Risk-Aware Motion Planning with Learned Trajectory Primitives and Probabilistic Safety Assessment

Safe and explainable motion planning remains a central challenge in autonomous driving. While rule-based planners offer predictable and explainable behavior, they often fail to grasp the complexity and uncertainty of real-world traffic. Conversely, learned planners exhibit strong adaptability but suffer from reduced transparency and occasional safety violations. We introduce Mosaic, a framework for structured decision-making that integrates both paradigms through arbitration graphs. By decoupling trajectory verification and selection from the generation of trajectories by individual planners, every decision becomes transparent and traceable. This separation lets verification and trajectory selection contribute independently: centralized verification acts as a safety floor, reducing at-fault collisions from 25 for each standalone planner to 16. In contrast, per-step trajectory selection acts as a performance ceiling, combining the complementary strengths of a rule-based and a learned planner. In experimental evaluation on nuPlan, Mosaic achieves 95.56 CLS-NR and 94.18 CLS-R on the Val14 closed-loop benchmark, setting a new state of the art. On the interPlan benchmark, focused on highly interactive and out-of-distribution scenarios, Mosaic scores 54.10 CLS-R, outperforming its best constituent planner by 22.8% -- all without retraining or requiring additional data. The code is available at github.com/KIT-MRT/mosaic.

Accurate and reliable vehicle trajectory prediction is essential for safe autonomous driving. Recent studies have incorporated safety risk into trajectory prediction to quantify dangers posed by surrounding agents. However, most risk-aware approaches use past risk information as a secondary signal to help guide decisions, overlooking its future evolution and uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a risk horizon profiling (RHP) module that incorporates a continuous, learnable potential field model for risk-aware trajectory prediction. The RHP module calculates the spatial-temporal proximity of surrounding objects to profile risk distributions across future horizons, which supports better trajectory prediction by adaptively identifying what human drivers perceive as critical moments. We evaluate our method on two datasets from different driving settings, highD for highway corridors and SHRP2 for urban streets, which cover diverse risk scenarios including safe, near-crash, and crash events. Compared to the baseline methods, our framework achieves a 25.0% reduction in 5s RMSE on the highD dataset and a 29.1% reduction in 5s minFDE on SHRP2. These results indicate strong performance for both short and long horizon prediction and robust generalization across highway and urban scenarios. The proposed method enables more realistic AV path planning and strategic selection, thereby supporting safer autonomous driving and more advanced driver-assistance systems. The source code for this work is available at: https://github.com/bilab-nyu/RHP

Safe motion planning in automated driving requires anticipating evolving traffic risks and deciding when to revise the current planned trajectory. We introduce RiskWorld, a risk-aware world modeling framework for shared occupancy forecasting and selective trajectory replacement. Spatial risk fields and temporal actor context are fused with visual bird's-eye-view features. Flow-guided evolution transports occupancy and scene features, while signed residuals correct occupancy after transport. One forecast is generated per planning step and reused across candidates. Each candidate is compared with a current-state persistence reference, yielding a nonnegative collision-score correction. The trajectory selected by current-world evaluation serves as the planning anchor and is replaced only when additional predicted risk triggers intervention and an alternative satisfies component-wise constraints on predicted risk and trajectory error. Candidate geometries remain unchanged. We evaluate RiskWorld for open-loop planning on nuScenes using camera features, annotation-derived current and historical actor states, and dataset-provided map context. RiskWorld achieves the lowest collision rate at a long evaluation horizon of 3 s, and the second-best average L2 error among various state-of-the-art baselines, while running at 11.5 FPS on a single NVIDIA RTX 4090 with 90.81 M parameters. Within-setting ablations show that RiskWorld achieves lower collision rates than the current-state rescoring baseline, while forecast reuse enables additional candidates to be evaluated at low marginal computational cost.