Short-Horizon Position Accuracy of Single-Track Models: Implications for Motion Planning of Autonomous Vehicles

Autonomous race cars, such as in Formula Student Driverless, operate close to their physical handling limits. The resulting highly nonlinear vehicle behavior increases the path tracking complexity, especially on narrow tracks. Model Predictive Control (MPC) is commonly used to address this issue, a method whose performance is closely tied to the accuracy of the underlying prediction model. This paper presents a novel, real-time capable prediction model for autonomous race cars that adjusts to changing conditions by combining information from past runs and the current driving situation. Our model is divided into three consecutive submodels: a nominal Kinematic Bicycle Model, an offline Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR) model, and an online Sparse Gaussian Process Regression (SGPR) model. The proposed approach enables efficient integration of all available data without significantly increasing computational cost, ensuring high prediction accuracy and a quantitative uncertainty assessment right from the start of the run. Compared to existing approaches, an improvement in prediction accuracy of up to 57% was achieved. Further, we successfully demonstrated the practical applicability of the model within an MPC-based path tracking controller on a real Formula Student race car.

Model Predictive Control (MPC) for autonomous navigation faces a fundamental trade-off between model accuracy and real-time efficiency. High-fidelity dynamics models can accurately predict complex vehicle-terrain interactions during trajectory rollouts, but incur significant computational cost, increasing inference latency and reducing control frequency. Conversely, lightweight models enable fast updates and dense sampling, yet may produce erroneous predictions under safety-critical conditions, potentially leading to catastrophic failures such as vehicle rollover. To address this trade-off, we propose Adaptive Dynamics Orchestration (ADO), a framework that dynamically selects the most appropriate dynamics model for the current navigation context. ADO maintains a library of models spanning diverse accuracy-efficiency profiles and continuously refines terrain-conditioned performance estimates using residual errors from online counterfactual rollouts, where executed control actions are replayed across the model library to assess predictive discrepancy. These estimates guide model selection in real time, balancing computational efficiency and predictive accuracy. Real-world experiments on an off-road ground robot demonstrate that ADO significantly reduces modeling error compared to a fixed low-latency baseline, while approaching the accuracy of the highest-fidelity model without incurring its computational cost, resulting in more reliable and effective navigation in challenging terrain.

Forecasting precise future motion of surrounding agents is essential for reliable autonomous vehicles. However, as the demand for longer prediction horizons increases, existing endpoint-completion or iterative-refine methods increasingly struggle with weak guidance and compounding errors. To tackle the long-horizon prediction challenge, we propose Pivot-Centric Trajectory Prediction (PCTP). By introducing pivots'' and focusing on predicting pivot points along extended trajectories, we divide the long-term prediction task into short-term sub-tasks at various scales. Specifically, PCTP decouples the long-term trajectory predicting process into two processes: pivot prediction and pivot-based trajectory refinement. The pivot prediction process aims to utilize global map context and agent-to-agent interactions to identify these pivot points'', while the pivot-based trajectory refinement process focuses on local map details and refines the short-term trajectory based on predicted ``pivot points''. Compared with existing methods, PCTP provides more intermediate guidance while reducing compounding errors. Moreover, PCTP is a flexible approach that can be integrated into most state-of-the-art trajectory prediction models. Experimental results show that PCTP improves the prediction accuracy of leading models on both Argoverse I and Argoverse II datasets with minimal impact on model size. Specifically, PCTP combined with QCNet outperforms all published ensemble-free methods on the Argoverse II leaderboard at submission.