Kalman filters based on the Embedded Latent Transfer Operators (ELTO) emerge as novel statistical tools for sequential state estimation. However, a critical limitation stems from their use of simplified noise models, which fail to dynamically adapt to non-stationary processes. To address this limitation, we introduce an ELTO-based Bayesian filtering approach with a new structured parameterization for the filter's noise model. This parameterization enables structured noise adaptation, which couples the data-driven learning of an optimal time-invariant noise model with dynamic parameter adaptation that responds to changes in dynamics within non-stationary processes. Empirical results show that our structured noise adaptation improves the filter's dynamic state estimation performance in noisy, time-varying environments.
State estimation is a fundamental problem in control and signal processing, for which the Kalman Filter provides an optimal solution under linear dynamics, Gaussian noise, and known noise covariances. However, these assumptions often fail in realistic sensing settings such as Doppler radar and LiDAR. In these cases, the optimal estimator is inherently nonlinear, which leads to systematic performance degradation. This creates a performance gap that cannot be eliminated by tuning the noise covariance parameters (i.e., the process and measurement noise in the Kalman Filter) alone. To address this limitation, we propose Kalman Evolve, a framework for discovering improved filtering algorithms by jointly optimizing both noise parameters and the update structure. Our approach leverages large language models (LLMs) as a structured prior over program space, enabling the generation of interpretable, non-affine modifications to the classical Kalman filter while preserving its recursive form. We provide analytical results establishing the suboptimality of affine estimators under common nonlinear sensing models, motivating the need for structure-aware updates. Across a range of synthetic and real-world tracking benchmarks, including Doppler radar, LiDAR-based localization, and pedestrian tracking, the discovered algorithms consistently improve over strong baselines such as the Optimized Kalman Filter, achieving up to 12% reduction in RMSE. These results suggest that optimizing the structure of the Kalman filter, rather than only its parameters, provides a practical and interpretable way to improve state estimation.
Kalman filtering performance is highly sensitive to model mismatch and noise covariance tuning. Learning-based approaches address these limitations but typically rely on supervised training with large datasets and do not produce consistent uncertainty estimates. In this paper, we propose a self-supervised Hybrid Adaptive Kalman Filter that learns structured corrections to system dynamics and process noise covariance from measurements alone while preserving the probabilistic structure of the filter. This allows the innovation likelihood to be computed and subsequently used for model classification via generalized Bayesian inference. Experimental results on real-world and simulated datasets demonstrate improved estimation accuracy and statistical consistency as well as robust classification performance across both low-data and large-data scenarios.
Nonlinear state estimation requires sequentially fusing model-based predictions with noisy measurements. Under imperfect dynamics and unknown, time-varying noise statistics, this fusion can degrade in both accuracy and statistical consistency. Existing learning-aided filters largely treat accuracy and uncertainty estimation separately, limiting their ability to correct model-mismatch-induced bias while retaining an explicit, calibrated posterior covariance. This paper introduces Unscented KalmanNet (UKN), a model-based deep learning architecture that extends the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) with learned mechanisms for these two sources of filtering error while preserving explicit posterior covariance propagation. NoiseNet learns time-varying process and measurement covariances as bounded multiplicative corrections to baseline covariances, guaranteeing positive definiteness, while GainNet learns a bounded residual correction to the analytical UKF gain to compensate for model-mismatch-induced bias. A calibration-aware training objective couples state error with posterior covariance and innovation consistency terms through adaptive weighting, jointly optimizing accuracy and calibration. UKN is benchmarked against UKF, KalmanNet, and Bayesian KalmanNet on three synthetic systems and real-flight UZH-FPV data. It achieves the lowest state-estimation error in all four examples and reduces RMSE by 26.4-49.7% compared with UKF in the synthetic cases. Leave-one-sequence-out cross-validation over 11 flights shows 22.4% and 34.3% reductions in mean position and velocity RMSE, respectively. UKN also yields the lowest fold-to-fold variability, with dimension-normalized NEES and empirical coverage closest to nominal values among covariance-reporting filters. These results show that structured learned adaptation improves estimation accuracy while retaining calibrated uncertainty.