parameters | Descriptions |
| Decision variables | Bid for the wind-power producer at time . | |
| Transition functions | Specification on how the market operator determines the market-clearing price and dispatches the schedule. | |
| Stochastic variables | ; ; ; | Market demand at time ; Bid price for the conventional producer at time ; Bid price for the solar-power producer at time ; Actual wind-power production at time . |
| Constants | ; ; ; ; | Mean and standard deviation of market demands; Bid quantity for the conventional producer ; Solar-power production parameters; Mean and standard deviation of wind-power production; Shortfall penalty coefficient. |
| Deep uncertainties | ; | Mean and standard deviation of bid prices for the conventional producer ; Mean and standard deviation of bid prices for the solar-power producer . |
| Objective functions | Daily expected revenue. |
| Variables | Descriptions | Formulas |
| Lake pollution | Lake pollution at time . |
| Variables | Descriptions | Formulas |
| Clearing price | Clearing price at time . | |
| Actual dispatched wind energy | Amount of wind energy actually dispatched at time . | if otherwise |
| Wind-power revenue | Revenue of the wind-power producer at time . Here, and are the bid quantity and price of the wind-power producer; . |
| Parameters | Descriptions | Values (dimensionless) |
| Pollution removal rate | 0.42 | |
| Recycling exponent | 2.0 | |
| Mean of natural pollution inflows | 0.02 | |
| Standard deviation of natural pollution inflows | 0.0017 | |
| Discount factor | 0.98 | |
| Anthropogenic pollution emission at time | Fixed sequence uniformly sampled from [0.02, 0.04] |
| Parameters | Descriptions | Values |
| Mean of market demands | 800 (MWh) | |
| Standard deviation of market demands | 200 (MWh) | |
| Bid quantity for the conventional producer | [300, 250, 1000] (MWh) | |
| Mean of bid prices for the conventional producer | [45, 50, 60] ($/MWh) | |
| Standard deviation of bid prices for the conventional producer | [5, 5, 5] ($/MWh) | |
| Solar-power production parameters | (0, -400) (MWh) |
| Tests | Details |
| Unit tests | They verified the correctness of the log-normal distribution sampling and the calculation of the eutrophication threshold. |
| Property-based test | It verified whether lake eutrophication is irreversible in the absence of regulatory intervention. |
| Scenario test | It verified whether the program’s performance was consistent with the standard implementation from EMA Workbench [ Kwakkel, 2017 ] in a specific scenario (described in Section 4.3.3 ). |
| Tests | Details |
| Unit tests | They verified that the profit and penalty calculations for the wind-power producer were correct and that total offered supply was sufficient to meet the market demand. |
| Property-based test | It verified the correctness of the implementation of the merit-order market-clearing mechanism. |
| Scenario test | It verified whether the program’s performance was consistent with the baseline implementation in a specific scenario (described in Section 4.3.3 ). |
| State variables | Decision variables | Transition function | Stochastic variables | Constants | Deep uncertainties | Objective function | Other component | |
| Lake (before) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0.25 |
| Lake (after) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Comprehensive market (before) | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| Brief market (before) | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Market (after, for both) | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| Lake Problem [mean std] | Electricity Market Problem (comprehensive) [mean std] | Electricity Market Problem (brief) [mean std] | |
| Initial formalization | |||
| Multi-perspective formalization | |||
| Composition | |||
| Python implementation |