Many consumer decisions are repeated choices under uncertainty. Standard models capture these decisions using Bayesian learning and dynamic programming: consumers update beliefs from feedback and use those beliefs to guide future choices. In many markets, however, learning does not restart when consumers enter a new context: prior experience with a brand, product, or provider can shape beliefs in later, related decisions. We study this cross-context knowledge transfer, or meta-learning, in sequential choice. We design a hierarchical laboratory task in which participants repeatedly choose among airlines across routes and observe noisy binary outcomes. Reduced-form evidence shows that participants improve not only within routes, but also across routes: they choose better airlines earlier in later routes and reduce pseudo-regret. To identify the mechanism behind this transfer, we compare human choices to a no-transfer benchmark and a fully integrated Bayesian meta-learning benchmark. In particular, we introduce a class of boundedly rational meta dynamic programming policies, BRMDP(D), that approximate full integration using a limited number of hyper-posterior draws, denoted by D. Trial-by-trial likelihood comparisons show that low-D boundedly rational meta-learning, especially BRMDP(1), fits participant behavior better than both no transfer and fully integrated Bayesian transfer. Consumers, therefore, transfer brand-level regularities across contexts, but through coarse representations of prior uncertainty. The findings imply that models of consumer learning should allow for approximate cross-context transfer, and that managerial counterfactuals based on either no-transfer or fully integrated learning can be misleading.
Human cognition is profoundly shaped by the environments in which it unfolds. Yet, it remains an open question whether learning and decision making can be explained as a principled adaptation to the statistical structure of real-world tasks. We introduce ecologically rational analysis, a computational framework that unifies the normative foundations of rational analysis with ecological grounding. Leveraging large language models to generate ecologically valid cognitive tasks at scale, and using meta-learning to derive rational models optimized for these environments, we develop a new class of learning algorithms: Ecologically Rational Meta-learned Inference (ERMI). ERMI internalizes the statistical regularities of naturalistic problem spaces and adapts flexibly to novel situations, without requiring hand-crafted heuristics or explicit parameter updates. We show that ERMI captures human behavior across 15 experiments spanning function learning, category learning, and decision making, outperforming several established cognitive models in trial-by-trial prediction. Our results suggest that much of human cognition may reflect adaptive alignment to the ecological structure of the problems we encounter in everyday life.
Akshay K. Jagadish, Mirko Thalmann, Julian Coda-Forno +2
Meta-learning has emerged as an effective paradigm for transferring knowledge across sequential bandit tasks. While substantial progress has been made for stochastic bandits and non-contextual adversarial bandits, meta-learning for adversarial linear contextual bandits (ALCBs) with random action sets remains largely unexplored. To address this problem, we propose Meta-LinEXP3, an online-within-online algorithm that constructs a predictable task-level prior from completed tasks to guide the inner LinEXP3 learner. For known context distributions, we develop a policy-centered estimator that achieves an intrinsic-dimension O(n) per-task regret bound. For unknown distributions, we introduce a past-only regularized moment estimator with an O(n2/3) leading regret term and explicit finite-sample error. We further establish a direct connection between prior accuracy and transfer regret, showing that increasingly accurate priors yield sublinear transfer-dependent regret across tasks. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of Meta-LinEXP3, including its application to structured hyperspectral tensor sampling.
It has long been recognized that humans have the ability to switch between fast, reactive decision-making and slower, deliberative planning. In this paper, we study the question of how to learn this ability, known as meta-reasoning, in artificial agents. We model reactive decision-making as a policy that directly maps state observations to actions. Such policies can be trained with reinforcement learning (RL) or imitation learning, but may generalize poorly outside of their training distribution. Alternatively, model-based decision-time planning is more likely to produce good actions across a broader set of states but requires additional computation time, which delays acting. In this work, we introduce an RL method for training a meta-reasoning policy that allocates computation by conditioning on a reactive-policy uncertainty score. This score enables it to predict when the reactive policy is likely to perform poorly and when planning is needed. We conduct an empirical study on motion planning and navigation environments, showing that this design enables the meta-reasoning policy to learn when the reactive policy provides a good-enough action versus when decision-time planning is needed. Additionally, we show that our design enables the meta-agent to shift toward fully reactive control as the reactive policy improves.