SeaCausal-FL: Federated Fuzzy Causal Learning for Maritime IoT Fault Diagnosis and Counterfactual Reasoning

Open-access datasets for marine-engine predictive maintenance remain scarce, particularly those from controlled fault experiments with documented operating conditions, subsystem-level interventions and system-level measurements. This work presents the Marine Engine Fault Dataset, an openly available dataset from a turbocharged, intercooled three-cylinder marine diesel engine operated on a testbed under both reference and fault-scenario conditions. The experimental campaign combined a reference-performance program across the 30-90% load range with scenario-based tests in which abnormal conditions were introduced after stabilized fault-free operation, enabling controlled comparison between baseline and fault-affected behaviour. Five anomaly classes were implemented through physical interventions affecting major engine subsystems: cooling-water pump cavitation, compressor air-filter clogging, air-cooler fouling, injection-valve nozzle clogging and turbine degradation induced through increased exhaust-side restriction. The released data comprise multi-sensor time-series of operating, thermal, pressure, flow and combustion-related variables, with a separate reference-performance record and metadata for structured reuse. Technical validation shows that the reference measurements remain physically coherent across the operating range and that the imposed anomalies produce interpretable response patterns consistent with the affected subsystems, including progressively distinguishable behaviour where different severities were implemented. By combining controlled fault realization, multi-load operation and system-level measurements within a real marine-engine platform, the dataset provides a well-documented benchmark for anomaly detection, fault diagnosis, degradation modelling and related condition-monitoring studies in maritime machinery.

Predicting when maritime systems require maintenance can be critical, avoiding hazards and costly consequences. To address this problem, this paper proposes an explainable decision-making framework that integrates a neuro-fuzzy prediction model with a two-stage explainable component. The first stage of this component produces feature-attribution explanations, using gradient-based saliency maps, and the second stage extracts local rules using a fuzzy decision tree. The proposed framework is generic and can be integrated into any deep learning-based approach, rendering it explainable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first fuzzy logic-based framework enabling both feature-level and local rule-based explanations of black box models. This approach aims to foster trustworthiness in decision making through user-understandable machine inferences. The performance of the proposed framework using a deep residual-based neural backbone is evaluated on various general-purpose public benchmark datasets, and its utility in maritime is demonstrated in the context of early fault detection in a naval propulsion system dataset. The results indicate that it can provide predictions outperforming relevant state-of-the-art approaches, with an average AUC-ROC (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve) value, reaching up to 99%, while offering the advantage of explainability.

Can a learned model capture how faults propagate through a large-scale network and use this knowledge to causally attribute customer impact to its underlying root cause? Existing root cause analysis techniques often rely on static rules, correlation heuristics, or topology-local reasoning, which struggle to generalize in dynamic environments where faults propagate across complex physical and logical dependencies. We present NetCause, a self-supervised learning-based framework that models network incidents as graph-temporal processes and uses counterfactual simulation to rank candidate root causes. This approach produces an interpretable ranking of root cause hypotheses and integrates naturally with operator-defined mitigation and remediation actions. We train the model on over 1,500 incidents collected over six months from a leading cloud provider's production network and evaluate it on 31 expert-labeled incidents. NetCause consistently improves root cause ranking quality in the regime most relevant to operational decision-making, achieving a 16.1% accuracy improvement over a rule-based heuristic baseline. While training is computationally intensive, inference is lightweight, requiring only seconds of GPU runtime per incident (well below typical telemetry collection latencies).