Too Rare to Learn: Prescribed Cyclone Tracks Degrade a Bay of Bengal Ocean Emulator

Machine-learning (ML) emulators for atmospheric processes have advanced rapidly in recent years, transforming weather forecasting. Although early ML ocean forecasting models now exist, they remain less developed than their atmospheric counterparts. Unlike the atmosphere, much of the ocean's kinetic energy resides in mesoscale eddies whose characteristic spatial scales are approximately an order of magnitude smaller than those of comparable atmospheric features. Moreover, complex coastlines, narrow straits, and ice-covered seas make boundary representation a central challenge that atmospheric models do not face. Consequently, numerical ocean simulations commonly use locally refined or even completely unstructured meshes. However, their data-driven counterparts have so far been built around latitude-longitude grids. We present HClimRep-Ocean, an ocean emulator that operates directly on the native unstructured mesh of FESOM2. The emulator is trained on a 209-year AWI-CM3 control integration and is run without atmospheric forcing, receiving the atmospheric state only at initialisation time, which isolates the predictability carried by the ocean state itself. Skill is strongly field-dependent: for currents, HClimRep-Ocean outperforms every reference at 30 day forecast, whereas for temperature and salinity a damped-anomaly persistence forecast remains the more accurate estimator. This behaviour is physically interpretable: current variability is largely geostrophic and internally generated, whereas sea-surface temperature and salinity fluctuations are driven by atmospheric forcing through weather state. Evaluated independently on the OceanBench benchmark, a reanalysis-trained variant of HClimRep-Ocean achieves the lowest RMSE against GLORYS reanalysis among all assessed systems, confirming the competitiveness of the native-mesh approach.

Ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) are essential to climate science but computationally expensive, limiting ensemble size and forcing scenarios. Neural emulators promise orders-of-magnitude speedups, yet existing ocean emulators have not combined fine spatial resolution with multi-year autoregressive rollouts. Samudra, the first autoregressive neural ocean emulator to produce multi-decade global rollouts, is limited to $1^\circ$ resolution and exhibits two long-horizon failure modes: variance collapse, the loss of temporal variability, and imprinting artifacts, in which velocity patterns leak into deep-ocean fields. We present Samudra 2, which introduces a wider U-Net backbone with modified ConvNeXt-style blocks and a reduced block-internal expansion factor, together with a dynamic loss that reweights output channels according to their prediction errors, strengthening gradients for slow-evolving deep-ocean fields. At $1^\circ$, Samudra 2 increases upper-ocean global-mean temperature $R^2$ from 0.56 to 0.87 and reduces deep-ocean temperature error by roughly sevenfold. The same architecture scales to $1/2^\circ$ and $1/4^\circ$ over approximately 8-year autoregressive rollouts, recovering mesoscale eddies and sharp western boundary currents. Running on a single GPU, Samudra 2 enables larger ensembles for sea-level projections, ocean heat uptake, and climate variability studies. All artifacts are publicly available: project page, code, checkpoints, documentation.

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting is societally critical, supporting decision-making in sectors ranging from water and agricultural management to disaster risk reduction, energy planning, and insurance. Achieving reliable predictions at these timescales requires representing the ocean and its dynamics, but traditional physics-based Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs), are computationally expensive and difficult to develop and improve because of the code complexity. In this work, we propose Neptune, an end-to-end data-driven framework for global ocean and sea-ice components emulation tailored for S2S timescales, up to 60 days. Neptune combines Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Spherical Fourier Neural Operators (SFNOs) to effectively capture local features and global cross-scale interactions, thereby obtaining a coherent representation of the ocean state. Forced by prescribed daily atmospheric fields, Neptune emulates ocean state variables, from temperature and salinity, to zonal and meridional currents, from sea surface height to sea ice thickness and concentration, with daily outputs at the ocean surface and through the water column. Specifically, we propose two variants of Neptune, Neptune-1 and Neptune-025, capable of emulating the ocean state at 1° and 0.25° resolution, respectively. Evaluated against a suite of metrics, including statistics (RMSE, CRPS and ACC), physical coherency (Ocean Heat Content, Eddy Kinetic Energy and Ice Brier Score) and climate indices (ENSO and Z20 metric, IOD), Neptune successfully reproduces the spatio-temporal evolution of the oceanic fields up to 60 days, and is stable over long timescales. Neptune provides compelling evidence that end-to-end data-driven ocean emulators can become a powerful component of next-generation S2S forecasting systems, emulating ocean state at high spatio-temporal resolution.