Uncertainty-Aware Vision-based Risk Object Identification via Conformal Risk Tube Prediction

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object detection. However, object detection introduces structured multi-output predictions, complicating the application of classical CP theory developed for single outputs. In addition, standard, unscaled CP produces fixed-width prediction intervals across inputs, leading to unnecessary width for low-uncertainty predictions. While scaled CP addresses this by adapting the interval width to an input-dependent uncertainty estimate, prior work has neither systematically compared unscaled and scaled CP for multi-class object detection, nor integrated CP with a complementary uncertainty quantification method in this setting. We fill this gap by: (i) applying CP coordinate-wise to bounding box corners with a Bonferroni correction for box-level guarantees; (ii) scaling the resulting intervals using per-prediction aleatoric uncertainty estimates derived from a probabilistic object detector trained with loss attenuation, evaluated in uncalibrated and two calibrated variants; (iii) extending to a two-step pipeline that constructs prediction sets for the class using RAPS and conditions the conformalized bounding boxes on the predicted class set. Across three autonomous driving datasets (KITTI, BDD, CODA), including a cross-domain setting under distribution shift, scaled CP consistently improves interval sharpness over unscaled CP, achieving up to 19% higher IoU and 39% lower interval scores, without sacrificing coverage. Class-wise calibration further improves coverage for both variants with a negligible effect on sharpness. Together, these improvements yield more actionable uncertainty estimates for real-time, real-world object detection.

Autonomous driving risk identification aims to determine which observed object is likely to become safety-critical to the ego vehicle. Existing approaches typically predict scene-level accidents, infer risk objects indirectly from ego behavior, or apply geometric checks after trajectory forecasting, without directly using predicted ego--object relations for risk-source localization. We propose RiskWorld, an object-centric latent world model that identifies risk from the imagined evolution of each candidate relative to the ego vehicle. RiskWorld combines pretrained predictive video representations with structured ego--object histories, contextualizes observed interactions, and rolls relation-aware object states into the future using RSSM-style latent dynamics. It decodes the rollout into object-level risk scores, supported by auxiliary future-relation and temporal-risk predictions. Inference uses only observations up to the current time, while logged futures provide training supervision. On RiskBench, RiskWorld achieves the best overall F1 of 63.0% and the lowest false-alarm rate of 2.1%. Further analyses show that the learned rollout captures the evolution of object-level risk before critical events, while RiskWorld's selections preserve planning-critical information under filtered observation.

The ability to accurately assess and anticipate risks in safety-critical scenarios is crucial for autonomous driving systems. While existing research has made progress in collision prediction, accurately quantifying risk levels from monocular vision inputs remains challenging due to the complex dynamics of multi-agent interactions and the inherent uncertainty in real-world environments. To address these challenges, we present NSF-HRPT, a novel framework that combines learning-based perception with structured reasoning for quantitative risk assessment. Our approach features a Neural Semantic Field (NSF) that learns to model scene semantics, trajectory predictions, and probabilistic Time-to-Collision (TTC) distributions from simulation data. During inference, the pre-trained NSF serves as a prior for our Hierarchical Risk Perception Tree (HRPT), which enables efficient parallel computation and spatial reasoning about multi-agent risks. Additionally, we introduce a Sim2Real enhancement strategy that improves real-world applicability without retraining by incorporating priors from foundation models. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that our framework achieves state-of-the-art performance on synthetic benchmarks and delivers competitive, near-state-of-the-art results on real-world datasets for both TTC estimation accuracy and risk localization precision. The proposed method provides an effective solution for real-time risk awareness from monocular camera inputs.