Position: agentic AI orchestration should be Bayes-consistent

Modern coding agents pair LLM generators with various tools, including cheap diagnostics and expensive verifiers. The tool-use decisions are typically governed by orchestrators that often use fixed rules and ignore uncertainty. We formulate orchestration as cost-sensitive sequential hypothesis testing: a Bayesian controller maintains a belief over candidate correctness and dynamically decides whether to gather more evidence, refine the candidate, verify it, or stop. Across six generators and nine coding benchmarks, Bayesian control proves to be most valuable when verification is costly and critics are informative but imperfect. Beyond control, the belief state yields an interpretable correctness score that outperforms token-probability and raw tool-success baselines for uncertainty quantification.

Bayesian optimization (BO) has become the standard tool for sample-efficient optimization and owes its efficiency to uncertainty-aware search driven by generic statistical priors. Richer domain priors can improve BO in principle, but encoding them through tailored kernels or problem structure is difficult and rarely done in practice. LLMs can help sidestep this difficulty by making informal priors from natural language, code, and documentation directly available to the optimizer. However, existing LLM-based BO methods either insert the LLM into a fixed role (surrogate, acquisition proxy, or configuration interface) or hand it broad control, sacrificing the systematic exploration that makes BO reliable. We introduce agentic Bayesian optimization: a paradigm in which an LLM agent is the central decision maker in the BO loop while a Bayesian backend provides the uncertainty-aware optimization substrate. The agent configures the problem, queries the backend, selects and commits evaluations, and can revise the optimization strategy during the run by tightening bounds, switching acquisition functions, proposing targeted evaluations, or even reframing the problem following new instructions or observed evidence. We instantiate this idea in Sara, a surrogate-augmented autoresearch agent, and lenz, a modular BoTorch-based backend that the agent can inspect and modify through a structured interface. Across synthetic and real-world benchmarks, Sara preserves the reliability of state-of-the-art BO without prior knowledge, outperforms LLM-based baselines, and uses natural-language priors to improve beyond standard BO. We further demonstrate the practical value of agentic BO in dynamic settings, where Sara reconfigures the full optimization problem on the fly as requirements change, a capability not previously available in standard BO.

LLM agents increasingly rely on external inference conditions: prompts, tools, memory, SOPs, skills, and harness feedback. These assets can improve task execution without changing model weights, but they are often revised by heuristic reflection or by reusing observed successes and failures as if counts alone were reliable belief. We introduce \textbf{Bayesian-Agent}, a native and cross-harness framework that treats reusable skills and SOPs as hypotheses about whether a frozen model will succeed under a particular prompt, context, and harness environment. Bayesian-Agent records verified trajectory evidence, maintains a feature-conditioned categorical posterior over each skill, and maps posterior state into inspectable actions such as patch, split, compress, retire, and explore. Model-facing prompts receive executable guardrails and failure-mode patches, while posterior summaries remain available for audit. With \texttt{deepseek-v4-flash}, incremental repair improves SOP-Bench from 80% to 95%, Lifelong AgentBench from 90% to 100%, and RealFin-Bench from 45% to 65%. We further evaluate Bayesian-Agent's native backend and optional GenericAgent, mini-swe-agent, and Claude Code backends. The results include positive, negative, saturated, and case-study settings, suggesting that agent skill evolution is best viewed as posterior-guided harness optimization rather than uncalibrated prompt accumulation. The source code is available at https://github.com/DataArcTech/Bayesian-Agent.