Traditional clinical prediction models rely on task-specific pipelines and curated, structured data, which scale poorly and underutilize unstructured text. To address this, we introduce future querying, a paradigm that probes whether large language models (LLMs) can function as implicit medical world models by evaluating their ability to answer time-indexed clinical queries about a patient's future. Our framework operates on unstructured clinical documentation using endpoint-agnostic training, enabling a single model to answer diverse clinical queries over patient trajectories without manual feature engineering or task-specific retraining. We show that small, locally fine-tuned open-weight models can match or approach larger proprietary systems, making the framework suitable for privacy-preserving, on-premise deployment. Evaluated on a new synthetic medical reports dataset and real ICU notes from the MIMIC-IV dataset, our results provide encouraging evidence that LLMs can capture aspects of clinical dynamics.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: The future querying paradigm. A patient timeline p is partitioned by a virtual present T^ into an observed history and a hidden future. Given the historical context and a flexible, time-indexed clinical query qk , we investigate whether an LLM can serve as an implicit medical world model to predict the correct answer ak derived from the patient’s actual future timeline.
Figure 2: (Left) Characteristics of the two future querying datasets; values are reported as median (min–max). (Right) Distribution of query types computed on the test fold. Queries span six semantic categories and are binned by the time gap between the simulated present and the target clinical event.
Figure 3: Baseline performance of off-the-shelf LLMs on the Synthetic Medical Reports and MIMIC ICU Notes benchmarks. The top legend row shows models with reasoning capabilities, evaluated using OpenRouter’s default settings. For gemini-2.5-flash and claude-sonnet-5 , these defaults did not enable reasoning. Due to computational costs, three models were evaluated on a 4% subset of the MIMIC ICU Notes test set and are shown with reduced opacity.
Figure 4: Effect of fine-tuning on future querying accuracy with respect to the accuracy of proprietary models.
Deploying clinical ML is slow and brittle: models that work at one hospital often degrade under distribution shifts at the next. In this work, we study a simple question -- can large language models (LLMs) create portable patient embeddings i.e. representations of patients enable a downstream predictor built on one hospital to be used elsewhere with minimal-to-no retraining and fine-tuning. To do so, we map from irregular ICU time series onto concise natural language summaries using a frozen LLM, then embed each summary with a frozen text embedding model to obtain a fixed length vector capable of serving as input to a variety of downstream predictors. Across three cohorts (MIMIC-IV, HIRID, PPICU), on multiple clinically grounded forecasting and classification tasks, we find that our approach is simple, easy to use and competitive with in-distribution with grid imputation, self-supervised representation learning, and time series foundation models, while exhibiting smaller relative performance drops when transferring to new hospitals. We study the variation in performance across prompt design, with structured prompts being crucial to reducing the variance of the predictive models without altering mean accuracy. We find that using these portable representations improves few-shot learning and does not increase demographic recoverability of age or sex relative to baselines, suggesting little additional privacy risk. Our work points to the potential that LLMs hold as tools to enable the scalable deployment of production grade predictive models by reducing the engineering overhead.
Zongliang Ji, Yifei Sun, Andre Amaral +2
University of Toronto, Canada · Vector Institute, Canada · Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Canada
Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have gained significant traction in medical domain, especially in developing a QA systems to Medical QA systems for enhancing access to healthcare in low-resourced settings. This paper compares five LLMs deployed between April 2024 and August 2025 for medical QA, using the iCliniq dataset, containing 38,000 medical questions and answers of diverse specialties. Our models include Llama-3-8B-Instruct, Llama 3.2 3B, Llama 3.3 70B Instruct, Llama-4-Maverick-17B-128E-Instruct, and GPT-5-mini. We are using a zero-shot evaluation methodology and using BLEU and ROUGE metrics to evaluate performance without specialized fine-tuning. Our results show that larger models like Llama 3.3 70B Instruct outperform smaller models, consistent with observed scaling benefits in clinical tasks. It is notable that, Llama-4-Maverick-17B exhibited more competitive results, thus highlighting evasion efficiency trade-offs relevant for practical deployment. These findings align with advancements in LLM capabilities toward professional-level medical reasoning and reflect the increasing feasibility of LLM-supported QA systems in the real clinical environments. This benchmark aims to serve as a standardized setting for future study to minimize model size, computational resources and to maximize clinical utility in medical NLP applications.
Shefayat E Shams Adib, Ahmed Alfey Sani, Ekramul Alam Esham +2
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Islamic University of Technology, Gazipur, Bangladesh
Predicting future clinical outcomes from electronic health records (EHR) remains challenging due to the complexity and heterogeneity of patient data. LLMs have shown strong potential for such predictive tasks, yet existing approaches mainly focus on enhancing medical knowledge through distillation or RAG while relying on the model's internal ability to interpret contextual information. In this work, we present ReMedi (Reasoner for Medical Clinical Prediction), a framework for improving clinical outcome prediction from EHR. ReMedi generates rationale-answer pairs using a challenging sample regeneration mechanism for complex clinical questions, which leverages ground-truth answers as hints to enhance reasoning for further fine-tuning and preference tuning. ReMedi integrates ground-truth outcome guidance into the preference data construction loop, regenerating rationale-answer variants. By tuning on these rationale-answer pairs, the model improves its predictive performance. Experiments on multiple EHR prediction tasks demonstrate substantial gains of up to 19.9 percent over state-of-the-art baselines in terms of F1 score, underscoring ReMedi's effectiveness in real-world clinical prediction.
Yushi Cao, Yiming Chen, Hongchao Jiang +2
ASUS Intelligent Cloud Services (AICS), Singapore · NTU Artificial Intelligence Center of Research Excellence (NTU AI-CoRE), Taiwan · National University of Singapore, Singapore