cs.ROMay 17, 2026

MUSE: Multimodal Uncertainty Quantification of State Estimation

Authors: Minkyung KimHenry CheBhargav ChandakaBhumsitt PramuanpornsatidChengyu YangSheng ChengXiaofeng WangNaira Hovakimyan+1 more

Abstract

Accurate visual state estimation has been a central topic in robotics with a wide range of applications in robot navigation, autonomous driving, and autonomous flight. Recent advances in robot perception have led to significant improvements in the accuracy and robustness of state estimation, yet a fundamental challenge remains in how to quantify and calibrate its precision, i.e., how confident we are in an estimate and whether failures can be detected. This issue is particularly pronounced in visual-inertial odometry (VIO), where the heteroscedastic and multimodal nature of the problem makes uncertainty quantification especially difficult. This paper introduces MUSE (Multimodal Uncertainty Quantification of State Estimation), a novel real-time learning-based framework that leverages the strong and efficient sequential modeling capacity of Mamba to estimate localization uncertainty from multiple asynchronous sensor streams. Experiments on both public and in-house datasets demonstrate that MUSE achieves superior reliability and robustness compared to existing uncertainty quantification methods, and ablation studies justify the benefits of its key design choices.

Explore similar work

Jun 18, 2026cs.RO

UNSEEN: Uncertainty-aware Navigation via Sparse Estimation in Unknown Environments

Visual navigation in unknown environments remains a core challenge in mobile robotics, especially for resource-constrained platforms. Most existing approaches rely on loosely coupled modular pipelines and strong assumptions on perception quality or environmental structure, often resorting to multi-modal sensor suites that increase system complexity and deployment cost. Vision-only navigation offers a lightweight alternative, but its performance degrades severely under motion blur, low texture, and illumination changes, largely because they neglect the tight coupling between commanded motion and perception. While perception-aware methods partially address this issue, they typically optimize individual modules and fail to propagate uncertainty consistently across the navigation stack. In this paper, we present UNSEEN, a unified uncertainty- and perception-aware navigation framework that explicitly couples localization, mapping, and planning using only a front-mounted camera. UNSEEN estimates sparse maps and robot poses with associated uncertainties at 6Hz, and leverages them to plan trajectories that jointly optimize task progress and estimation accuracy in receding-horizon. Simulations and extensive real-world experiments in unknown environments demonstrate the robustness of the proposed approach, with UNSEEN-SLAM reducing absolute translational error by 9.8% and UNSEEN-Plan improving estimation accuracy by up to 45% compared to state-of-the-art methods, while achieving a 100% task success rate.
Tommaso Faraci, Marco Camurri, Daniele Fontanelli +1
Jun 3, 2026cs.RO

Uncertainty-Aware Adaptive Sensor Fusion for Autonomous Navigation

This work introduces a hybrid deep learning approach integrated with an Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) to enhance pose estimation accuracy in Visual-Inertial Odometry (VIO) for autonomous navigation. The proposed model employs a Vision Transformer (ViT) network to effectively capture temporal dependencies from inertial measurement unit (IMU) data and utilizes a Multiscale Convolutional Neural Network (MCNN) to learn optical flow-based motion cues from visual data. An adaptive sensor fusion module dynamically weights IMU and visual features by leveraging estimated uncertainty, thus improving robustness in diverse and challenging environmental conditions. Additionally, a novel uncertainty-aware loss function is proposed to explicitly incorporate prediction uncertainty into the learning process, enabling robust and accurate navigation under noisy, incomplete, or unreliable sensor inputs. Comprehensive evaluations of the KITTI dataset demonstrate that the proposed method significantly outperforms baseline approaches, achieving superior performance in terms of Absolute Trajectory Error (ATE) and Relative Pose Error (RPE). The lightweight and computationally efficient model processes data at 155 FPS on an NVIDIA A100 GPU, making it highly suitable for deployment in resource-constrained autonomous systems.
Simegnew Yihunie Alaba, Yuichi Motai
May 18, 2026cs.RO

FUSE: A Framework for Unified State Estimation in Vehicular and Robotic SLAM Systems

Tightly coupled SLAM formulations under mixed-rate sensing often bind temporal processing, local geometric association, estimator formulation, and map-update policy into method-specific designs. Such binding makes it difficult to vary one design choice without re-engineering the rest of the state-estimation process. This paper presents FUSE, a framework for unified state estimation in vehicular and robotic SLAM systems. FUSE organizes the state-estimation interface around observation ingestion, propagation, update, and state query, and uses this interface to separate temporal processing, residual-ready local geometric association, estimator formulation, and map-update policy. A LiDAR--IMU instantiation is developed to examine the framework under mixed-rate sensing and directional degeneracy, where high-rate inertial propagation, LiDAR-triggered geometric update, residual screening, and degeneracy-aware correction operate through the same interface boundaries. On a 418~m loop-corridor sequence, the instantiation reports a 1.626 m end-to-end trajectory error, corresponding to a 7.9% relative error reduction compared with Faster-LIO, the lowest-error baseline on this sequence. The results support FUSE as a framework for organizing state-estimation design choices and show how the evaluated instantiation regularizes updates along weakly observable directions.
Wei Wu, Honglin Chen, Wenhan Cao +7