Binary Road Surface Classification Using Machine Learning on Production Vehicle Signals During Cruising

Conventional traction control architectures intervene only after the adhesion limit of a tire has already been breached. This paper investigates whether Rolling Split Conformal Prediction , monitoring the volatility of non-conformity residuals from a per-driver Random Forest model of expected slip behavior , can serve as a statistically grounded pre-incident warning signal, ahead of gross traction loss. Unlike an earlier internal draft of this work, the evaluation reported here corrects a confound in the slip proxy (vehicle speed is included as an explicit model feature, not left implicit in the target's denominator), uses every racing lap for each driver rather than only the fastest lap, and is scored against real, timestamped incident labels extracted from FIA Race Control Messages and track-limits lap deletions rather than narrated post-hoc. The result is negative: across 19 drivers and 55,563 test-phase telemetry samples, the rolling-volatility detector achieves a mean precision of essentially 0.0 and mean recall of 0.0 against 14 ground-truth incidents, while flagging on average 15.3% of all samples as anomalous , too high a false-alarm rate for any early-warning use. A static 95th-percentile threshold baseline performs no better in any way that would justify the added complexity of the conformal-volatility formulation. Residual autocorrelation diagnostics show the split-conformal exchangeability assumption is violated for every driver (Ljung-Box p < 0.001, n = 19/19), which is one plausible driver of the high false-alarm rate. We report this as a methodologically rigorous negative finding, diagnose its likely causes, and outline what a genuinely predictive version of this approach would require.

Accurate wheel slip estimation is essential for autonomous lunar rover mobility and navigation. Machine Learning models trained on terrestrial data generalize poorly to lunar terrain, and real lunar datasets are scarce due to the limited number of missions and costly data acquisition. We present Fleet-to-Lab, a transfer learning framework that leverages proprioceptive data collected by previously deployed heterogeneous lunar rovers to mitigate the Earth-Moon domain gap in slip estimation for a future deployable unit. We fuse several heterogeneous expert models into a single architecture, using a modest dataset collected after the rover deployment. We propose AcoMerge, a new hybrid swarm-intelligence algorithm that performs model fusion by searching for an optimal combi- nation of expert parameters. Experiments conducted in a high- fidelity physics simulation show balanced accuracy and macro- F1 improvements compared to deep model fusion baselines. AcoMerge exhibits competitive performance with joint training on deep architectures, while achieving higher macro-F1 and balanced accuracy on a smaller model. Overall, our framework shows model fusion as a possible transfer learning alternative for slippage estimation in space robotic missions with limited data.

High-quality driving data are essential for autonomous-driving systems and generative world models. However, rare and safety-critical scenarios involving adverse weather, braking under low tire--road friction, and uneven road geometry are costly and risky to collect at scale. Existing video-generation and 3D Gaussian editing methods can modify weather appearance or road geometry, but typically do not couple these edits with tire--road interaction and vehicle dynamics. As a result, an edited video may retain its original trajectory even when the modified road condition should alter braking, wheel slip, load transfer, and ego-camera motion. We present muSync-GS, a physics-synchronized framework for driving video synthesis under adverse-weather and road-elevation hazards. A precipitation-derived road-surface condition jointly controls road appearance and tire friction, while a shared road-elevation profile drives both visible road-geometry editing and axle excitation. A calibrated vehicle model predicts speed, slip ratio, normal loads, and pitch for constructing the ego-camera trajectory and synchronized physical annotations. On 12 held-out CarSim cases spanning precipitation levels, brake inputs, and road-profile parameters, the model achieves mean case-wise RMSEs of 0.0273 m/s for speed, 0.0590 degrees for pitch, 0.0101 for slip ratio, and 26.61 N for per-wheel normal load. Together with the reconstructed-scene experiments, these results show that muSync-GS accurately reproduces vehicle responses under held-out controls while synchronizing them with controllable scene edits and ego-camera motion.